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Wednesday, September 7

7th Sep - EZ from monetary to fiscal stimulus?

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Europe's incompatible political trinitiesvox
The Eurozone Crisis has taken a significant toll – both economic and political – on EU member states as well as the Union as a whole. This column identifies three elements that are key to a working solution for continued union: overcoming the intergovernmental method that has dominated EU decision‑making since the crisis, avoiding the seemingly easy route of blaming all evils on ‘Brussels’, and a more unified external representation in global economic governance.

EU Fiscal Stimulus Is Just a Rule Change Away View / BB

A Nationalist Eastern Europe Could Reshape the EUView / BB
Poland and Hungary are forming one axis that has a very different view of what the union should be.

Draghi Set to Tell Tale of Stimulus Undercut by Brexit WoesBB

Angela Merkel urges German unity against AfDPolitico

Questions for Carney as U.K. Economy Defies Brexit-Vote Gloom – BB
Scarcity in Medium-Term Bonds Emerges as Hurdle for Carney’s QE – BB
U.K. House Prices Decline for Second Month as Sales Soften – BB
UK to build anti-refugee wall in Calais – Politico
UK needs the best of both points-based & work permit immigration systems – Open Europe

Financial forecasts: it’s all about the central banks - September 2016Nordea
The hunt for return continues to strongly characterise financial markets developments, supported by the Fed’s dovish stance as well as the easing launched by the ECB, the BoJ and most recently the BoE. Markets losing confidence in central banks would change the picture materially, but that is not our baseline. We continue to look for rather low bond yields throughout the forecast horizon, which now includes 2018. EUR/USD still has downside left but should start to rebound as early as mid-2017.

USDJPY Tumbles On Article: BOJ Struggling To Reach Policy ConsensusZH

El-Erian: The G-20 Gets It, but Is Unlikely to ActView / BB

Australia's economy toasts 25 years without recessionReuters

Danske DailyDanske Bank

ISM crashes causing yields and the USD to tumble * Central banks take centre stage * The 10-year Bund yield plunges, September hike probability falls 8pp to 24% * The USD tumbles, while the NOK gains even as oil is unchanged

Morning MarketsTF
World markets have tried in the wake of August's Jackson Hole summit to rally around hopes of a US interest rate hike but it is becoming increasingly clear that the numbers just aren't there.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Dollar Stabilizes, but Hardly Recovers

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Mr. Bond, they have a saying in Chicago

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Futures Flat Ahead Of Apple's Latest Product Launch


FX UpdateTF
Yesterday’s massive miss in the ISM non-manufacturing survey shocked the USD weaker but sustained directional moves in the major currencies may be hard to come by until the other side of the key FOMC and BoJ meetings later this month.

From the Floor TF
Gold and other safe-haven assets have rallied and the dollar remains soft as fears have swung from a US rate hike to recession. Risk-on sentiment in Asia however buoys equities.

Riksbank ei tänään muuta rahapolitiikkaansa * USA:n palvelusektorin luottamus (ISM) romahti odottamattomasti * Dollari heikkeni USA:n yritysten heikkojen ostopäällikköindeksien seurauksena * Tuore Economic Outlook on nyt luettavissa