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EUROPE
Budget-related cross-border flows: EU versus US – vox
At the margin, the US
federal budget is less redistributive in normal times, with around 90 cents per
dollar returning to the contributing state, but net cross-border fiscal flows
in the US increased steeply in the wake of the Global Crisis, financed by
federal borrowing.
Gideon Rachman: A two-tier model to revive
Europe – FT
Rather than viewing
Brexit as a threat, the EU should treat it as an opportunity
Donald Tusk pushes ‘road map’ for EU future – Politico
In Bratislava, EU needs
to ‘show unity and bring back political control’ in response to ‘fears related
to migration, terrorism, and globalization.’
Behind the New German Right – The
New York Review of Books
The AfD was founded in
2013 by a group of perfectly respectable, deeply uncharismatic economics
professors
Confessions of a presidential speechwriter – Politico
If Jean-Claude Juncker
goes off script in this week’s State of the Union, spare a thought for the poor
soul who put the speech together.
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
ECB: reality check, no
QE extension (yet) – Pictet
Mario Draghi: Working
together for an effective and inclusive Union – ECB
Draghi Says Joint EU
Action on Defense, Migration Is ‘Essential’ – BB
UNITED
KINGDOM
UK may avoid a
Brexit-recession as data have surprised positively – Danske
Bank
UK consumer inflation
holds steady despite Brexit pressure – Reuters
Tyler Cowen: Don't
Believe the Good Economic News About Brexit – View
/ BB
Barry Eichengreen: Brexit
and the Pound in Your Pocket – Project
Syndicate
UNITED STATES
Fed looks unlikely to hike next week after
Brainard warning – Reuters
Kocherlakota: The Fed Is Planning for Another
Slow Recovery – View
/ BB
It will accept too
little inflation and too much unemployment for too many years after the next
recession.
OTHER
Perspectives September
2016 – Pictet
Christine Lagarde: Making
Globalization Work for All – IMF
Globalisation ‘not to
blame’ for income woes, study says – FT
Surplus in Oil Market
Will Last Longer Than Previously Thought, Says IEA – BB
Global oil outlook
darkens more quickly; surplus stubborn – Reuters
High Frequency Traders
Elbow Their Way Into the Currency Markets – BB
REGULARS
Danske Daily –
Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener
– Nordea
Brainard breaks negative sentiment;
higher yields and weaker EUR * Swedish inflation is key to Riksbank’s October
decision
Morning Markets
– TF
The Fed's Lael Brainard undermined
the September rate hike narrative overnight and we now may enter a phoney war
period during the communications blackout to the FOMC meeting on September 21.
Euro wrap-up
– Daiwa
Daily Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Much Noise, Weak Signal
Daily Market Comment
– Macro
Man
Macro Man turns 10 years old
Daily Press Summary
– Open
Europe
David Davis: Government “will not be
saying a lot” about Brexit talks strategy before EU exit mechanism is triggered
* UK-EU exit talks “won’t be completed within two years”, Irish PM says * Luxembourg’s
Foreign Minister suggests Hungary should be expelled from EU for violating its
fundamental values * Bank CEOs differ on views of Brexit impact * EU leaders
set to discuss “possible unintended consequences” of free movement * Austrian
presidential re-run postponed to December due to defective postal voting
envelopes * New poll: Rajoy’s party would be the only one to make gains in a
third Spanish election
Brussels Playbook
– Politico
Georgieva countdown — TTIP-lite —
Bratislava fest
US Open – ZH
Dow Futures Slide Over 100 Points
Despite Fed's Dovish Relent; Oil Drops On IEA Pessimism
Frontrunning
– ZH
From the Floor
– TF
US stocks rose yesterday as they did
on Friday but the continued outperformance does not likely reflect a market
that is healthy at its fundamental core.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Ruotsin
inflaatio pysyttelee tukevasti tavoitetason alapuolella * Britannian elokuun
inflaatio julkaistaan tänään * USA:n pienyrittäjien luottamuksesta (NFIB)
lisätietoa ISM-pettymyksen jälkeen * Norjan keskuspankki julkaisee tänään
alueellisen talousraportin