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Friday, April 13

13th Apr - Spanish CDS vs. bond

All quiet on the Western front. Notice how the unmanipulated Spanish government bond CDS price is near all-time-highs. MoreLiver is on Twitter, Facebook, email, paper.li.


News And Market Re-Cap – RanSquawk / ZH
Frontrunning: April 13 – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
EM New York headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Morning MarketBeat: China Growth Slows – MarketBeat / WSJ
Morning Take-Out – DealBook / NYT
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe

EURO CRISIS
Disquiet at the ECBMacroScope
10-y government bond yield
A day for central bankers and maybe the hint of a row brewing within the ECB.
5-y government bond CDS price

What happened when Poland’s Fixed Exchange Rate Experiment Failed: Lessons for a Euro DivorceEconoMonitor
Ed Dolan: first lesson is that fixed exchange rates aren’t for everyone… second lesson is that there is more than one way to leave a fixed exchange rate… third lesson is that if a country chooses any kind of managed exchange rate regime, even as a transitional measure, credibility matters.

EURO CRISIS: SPAIN
Spain Banks Boost Borrowing From ECB by 50 Percent in MarchBB
Spanish banks’ borrowings from the ECB jumped by almost 50 percent in March, reaching the most on record, as lenders tap emergency loans and channel some of it into sovereign debt purchases.

Spain Emerges as Leading Candidate for Next Eurozone “Domino”AlphaNow / Reuters
Very nice collection of 14 charts

3 Notable Developments in SpainPragmatic Capitalism
Marc Chandler: EU economic team visiting Spain, parliament agreeing to give the central government ability to intervene in regions, social networks curbed.

Spain's escalating internal tensions over the austerity measuresSober Look
In particular the regions are uneasy about the new law that allows the central government to intervene if the regions "misbehave" fiscally.

What Is Next for Spain?PIIE
When a minister of finance and economics states that his country “does not need a rescue at this time” and the central bank governor cautions that banks will need more capital “if the economy worsens more than expected,” private bondholders are likely to take notice

CHINA
China in GDP shockalphaville / FT
China growth: bottoming out?beyondbrics / FT
GDP Misses Expectations, Rises Only 8.1%, Slowest Pace Since Sep 2009ZH
GDP growth eases but Q1 should prove to be the bottomDanske Bank (pdf)

OTHER
Equity Focus: ​Newtonian ProfitsPIMCO
Stock prices today are anchored on strong profits, hence investors’ intense focus on the sustainability of those profits. If they fall, stock prices are likely to follow.

[CVA] Pass the margin on the left hand sidealphaville / FT
(variation margin) has the effect of increasing the size of margin flows, as derivatives portfolios become bifurcated into cleared and uncleared buckets, impacting liquidity and increasing counterparty risk.

OFF-TOPIC
Exponential Economist Meets Finite PhysicistDo the Math