Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s roundup-post is here.
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LAST WEEK
Bondmageddon
Sparks Crude Carnage & Biggest Stock Slump In 7 Months
NEXT WEEK
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
5
Things to Watch in US Economics Calendar – WSJ
Global Week Ahead – BB
U.S. Retail Sales, BOE
Rate, SNB Outlook * World according to Jamie Dimon; Oracle, Hermes post
earnings * Boeing unveils T-X trainer; U.S. Open championship concludes
Bratislava
Summit, King’s Grilling, Wifi Liability
Bank
rally on shaky legs as traders assess rate hike odds
Weighing the Week
Ahead –
Jeff Miller
The
calendar has little important data. Friday’s sharp selling was widely
attributed to the fear of a Fed rate hike in September. Is it time? Should we
fear the Fed?
Eurozone: The ECB left its
policy unchanged in september. But QE changes are about to come. Monetary
policy can’t be the only game in town. Excess savings is a problem. Mr. Draghi
favours fiscal stimulus in Germany US:
The term premium reflects the extra reward bond investors receive for taking
duration risk. In the US, this premium on treasury bills is now very negative,
which is a source of concern
The
UK economy is by now holding up better than expected, and that’s why we expect
no policy changes from the Bank of England next Thursday. Next week’s US
figures will give an important indication of whether the surprisingly low
August ISM surveys were, as we believe, mere noise or a signal of a weakening
economy. From the Nordics, we will get inflation numbers and the Norwegian
network report.
US
retail sales * UK Bank of England meeting, jobs-, inflation- and retail sales
data * Euro area labour market data
The
US election could be a major market theme in the autumn * A Trump win could
lead to
ballooning
US public debt level and is likely to be USD bearish * Over the medium-term,
the
German
bond curve could steepen on ECB inaction * Softer US data supports our call that
the Fed will stay on hold this year * We are an EM bull on the Fed, flows and
China news but a Trump win is a risk to our view.
US:
Blackout ahead of Fed meeting * Asia: China’s lending cools down, no crisis *
Europe: Bank of England meeting
ECB
keeps policy unchanged despite low inflation outlook…it still sees positive
effects of QE though effectiveness is diminishing * Calls for governments to
act seem futile while ECB policy regime change looks unlikely * A technology
shock would save the day but short of that we are stuck in a low growth, low
inflation, low interest rate world, making the eurozone vulnerable to the next
economic shock
Speculative
Positioning
– Marc
Chandler
Speculators
Trim Long Foreign Currency Exposure in the Futures Market
Dollar
Proves Resilient as Market Rates Rise
Week
Ahead – Marc Chandler
The week ahead will
likely be shaped by a combination of what happened last week and what will happen
the week after next. The end of last
week saw a sell-off in equities and bonds and a recovery in the US dollar. The
week after next the FOMC and BOJ meet in apparently live meetings, meaning that
policies may be adjusted.
Soft
US data and an underwhelming ECB outing have engineered a sudden shift in
sentiment that could spill over into next week as the market reconsiders the
validity and power of the central bank put that has been driving carry trades
since February.