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EUROPE
The Autumn of Referenda – euinside
The European Welfare State Has a Future Again – View
/ BB
As new and old EU
countries disunite, neoliberalism is in retreat
What are the prerequisites for
a euro-area fiscal capacity? – Bruegel
Three
progressive steps for strengthening the fiscal framework at the euro-area
level. These lead to less interference in national fiscal policymaking thanks
to a more credible no-bailout clause, increased risk sharing and different
degrees of provision of euro-area-wide public goods and fiscal stabilisation.
Europe’s Impending Fiscal Volte-Face – PIIE
US Treasury Secretary
Jack Lew recently declared victory for the US position in the debate over
stimulus versus austerity within the G-20. He was even more correct than he may
have imagined. Germany, which has led the pro-austerity camp in Europe, is
about to shift towards fiscal stimulus.
Public investment stimulus spillovers in the
Eurozone – vox
The spillover effects of
a fiscal stimulus in normal times are likely to be small, at best. This column
argues, however, that when interest rates are stuck at the zero lower bound and
monetary policy does not offset the expansion, public investment in surplus
countries could have significant positive GDP spillovers to the rest of the
Eurozone. Given current low borrowing costs, the increase in government debt
for surplus countries would be modest, while debt ratios in the rest of the
Eurozone could be improved.
German Europe or European Germany? – Project
Syndicate
With the migration
crisis weakening German Chancellor Angela Merkel politically just when her
authority in Europe is most needed, the new “German Question” can no longer be
avoided.
Goldman Sachs Just Launched Project Fear in
Italy – Wolf
Street
Things could get very
ugly, very fast, if those bank bonds collapse.
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
Don’t worry…the ECB has
tasked committees – ABN
AMRO
ECB staff projections
justify board decision to sit tight – TF
The ECB's asset purchase
programme: an early assessment – ECB
OTHER
This Bubble's Got Legs – BB
The whole world is moving together and signs of a massive bubble that
spans asset classes are becoming clearer. Yet, given the driver is cash printed
by central banks, indications it could pop are scant.
REGULARS
Danske Daily
– Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener
– Nordea
ECB on hold for now; stocks lower;
EUR and oil prices higher
Morning Markets
– TF
Pyongyang has once again thumbed its
nose at the international community and risked added sanctions; the reclusive
regime today carried out its most powerful nuclear test to date. The
underground explosion resembled an earthquake and it rattled investors in Seoul
driving the benchmark Kospi Composite sharply lower.
Euro wrap-up – Daiwa
Daily Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Ahead of the Weekend
Daily Market Comment
– Macro
Man
Summarizing Draghi in 5 pictures
Europe Daily
– WSJ
Ten-Year Bund Yields Turn Positive;
Brexit Doesn’t Deter Students
Daily Press Summary
– Open
Europe
Chancellor warns that hitting the
City of London in Brexit talks will hurt the EU as well as the UK * Fox
declares new International Trade department “open for business” * Theresa May
considering signing up to revamped Europol regulation * ECB holds policy but
hints at further easing to come * Austrian minister says EU’s Brexit strategy
shouldn’t be designed solely by Germany, France and Italy * Tsipras hosts
mini-summit of Mediterranean leaders * Italy’s biggest union urges members to
vote No in referendum on constitutional reform * Hollande drops strongest hint
yet that he wants to seek second term next year * Merkel reiterates support for
US-EU free trade deal * EU to provide refugees with debit cards in Turkey
Brussels Playbook
– Politico
Refugee debit cards — Anti-austerity
front — State of the Union preview
US Open – ZH
Global Stocks Slide As Bond Curves
Steepen On Central Bank Concerns; Oil Falls
Frontrunning
– ZH
FX Update
– TF
The ECB clearly thinks it is pushing
as hard as it can push on monetary policy and this has important implications
as the complacent assumption that the central bank put will be always and
everywhere ready to bail out markets has been the chief market driver since the
ugly start to the year.
From the Floor –
TF
Yesterday's ECB outing saw the
insitution decline to expand its current programmes. At this point and with the
BoJ and FOMC fast approaching one has to wonder whether this was a choice or a
signal that central banks have a hit a wall in terms of policy.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
EKP keventää
rahapolitiikkaa joulukuussa * USA:ssa työttömyyskorvaushakemusten määrä laski alimmilleen
seitsemään viikkoon * Kiinan inflaatio jäi odotuksista * Euroalueen
valtionlainakorot nousivat EKP-pettymyksen myötä
Toisin kuin Juha Sipilä väittää, EU:lla
ei ole toimivaa strategiaa – Suomen
Uutiset
VTT Heikki
Koskenkylä kirjoittaa Euroopan unionin suunnasta. Ongelmia riittää, ratkaisuja
ei.
Suomen Pankin uusille johtajille
tehtävä – Peter
Nyberg