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Wednesday, September 14

14th Sep - No shocks from EU's state of the union

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Commission's Politicalness Is Already Causing Anxiety in the ECBeuinside

Italy: Rexit? Why the upcoming referendum mattersNordea
In a worst-case scenario (though in our view not most likely) Prime Minister Renzi loses, steps down, first uncertainty takes over and then a euro-sceptic government. The road towards rating downgrades and loss of eligibility for the ECB’s asset purchases might not be that long for Europe’s largest debtor.

ECB’s Knot Sees Boost From QE Running to 2020 With Reinvestment BB
Dutch policy maker makes remarks at conference in Vienna * Bond-buying currently scheduled to run to at least March 2017

Junckers: The State of the UnionEC
Towards a Better Europe – A Europe that Protects, Empowers and Defends

Juncker: Brexit must not ‘dominate’ EU agenda – Politico
Brexit not the end of European Union, Juncker says – Reuters
State of Juncker’s Union: What he has (and hasn’t) delivered – Politico
Juncker proposes EU military headquarters – BBC
Juncker uses State of the Union to try to heal EU divisions – FT
Jean-Claude Juncker: The EU is in ‘crisis’ – Politico
Jean-Claude Juncker’s (not quite) JFK moment – Politico

10 reasons why we believe the Fed will not hike this yearDanske Bank

Fed Tea Leaves, Brainard Edition: Is It About Rates, or Ammo? WSJ

Dangerous Donald vs Crooked HillaryNordea
Clinton’s lead in the polls is shrinking and considering the possible election of a protectionist president and that polls got Brexit wrong, markets seem too complacent in our view. A pick-up in market volatility around the election still seems like a good bet.

Japan: Has the BoJ reached its limits? ABN AMRO
We do not think that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has reached its limits, but there is limited room left for aggressive easing

Monthly Commodity UpdateABN AMRO
Commodities in anticipation of Fed rate hikes

Satyajit Das: The Closing of the World Economy View / BB
Governments have been leading the attack on globalization.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Brainard breaks negative sentiment * Higher yields and weaker EUR * Swedish inflation today - key to Riksbank’s October decision

Morning Markets TF
European equity markets are set to open in negative territory Wednesday after the oil-inspired wave or risk aversion that erupted in Wall Street yesterday washed into Asian overnight sending most local indices into lower ground.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa
Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Precarious Stabilization

Daily Market Comment Macro Man
Another rout

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Juncker: There can be no single market à la carte * Tusk: EU should aim to keep “best possible relations” with UK after Brexit * German Foreign Minister doubts EU-US trade deal will be concluded before Obama leaves office * Hungary and Luxembourg trade barbs over refugee crisis * Draghi urges to pay more attention to “redistributive aspects” of European integration * Italy set to downgrade GDP growth forecasts for second time this year * Greece to get next tranche of bailout cash by mid-October, Economy Minister says

Brussels Playbook Politico
State of the Union day — Tusk’s ten commandments — New ECA president

Global Market Rout Abates As Bond Selloff Pauses, Oil Rebounds


FX UpdateTF
USDJPY tested key technical resistance overnight but the rally was turned back in European trading on the uncertainty surrounding next week’s FOMC and BoJ meetings. Market temperature remains high after bonds and equities weakened again in unison yesterday.

From the Floor TF
Last week's oil rally seems a dim and distant memory as the IEA predicts the supply glut to last deep into 2017.

EKP lataa akkujaan * USA:n pienyrittäjien luottamus pysyi kohtuullisen hyvänä * Tänään julkaistava euroalueen teollisuustuotanto laskee Saksan myötä

Maahanmuuttajaryhmien työurissa suuria erojaEläketurvakeskus
Maahanmuuttajien asema työmarkkinoilla on parantunut merkittävästi 1990-luvulta. Erot ryhmien välillä ovat kuitenkin suuria. Vähiten työllistä aikaa on kertynyt Lähi-idästä tai Somaliasta muuttaneille naisille. Suurin työllisen ajan osuus on Virosta saapuneilla nuorilla miehillä, käy ilmi ainutlaatuisesta rekisteritutkimuksesta.