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Thursday, September 8

8th Sep - ECB completely motionless

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Jean-Claude Juncker wants to bend European budget rulesPolitico
In his annual speech, the Commission president is expected to call for more flexibility in budget deficit calculations.

Euro area outlook: Ongoing recovery while political risks are risingNordea
The recovery will continue in 2017-18, mostly driven by domestic demand. Inflation will rise only moderately, allowing monetary policymakers to stay on the accelerator for long. Although elections in major member countries might see EU- or euro-sceptic forces progress, we don’t expect a break-up of the Euro area. The approaching elections may shift fiscal policy to be more growth-supportive than we expect, but they also increase the risk of delayed or even reversed reforms.

Merkel’s sister party CSU to step up refugee fight: report – Politico
Wolfgang Schäuble goes soft on spending (not) – Politico

Merkel Lawmaker Sees Leeway on Migration in Brexit Bargain – BB
UK's small business confidence unharmed by Brexit vote: survey – Reuters

Europe's Ride on the Neoliberalism Express – BB

What Wall Street Expects From The ECB, And How Will The Market React – ZH
Monetary policy decisions Sep 8 – ECB
Introductory statement – ECB
ECB staff macroeconomic projections, September 2016 – ECB
Why Dropping ECB QE Constraint Could Actually Tighten Policy – WSJ
ECB's Draghi says looking at options to drive QE forward – Reuters
ECB disappoints, but will act soon – ABN AMRO
ECB review: See you in December – Nordea
Not many signs of action (yet) – Handelsbanken
ECB needs help from committees – again – Danske Bank
Draghi Orders ECB to Review QE Program Amid Bond Scarcity – BB
When will the ECB run out of bonds to buy? – FT

Can trivia help us to be less ignorant of our own ignorance?FT
 ‘A broad base of knowledge helps to clue us in to the times when we are stumbling towards a humbling’

Despite a plunge in overall US M&A, Tech deals soarWolf Street

How The Bank Of Japan May Be About To Unleash A Global SelloffZH

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Bund yield hits new lows as USD remains weak, passive ECB may surprise * Some might expect too much from the ECB today * Bund yields – bottom, and digging * The EUR may respond positively to neutral ECB

Morning MarketsTF
With just under two weeks to go to the crunch Federal reserve and Bank of Japan policy meetings the market's attention this session will be fixed on the European Central Bank's preemptive session today.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa
Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Draghi Says Little, Door Still Open for More

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
ECB day bullet points

Europe DailyWSJ
ECB Stands Pat; May Meets Tusk; Post-Brexit Tax Overhaul?

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
May says she will not reveal her hand prematurely as Corbyn suggests Britain should leave single market * Head of Bundestag’s Foreign Affairs Committee: Free movement should be negotiable in Brexit talks * UK banking industry keen on transitional arrangement while details of new trade agreement with EU are thrashed out * Carney defends pre-referendum comments over UK economy, accepts lower risk of recession * Mogherini: Brexit means no more excuses not to push ahead with closer defence cooperation * New poll: 88% of French opposed to Hollande running for second term in 2017 * Police see increase in hate crime following Brexit vote * Politico: Juncker plans to call for looser Eurozone fiscal rules in major speech next week

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Juncker’s bendy budgets — Deportation gymnastics — Socialist demands

With All Eyes On The ECB, Catatonic Global Markets Remain In State Of Near Paralysis

Frontrunning ZH

FX UpdateTF
The euro isn’t getting much attention ahead of the ECB where expectations are rather hazy on what Draghi can deliver that will impress the market. If the ECB under-delivers on easing today the fall-out could be widespread and have implications beyond the euro.

From the FloorTF
It's Mario Draghi's stage today and the globe will be tuned in for what the ECB president has to say (which may well be not very much).

EKP hengähdystauolla * Saksan ja Britannian teollisuustuotannot laskivat selvästi heinäkuussa * Kiinassa julkaistaan inflaatioluvut aamuyöstä