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Monday, September 26

26th Sep - Deutsche, Italy's referendum, migrants, Brexit

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Nordic Outlook September 2016Danske Bank

The IMF and Euro Area CrisesPIIE
Review of a Report from the Independent Evaluation Office

What does a hard Brexit or a soft Brexit actually mean?Open Europe
‘Hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit are rarely defined and can mean different things to different people. Raoul Ruparel attempts to define them and argues that unless some definitions can be agreed, the terms should be dropped.

Stephen Booth: Are we heading for a “hard Brexit” by accident?Open Europe
The biggest challenge in delivering an “ambitious” new relationship with the EU, will be navigating the increasing political volatility within and between the other 27 EU member states.

The economic effects of globalization Bank Underground
We explore three structural changes to the economy arising from globalisation that we have observed daily in our visits to companies around the UK. These are increases in: (a) openness of product markets; (b) access for UK businesses to overseas labour; and (c) outsourcing of non-core activities to lower-wage economies

Italy’s constitutional referendum: Mapping the possible political scenarios – Europp
Italy to hold constitutional referendum on December 4 – Politico
5 things that will decide Italy’s constitutional vote – Politico
Regulators expect Monte dei Paschi to ask Italy for help – sources – Reuters

Merkel Rules out Assistance for Deutsche Bank, Focus Reports – BB
Deutsche denies seeking Berlin’s help over DoJ – FT
Germany Will Rescue Deutsche Bank If Necessary, Allianz Says – BB
Merkel Says Germans Fulfill Refugee Duty, Now Time for EU to Act – BB
Merkel: We need migrant deals with African states – Reuters

ECB policy seen effective, so only minor tweaks coming Reuters
Schaeuble urged lawmakers to grill ECB's Draghi: Bild newspaper – Reuters
Schaeuble Urges Lawmakers to Go Tough on Draghi, Bild Reports – BB
Cracks showing in Germany's fragile truce with the ECB – Reuters
Benoît Cœuré: Having confidence in Europe – ECB
ECB board member admits low rates risk "Tearing Up Social Fabric" – ZH
Draghi Suggests Europe Should Entirely Change Economic Course Forbes

Fed’s Rosengren Highlights Growing Tensions Inside FOMCBB
Boston Fed chief among three dissenters at this week’s meeting * Dove-turned-hawk says failing to hike could stoke imbalances

Fed's internal split tied to dueling views on jobs outlookReuters
The split at the Federal Reserve over when to next raise interest rates appears to hinge largely on disagreements over the labor market outlook, comments from policymakers on Friday suggest.

December Looking Good. But... Tim Duy
Doves on the Board continue to delay the preemptive strike on inflation. Stalling gains on unemployment and underemployment gave them the ammunition to stand their ground. If those gains resume, doves will fall prey to the hawks at the next meeting. But they will have an easier time maintaining a shallow path of policy next year, and hopefully are better set to communicate that path.

BofA’s Eight Election Trades For November 8thZH
Goldman Sachs' 10 Most Important Questions On The Election – ZH
Citi: "Increasingly Bizarre" Race, MS’s Trump "Contingency Plans" – ZH
Clinton and Trump in close race ahead of first debate – Nordea
Clinton, Trump poised for historic debate battle – CNN
The Art of the Debate: Stick With Policy – Politico

China outlook - recovery set to lose steam in 2017Danske Bank

Analysts Are Really Skeptical About This OPEC MeetingWSJ

Noah Smith: Economics Has a Major Blind SpotView / BB
Economists who don't understand politics can't give good advice

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Ifo and Draghi both expected close to unchanged; Broadly unchanged yields, yet downward pressure on yields persist; NOK advances again.

Morning MarketsTF
European equities are heading for a softer opening taking their cues from a weaker Asian session and a soggy close on Wall Street on Friday. Elsewhere in the US Clinton and Trump go head-to-head.

Euro wrap-up Daiwa
Despite a much stronger German business sentiment survey, Bunds made gains as concerns about Deutsche Bank weighed on risk appetite. Gilts also made gains while data suggested that new UK mortgage lending remained relatively subdued.

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Mixed while Stocks Slide to Begin Last Week of Q3

Daily Market Comment Macro Man

Daily Press Summary Open Europe
City of London concerned UK leaning towards leaving customs union and single market * Hopes of concluding EU-US trade diminish as EU tries to finalise CETA * France and Germany reject view that single market is not linked to free movement * Schulz: Brexit deal with free trade but no free movement will be vetoed * Spanish regional elections deal a blow to socialist hopes of unity * Next summit on post-Brexit reforms between EU-27 leaders to be held in February 2017

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Transparency trauma — Renzi lock-out — US debate night

Global Stocks Tumble, US Futures Slide On Deutsche Bank Fears, Central Bank And Commodity Concerns


FX UpdateTF
Sterling's slide continues as UK executives express a lack of desire to remain in the UK after Brexit vote. Elsewhere the USD has gone too quiet after last week’s FOMC meeting – the lack of directional conviction suggests a rising risk of USD reversing course.

From the FloorTF
A Moody's downgrade of Turkish debt sent the lira sharply lower overnight and with the Philippines peso also in dire straits there could be some emerging-markets spillover. There's also that big oil meeting in Algiers to keep a watchful eye on as well as the small matter of the opening presidential debate.

Markkinat odottavat USA:n presidentinvaalien ensimmäistä tv-vaaliväittelyä
Saksan talouselämän luottamusta mittaava Ifo-indeksi julkaistaan tänään | OPEC kokoontuu keskiviikkona keskustelemaan tuotannon jäädyttämisestä | Kiinasta julkaistaan perjantaina teollisuuden PMI-ostopäällikköindeksit syyskuulta

Jan Hurri: Japani vie rahaelvytyksen pidemmälle – EKP ei pysty samaanTalSa
Japanin keskuspankki lisää rahaelvytystään taas uusilla keinoilla, mutta jättää järeimmät raharuiskeet vielä reserviin. EKP:ltä nämä keinot ovat kiellettyjä.

Lama jatkuu, vaikka kultakauden piti alkaaMatti Wiren

"Suomalaisten olisi aika luopua lapsenomaisesta uskostaan euroalueen ongelmien korjaamisessa"Verkkouutiset
Mitkään tekotiukat säännöt eivät Työeläkeyhtiö Varman toimitusjohtajan mukaan tule korvaamaan euroalueen aitoa yhteistä finanssi- ja budjettipolitiikkaa pitkällä aikavälillä.