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Tuesday, September 27

27th Sep - US debate, Italy, France, Deutsche Bank

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Europe MonthlyDaiwa

Marine Le Pen’s cash-flow crisisPolitico
The National Front doesn’t have enough money for a presidential campaign — and its funding options are far from ideal.

Sarkozy recordings reveal National Front flirtation Politico
Sarkozy frequently voiced sympathy for the values of France’s far-right National Front, according to excerpts from a new book.

Matteo Renzi’s not-so-secret weapon: Euro-bashing Politico
Matteo Renzi is running against the EU to save his own career — and even EU leaders who find his criticism exasperating concede that the bloc’s survival may hinge on his success.

Most Italians have no idea what they're voting onBI
Italians faces one of the most important votes in Italy's history but a new report by HSBC shows that most people have no idea what they are voting on.

HSBC Sees No Good Outcome for Italy’s Bonds From Renzi VoteBB
Nation is due to vote on constitutional reforms on Dec. 4 * Bank says bonds would underperform Spain’s on ‘No’ result

Renzi and the Italian Referendum: Disruption Potential MinimizedMarc Chandler

Mario Draghi urges EU to take tough line with UK in Brexit talksFT
Britain should have no access to single market unless it accepts freedom of movement, says ECB chief

U.K. Needs Brexit Flexibility for EU Market Access, Romania Says BB
Deputy foreign minister worried for Romanian citizens in U.K. * Britain urged to decide what relations it wants with EU

Deutsche Bank Returns to Haunt Merkel in an Election YearBB
German government moves swiftly to douse bailout talk * Debate highlights chancellor’s tangled history with bank

Tim Worstall: Too Big To Fail Means It Will Not FailForbes

Mutti's problem childReuters
Angela Merkel would have to be either brave or foolish to let Germany’s biggest bank by assets fail

Deutsche Bank Stock Crashes Near Single-Digits As CDS Spike To Record Highs ZH

EU may refuse to sign up to new banking rules – sourcesReuters
European regulatory and banking sources say "Basel IV" unfairly penalise Europe's banks.

Bank resolution in the Banking UnionJussi Lindgren

Deutsche Bank Curve Inverts, Bundesbank Dismisses State SupportZH

Clinton, Trump Draw Stark Contrasts With Sharp Debate Attacks – BB
Market participants react to debate – Reuters
Clinton gains in online betting markets after U.S. presidential debate – Reuters
Mexican Peso Jumps, Gold Retreats as Clinton Seen Winning Debate – BB
Debate Cheat Sheet: Trump and Clinton on the Economy – WSJ
Clinton gets under Trump’s skin – Politico
Clinton hits where it hurts, Trump’s reaction hands her a win – Politico
Trump Takes the Bait and Hooks Himself – View / BB
Trump Scored One Point in the Debate as Clinton Stumbled on Iran – View / BB
Trump's Strengths Didn't Help Him This Time – View / BB
One Candidate Rose to the Occasion. Guess Which. – View / BB
Mexican Peso Declares Clinton Debate Winner – WSJ
Paul Krugman: Trump On Trade – loud, confident nonsense – NYT

Hans-Werner Sinn: Secular Stagnation or Self-Inflicted Malaise? Project Syndicate
The only way out of the trap is a hefty dose of creative destruction, which in Europe would have to be accompanied by debt relief and exits from the eurozone, with subsequent currency devaluations.

Japan's PM Abe: BOJ's new policy framework to strengthen monetary policyReuters

Goldman Cuts Oil Price Target From $50 To $43 On Rising Global SurplusZH

Iran Doesn’t Want Oil Deal in Algiers, Won’t Freeze Output BB

WTO Says Global Trade in Its Worst Year Since Financial CrisisBB
Trade Protectionism Risks Deeper Global-Growth Funk, IMF WarnsWSJ
Global Trade To Grow At Slowest Pace Since Financial CrisisZH

World Economic Outlook Analytical ChaptersIMF
Global Trade: What's behind the Slowdown? * Global Disinflation in an Era of Constrained Monetary Policy * Spillovers from China’s Transition and from Migration

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Markets see Clinton as winner – MXN jumps. German Ifo index at its strongest level since 2014. Bund keeps grinding lower. Election uncertainty weakening the USD.

Morning MarketsTF
If markets are the barometer then Hillary Clinton was the one landing the telling blows in the presidential debate as she ducked and weaved her way to a marginal victory over rival Donald Trump. Yet while the relief rally spurred Mexico's peso there is a long way still to go before November 8.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
US Debate Lifts Peso, but Leaves the Dollar Non-Plussed

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
So much for the holding pattern

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Sarkozy says his first act as French President would be to “re-found the EU from top to bottom” including a new treaty * Labour criticise Government for not laying out negotiating position but say the party is still “considering” its own * ECB President warns over giving UK special deal *
Axel Springer chief says Britain will be better off than continental Europe in three to five years *
Referendum on Italian constitutional reform to be held on 4 December * Mortgage approvals at lowest level for 18 months but Moody’s see commercial property market as robust * Slovakian PM says EU refugee quotas are “politically finished” * Commission Vice President says Syriza populism led to the need for more austerity * German business confidence hits two year high * Merkel calls for migration deal with Egypt and other African and Middle East nations

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Juncker and Schulz together again — Guterres leads at UN — Clinton trumps Trump

"Hillary Rally" Fizzles As DB Hits New Record Low; Volkswagen Slammed; Oil Slides On Iran Statement

Frontrunning ZH

FX UpdateTF
The action across markets took on a risk-on/risk-off tone in anticipation of the US presidential debates where nervousness ahead of the debates quickly yielded to a relief rally as Clinton was the perceived winner. The currency winner was the Mexican peso

From the FloorTF
Last night's US election saw Democratic candidate and investor-reassuring avatar of continuity Hillary Clinton put in a solid performance that is boosting stocks and sentiment across world markets.

USA:n vaaliväittelyssä jatkettiin totutulla linjalla * Saksan luottamusta mittaava Ifo-indeksi yllätti positiivisesti * Meksikon peson kurssi on heikentynyt Trumpin kannatuksen nousun tahdissa

Simon Elo: Suomen neuvostovastainen hallitus Verkkouutiset

Kumpi väistyy: Deutsche vai Merkel?Elina Lepomäki