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Thursday, September 1

1st Sep - UK's manufacturing surprise

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Merkel Faces Home-State Defeat Over Immigration BB
AfD running neck-and-neck with Merkel’s CDU ahead of election * Northeast state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania votes Sunday

Finland's Basic Income Experiment Is Too TimidView / BB

Theresa May’s Brexit choice – Simon Wren-Lewis
Where team May stands on Brexit – Politico
UK inflation is about to take off – but by how much? – Reuters
Sterling Surges After U.K. Manufacturing Survey Smashes Expectations – WSJ
UK manufacturers shrug off Brexit vote – Nordea

Patience With the ECB is Running OutWSJ

ECB preview: Taking its timeNordea
We do not expect the ECB to change its monetary policy stance on 8 September. While the continuously low inflation could merit further easing, the ECB is assumed to wait until December before taking some of its Council Members deeper into their discomfort zone. However, we may see technical changes to the asset purchase programme already now. Hints to further easing should favour lower yields and a weaker euro. We expect only small revisions to the staff projections.

Selected takeaways from the ECB’s Sintra Forumvox
The ECB’s 2016 Sintra Forum on Central Banking focused on the international monetary and financial system. In this column, the organisers of the forum highlight some of the main points from the discussions, including concerns that the world economy may be suffering from a shortage of safe assets and proposals for which areas international regulatory reforms should be further developed.

Euro area: Banking data supports moderate growth expectationsNordea

Soon time to tick the U.S. full employment box?Reuters

5 Things to Watch in the August Jobs ReportWSJ

ISM Manufacturing index decreased to 49.4 in August – Bill McBride

Global Macro: September is the perfect time for a Fed rate hike TF
A US rate rise in September makes sense for a number of reasons: it would allow it the option of hiking again in December, it would help the Eurozone and Japan to weaken their currencies further. it would strengthen the much-diluted Fed credibility

IMF Staff Note to G-20 on Global Prospects and Policy ChallengesIMF

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Lower oil prices; mixed Chinese PMIs; ISM today * US ISM to ease concerns * USD rally loses steam * US Treasury 10Y yield erases the Jackson Hole gains

Morning MarketsTF
Yesterday's ADP jobs data did not take the US off-piste in terms of a potential rate hike and today's manufacturing ISM and jobless claims prints represent the final data points ahead of tomorrow's NFP. With the USD rally still very much in force the calendar is the only thing with the ability to stop markets from forecasting a rate hike from the Fed.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
A Couple of Surprises to Start the New Month

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Thursday bullet points

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Theresa May suggests UK will not seek “off-the-shelf” model for new relationship with EU and stresses need for controls on EU immigration * Referendum debate criticised for leaving voters “ill-informed” * Deutsche Bank boss: London will remain top financial hub, but may look “very different” after Brexit * UK manufacturing rebounds strongly in August beating expectations * Davis: There will be no return to the past in Ireland * Irish government remains split on Apple ruling * Right-wing populist AfD overtakes Merkel’s CDU ahead of upcoming regional election * Rajoy fails in first bid to win second term as Spanish PM * Austria suggests stopping TTIP negotiations and starting afresh after US Presidential elections * Home Office tests online system to speed up permanent residence applications from EU nationals * Brexit vote hits Ryanair profits

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Merkel’s soft offensive — iFailure, Apple’s crash landing — TTIP mess

Global Stocks Rise, Metals Jump On Strong Chinese Data; Pound Surges On Record UK Mfg Spike


FX UpdateTF
The US dollar has reached pivotal areas as tomorrow’s US jobs report is likely to set the tone for the market until the September 21 FOMC meeting. Today’s UK Manufacturing PMI will tell us whether sterling’s rally attempt can turn into a full-on squeeze.

From the FloorTF
The dollar has consolidated Thursday ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls and now its down to the kingpin report to deliver a number that could be pivotal for so many things.

Kiinan PMI-luvut rauhoittavat markkinoita – ainakin toistaiseksi * Brasilian presidentti Rousseff äänestettiin ulos virasta * Euroalueen inflaatio polki elokuussa paikallaan * Tänään julkaistaan USA:n teollisuuden luottamus (ISM)

Euro tuskin enää pelastettavissa – keskitytään EU:hunHenri Myllyniemi

Brexit - ja brittien teollisuus nouseeJuhani Huopainen