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Tuesday, September 27

27th Sep - US debate, Italy, France, Deutsche Bank






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EUROPE
Europe Monthly – Daiwa

  FRANCE
Marine Le Pen’s cash-flow crisis – Politico
The National Front doesn’t have enough money for a presidential campaign — and its funding options are far from ideal.

Sarkozy recordings reveal National Front flirtation – Politico
Sarkozy frequently voiced sympathy for the values of France’s far-right National Front, according to excerpts from a new book.

  ITALY
Matteo Renzi’s not-so-secret weapon: Euro-bashing – Politico
Matteo Renzi is running against the EU to save his own career — and even EU leaders who find his criticism exasperating concede that the bloc’s survival may hinge on his success.

Most Italians have no idea what they're voting on – BI
Italians faces one of the most important votes in Italy's history but a new report by HSBC shows that most people have no idea what they are voting on.

HSBC Sees No Good Outcome for Italy’s Bonds From Renzi Vote – BB
Nation is due to vote on constitutional reforms on Dec. 4 * Bank says bonds would underperform Spain’s on ‘No’ result

Renzi and the Italian Referendum: Disruption Potential Minimized – Marc Chandler

  UNITED KINGDOM
Mario Draghi urges EU to take tough line with UK in Brexit talks – FT
Britain should have no access to single market unless it accepts freedom of movement, says ECB chief

U.K. Needs Brexit Flexibility for EU Market Access, Romania Says – BB
Deputy foreign minister worried for Romanian citizens in U.K. * Britain urged to decide what relations it wants with EU

  BANKS
Deutsche Bank Returns to Haunt Merkel in an Election Year – BB
German government moves swiftly to douse bailout talk * Debate highlights chancellor’s tangled history with bank

Tim Worstall: Too Big To Fail Means It Will Not Fail – Forbes

Mutti's problem child – Reuters
Angela Merkel would have to be either brave or foolish to let Germany’s biggest bank by assets fail

Deutsche Bank Stock Crashes Near Single-Digits As CDS Spike To Record Highs – ZH

EU may refuse to sign up to new banking rules – sources – Reuters
European regulatory and banking sources say "Basel IV" unfairly penalise Europe's banks.

Bank resolution in the Banking Union – Jussi Lindgren

Deutsche Bank Curve Inverts, Bundesbank Dismisses State Support – ZH


UNITED STATES
  PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
Clinton, Trump Draw Stark Contrasts With Sharp Debate Attacks – BB
Market participants react to debate – Reuters
Clinton gains in online betting markets after U.S. presidential debate – Reuters
Mexican Peso Jumps, Gold Retreats as Clinton Seen Winning Debate – BB
Debate Cheat Sheet: Trump and Clinton on the Economy – WSJ
Clinton gets under Trump’s skin – Politico
Clinton hits where it hurts, Trump’s reaction hands her a win – Politico
Trump Takes the Bait and Hooks Himself – View / BB
Trump Scored One Point in the Debate as Clinton Stumbled on Iran – View / BB
Trump's Strengths Didn't Help Him This Time – View / BB
One Candidate Rose to the Occasion. Guess Which. – View / BB
Mexican Peso Declares Clinton Debate Winner – WSJ
Paul Krugman: Trump On Trade – loud, confident nonsense – NYT


OTHER
Hans-Werner Sinn: Secular Stagnation or Self-Inflicted Malaise? – Project Syndicate
The only way out of the trap is a hefty dose of creative destruction, which in Europe would have to be accompanied by debt relief and exits from the eurozone, with subsequent currency devaluations.

Japan's PM Abe: BOJ's new policy framework to strengthen monetary policy – Reuters

Goldman Cuts Oil Price Target From $50 To $43 On Rising Global Surplus – ZH

Iran Doesn’t Want Oil Deal in Algiers, Won’t Freeze Output – BB

WTO Says Global Trade in Its Worst Year Since Financial Crisis – BB
Trade Protectionism Risks Deeper Global-Growth Funk, IMF Warns – WSJ
Global Trade To Grow At Slowest Pace Since Financial Crisis – ZH

World Economic Outlook Analytical Chapters – IMF
Global Trade: What's behind the Slowdown? * Global Disinflation in an Era of Constrained Monetary Policy * Spillovers from China’s Transition and from Migration


REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Eye-Opener – Nordea
Markets see Clinton as winner – MXN jumps. German Ifo index at its strongest level since 2014. Bund keeps grinding lower. Election uncertainty weakening the USD.

Morning Markets – TF
If markets are the barometer then Hillary Clinton was the one landing the telling blows in the presidential debate as she ducked and weaved her way to a marginal victory over rival Donald Trump. Yet while the relief rally spurred Mexico's peso there is a long way still to go before November 8.

Euro wrap-up – Daiwa

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler
US Debate Lifts Peso, but Leaves the Dollar Non-Plussed

Daily Market Comment – Macro Man
So much for the holding pattern

Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
Sarkozy says his first act as French President would be to “re-found the EU from top to bottom” including a new treaty * Labour criticise Government for not laying out negotiating position but say the party is still “considering” its own * ECB President warns over giving UK special deal *
Axel Springer chief says Britain will be better off than continental Europe in three to five years *
Referendum on Italian constitutional reform to be held on 4 December * Mortgage approvals at lowest level for 18 months but Moody’s see commercial property market as robust * Slovakian PM says EU refugee quotas are “politically finished” * Commission Vice President says Syriza populism led to the need for more austerity * German business confidence hits two year high * Merkel calls for migration deal with Egypt and other African and Middle East nations

Brussels Playbook – Politico
Juncker and Schulz together again — Guterres leads at UN — Clinton trumps Trump

US Open – ZH
"Hillary Rally" Fizzles As DB Hits New Record Low; Volkswagen Slammed; Oil Slides On Iran Statement

Frontrunning – ZH

FX Update – TF
The action across markets took on a risk-on/risk-off tone in anticipation of the US presidential debates where nervousness ahead of the debates quickly yielded to a relief rally as Clinton was the perceived winner. The currency winner was the Mexican peso

From the Floor – TF
Last night's US election saw Democratic candidate and investor-reassuring avatar of continuity Hillary Clinton put in a solid performance that is boosting stocks and sentiment across world markets.


FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
USA:n vaaliväittelyssä jatkettiin totutulla linjalla * Saksan luottamusta mittaava Ifo-indeksi yllätti positiivisesti * Meksikon peson kurssi on heikentynyt Trumpin kannatuksen nousun tahdissa

Simon Elo: Suomen neuvostovastainen hallitus – Verkkouutiset

Kumpi väistyy: Deutsche vai Merkel? – Elina Lepomäki