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Tuesday, September 13

13th Sep - More or Less Europe?

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Budget-related cross-border flows: EU versus USvox
At the margin, the US federal budget is less redistributive in normal times, with around 90 cents per dollar returning to the contributing state, but net cross-border fiscal flows in the US increased steeply in the wake of the Global Crisis, financed by federal borrowing.

Gideon Rachman: A two-tier model to revive Europe FT
Rather than viewing Brexit as a threat, the EU should treat it as an opportunity

Donald Tusk pushes ‘road map’ for EU futurePolitico
In Bratislava, EU needs to ‘show unity and bring back political control’ in response to ‘fears related to migration, terrorism, and globalization.’

Behind the New German RightThe New York Review of Books
The AfD was founded in 2013 by a group of perfectly respectable, deeply uncharismatic economics professors

Confessions of a presidential speechwriterPolitico
If Jean-Claude Juncker goes off script in this week’s State of the Union, spare a thought for the poor soul who put the speech together.

ECB: reality check, no QE extension (yet) – Pictet
Mario Draghi: Working together for an effective and inclusive Union – ECB
Draghi Says Joint EU Action on Defense, Migration Is ‘Essential’ – BB

UK may avoid a Brexit-recession as data have surprised positively – Danske Bank
UK consumer inflation holds steady despite Brexit pressure – Reuters
Tyler Cowen: Don't Believe the Good Economic News About Brexit – View / BB
Barry Eichengreen: Brexit and the Pound in Your Pocket – Project Syndicate

Fed looks unlikely to hike next week after Brainard warningReuters

Kocherlakota: The Fed Is Planning for Another Slow RecoveryView / BB
It will accept too little inflation and too much unemployment for too many years after the next recession.

Perspectives September 2016Pictet

Christine Lagarde: Making Globalization Work for AllIMF

Globalisation ‘not to blame’ for income woes, study says FT

Surplus in Oil Market Will Last Longer Than Previously Thought, Says IEABB
Global oil outlook darkens more quickly; surplus stubbornReuters

High Frequency Traders Elbow Their Way Into the Currency MarketsBB

Danske Daily Danske Bank

Brainard breaks negative sentiment; higher yields and weaker EUR * Swedish inflation is key to Riksbank’s October decision

Morning MarketsTF
The Fed's Lael Brainard undermined the September rate hike narrative overnight and we now may enter a phoney war period during the communications blackout to the FOMC meeting on September 21.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Much Noise, Weak Signal

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Macro Man turns 10 years old

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
David Davis: Government “will not be saying a lot” about Brexit talks strategy before EU exit mechanism is triggered * UK-EU exit talks “won’t be completed within two years”, Irish PM says * Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister suggests Hungary should be expelled from EU for violating its fundamental values * Bank CEOs differ on views of Brexit impact * EU leaders set to discuss “possible unintended consequences” of free movement * Austrian presidential re-run postponed to December due to defective postal voting envelopes * New poll: Rajoy’s party would be the only one to make gains in a third Spanish election

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Georgieva countdown — TTIP-lite — Bratislava fest

Dow Futures Slide Over 100 Points Despite Fed's Dovish Relent; Oil Drops On IEA Pessimism


From the FloorTF
US stocks rose yesterday as they did on Friday but the continued outperformance does not likely reflect a market that is healthy at its fundamental core.

Ruotsin inflaatio pysyttelee tukevasti tavoitetason alapuolella * Britannian elokuun inflaatio julkaistaan tänään * USA:n pienyrittäjien luottamuksesta (NFIB) lisätietoa ISM-pettymyksen jälkeen * Norjan keskuspankki julkaisee tänään alueellisen talousraportin