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EUROPE
Nordic Outlook September
2016 – Danske
Bank
Review of a Report from the Independent Evaluation Office
UNITED KINGDOM
What does a hard Brexit
or a soft Brexit actually mean? – Open
Europe
‘Hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit are rarely defined and can mean different things
to different people. Raoul Ruparel attempts to define them and argues that
unless some definitions can be agreed, the terms should be dropped.
The biggest challenge in delivering an “ambitious” new relationship with
the EU, will be navigating the increasing political volatility within and
between the other 27 EU member states.
The economic effects of globalization
– Bank
Underground
We explore three structural changes to the economy arising from
globalisation that we have observed daily in our visits to companies around the
UK. These are increases in: (a) openness of product markets; (b) access for UK
businesses to overseas labour; and (c) outsourcing of non-core activities to
lower-wage economies
ITALY
Italy’s constitutional referendum: Mapping the possible political
scenarios – Europp
Italy to hold constitutional referendum on December 4 – Politico
5 things that will decide Italy’s
constitutional vote – Politico
Regulators expect Monte dei Paschi to ask Italy for help – sources – Reuters
GERMANY
Merkel Rules out Assistance for Deutsche Bank, Focus Reports – BB
Deutsche denies seeking Berlin’s help over DoJ – FT
Germany Will Rescue Deutsche Bank If Necessary, Allianz Says – BB
Merkel Says Germans Fulfill Refugee Duty, Now Time for EU to Act – BB
Merkel: We need migrant deals with African states – Reuters
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Schaeuble urged lawmakers to grill ECB's Draghi: Bild newspaper – Reuters
Schaeuble Urges Lawmakers to Go Tough on Draghi, Bild Reports – BB
Cracks showing in Germany's fragile truce with the ECB – Reuters
Benoît Cœuré: Having confidence in Europe – ECB
ECB board member admits low rates risk "Tearing Up Social
Fabric" – ZH
Draghi Suggests Europe Should Entirely Change Economic Course – Forbes
UNITED STATES
Boston Fed chief among three dissenters at this week’s meeting * Dove-turned-hawk
says failing to hike could stoke imbalances
The split at the Federal Reserve over when to next raise interest rates
appears to hinge largely on disagreements over the labor market outlook,
comments from policymakers on Friday suggest.
December Looking Good.
But... – Tim
Duy
Doves on the Board continue to delay the preemptive strike on inflation.
Stalling gains on unemployment and underemployment gave them the ammunition to
stand their ground. If those gains resume, doves will fall prey to the hawks at
the next meeting. But they will have an easier time maintaining a shallow path
of policy next year, and hopefully are better set to communicate that path.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
BofA’s Eight Election Trades For November 8th – ZH
Goldman Sachs' 10 Most Important Questions On The Election – ZH
Citi: "Increasingly Bizarre" Race, MS’s Trump
"Contingency Plans" – ZH
Clinton and Trump in close race ahead of first debate – Nordea
Clinton, Trump poised for historic debate battle – CNN
The Art of the Debate: Stick With Policy – Politico
OTHER
China outlook - recovery
set to lose steam in 2017 – Danske
Bank
Analysts Are Really
Skeptical About This OPEC Meeting – WSJ
Noah Smith: Economics
Has a Major Blind Spot – View
/ BB
Economists who don't understand politics can't give good advice
REGULARS
Danske Daily
– Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener
– Nordea
Ifo and Draghi both expected close
to unchanged; Broadly unchanged yields, yet downward pressure on yields
persist; NOK advances again.
Morning Markets
– TF
European equities are heading for a
softer opening taking their cues from a weaker Asian session and a soggy close
on Wall Street on Friday. Elsewhere in the US Clinton and Trump go
head-to-head.
Euro wrap-up –
Daiwa
Despite a much stronger German
business sentiment survey, Bunds made gains as concerns about Deutsche Bank
weighed on risk appetite. Gilts also made gains while data suggested that new
UK mortgage lending remained relatively subdued.
Daily Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Dollar Mixed while Stocks Slide to
Begin Last Week of Q3
Daily Market Comment –
Macro Man
Daily Press Summary –
Open
Europe
City of London concerned UK leaning
towards leaving customs union and single market * Hopes of concluding EU-US
trade diminish as EU tries to finalise CETA * France and Germany reject view
that single market is not linked to free movement * Schulz: Brexit deal with
free trade but no free movement will be vetoed * Spanish regional elections
deal a blow to socialist hopes of unity * Next summit on post-Brexit reforms
between EU-27 leaders to be held in February 2017
Brussels Playbook
– Politico
Transparency trauma — Renzi lock-out
— US debate night
US Open – ZH
Global Stocks Tumble, US Futures
Slide On Deutsche Bank Fears, Central Bank And Commodity Concerns
Frontrunning
– ZH
FX Update
– TF
Sterling's slide continues as UK executives
express a lack of desire to remain in the UK after Brexit vote. Elsewhere the
USD has gone too quiet after last week’s FOMC meeting – the lack of directional
conviction suggests a rising risk of USD reversing course.
From the Floor
– TF
A Moody's downgrade of Turkish debt
sent the lira sharply lower overnight and with the Philippines peso also in dire
straits there could be some emerging-markets spillover. There's also that big
oil meeting in Algiers to keep a watchful eye on as well as the small matter of
the opening presidential debate.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Markkinat
odottavat USA:n presidentinvaalien ensimmäistä tv-vaaliväittelyä
Saksan
talouselämän luottamusta mittaava Ifo-indeksi julkaistaan tänään | OPEC
kokoontuu keskiviikkona keskustelemaan tuotannon jäädyttämisestä | Kiinasta julkaistaan
perjantaina teollisuuden PMI-ostopäällikköindeksit syyskuulta
Japanin
keskuspankki lisää rahaelvytystään taas uusilla keinoilla, mutta jättää
järeimmät raharuiskeet vielä reserviin. EKP:ltä nämä keinot ovat kiellettyjä.
"Suomalaisten olisi aika luopua
lapsenomaisesta uskostaan euroalueen ongelmien korjaamisessa" – Verkkouutiset
Mitkään
tekotiukat säännöt eivät Työeläkeyhtiö Varman toimitusjohtajan mukaan tule
korvaamaan euroalueen aitoa yhteistä finanssi- ja budjettipolitiikkaa pitkällä
aikavälillä.