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Sunday, September 11

11th Sep - Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week’s roundup-post is here.

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Weekly ScoreboardBetween The Hedges

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

Weekly Market ReviewZH
Bondmageddon Sparks Crude Carnage & Biggest Stock Slump In 7 Months

US Schedule for WeekBill McBride

Economic Calendar – Berenberg

5 Things to Watch in US Economics Calendar – WSJ

Global Week AheadBB
U.S. Retail Sales, BOE Rate, SNB Outlook * World according to Jamie Dimon; Oracle, Hermes post earnings * Boeing unveils T-X trainer; U.S. Open championship concludes

EU Week AheadWSJ
Bratislava Summit, King’s Grilling, Wifi Liability

Wall St Week AheadReuters
Bank rally on shaky legs as traders assess rate hike odds

Weighing the Week Ahead Jeff Miller
The calendar has little important data. Friday’s sharp selling was widely attributed to the fear of a Fed rate hike in September. Is it time? Should we fear the Fed?

EcoWeekBNP Paribas
Eurozone: The ECB left its policy unchanged in september. But QE changes are about to come. Monetary policy can’t be the only game in town. Excess savings is a problem. Mr. Draghi favours fiscal stimulus in Germany US: The term premium reflects the extra reward bond investors receive for taking duration risk. In the US, this premium on treasury bills is now very negative, which is a source of concern

Week Ahead: BoE on hold Nordea
The UK economy is by now holding up better than expected, and that’s why we expect no policy changes from the Bank of England next Thursday. Next week’s US figures will give an important indication of whether the surprisingly low August ISM surveys were, as we believe, mere noise or a signal of a weakening economy. From the Nordics, we will get inflation numbers and the Norwegian network report.

Weekly: Decisive week for monetary policy outlook Danske Bank
US retail sales * UK Bank of England meeting, jobs-, inflation- and retail sales data * Euro area labour market data

Strategy: Politics, ECB inaction and risk of steeper yield curves Danske Bank
The US election could be a major market theme in the autumn * A Trump win could lead to
ballooning US public debt level and is likely to be USD bearish * Over the medium-term, the
German bond curve could steepen on ECB inaction * Softer US data supports our call that the Fed will stay on hold this year * We are an EM bull on the Fed, flows and China news but a Trump win is a risk to our view.

UK Week AheadHandelsbanken

Week AheadHandelsbanken

Global Week Ahead Scotiabank
US: Blackout ahead of Fed meeting * Asia: China’s lending cools down, no crisis * Europe: Bank of England meeting

Weekly FX Sentiment Report Scotiabank

Weekly Market OutlookMoody’s

Macro Weekly: Has the ECB lost faith in QE? ABN AMRO
ECB keeps policy unchanged despite low inflation outlook…it still sees positive effects of QE though effectiveness is diminishing * Calls for governments to act seem futile while ECB policy regime change looks unlikely * A technology shock would save the day but short of that we are stuck in a low growth, low inflation, low interest rate world, making the eurozone vulnerable to the next economic shock

Speculative PositioningMarc Chandler
Speculators Trim Long Foreign Currency Exposure in the Futures Market

FX OutlookMarc Chandler
Dollar Proves Resilient as Market Rates Rise

Week AheadMarc Chandler
The week ahead will likely be shaped by a combination of what happened last week and what will happen the week after next.  The end of last week saw a sell-off in equities and bonds and a recovery in the US dollar. The week after next the FOMC and BOJ meet in apparently live meetings, meaning that policies may be adjusted.  
FX 4 Next Week: ECB letdown sparks seismic shift TF
Soft US data and an underwhelming ECB outing have engineered a sudden shift in sentiment that could spill over into next week as the market reconsiders the validity and power of the central bank put that has been driving carry trades since February.