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EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
Economic Data, Political Meetings, Sovereign Debt Auctions & Elections – Place du Luxembourg
Nice collection of schedules for the coming weeks
A difficult equation – bruegel
In 2005, France and the Netherlands were the two countries that voted no to a European constitutional treaty. It seems they are set to disrupt again the European conversation.
Why The Euro Is So Strong, Or Why The Market Expects $700bn Of Fed QE3 – ZH
It seems to me that the market bias to buying EUR in periods of risk appetite can easily disappear if it looks as if European policymakers have lost control over the euro crisis. I would stress that recent experience suggests that investors do not care much how the euro zone deals with the tail risk as long as they find a mechanism for doing so. If not the euro and the euro zone could easily fall.
TARGET2: Not why Germans should fear a euro breakup – voxeu.org
Karl Whelan: In recent years, instability in many European countries has led to large transfers of money into Germany. This in turn has led the Bundesbank to build up large credits with other central banks in Europe – via the TARGET2 system. Does this represent a risk to Germany in the event of a breakup of the euro? This column argues that Germany will have far bigger things to worry about.
Collapse of the EU a “Realistic Scenario” – Testosterone Pit
a working group will determine over the next two weeks—lightning speed by EU standards where progress is measured in months and often years—how, not if, banks could receive bailout funds directly from the ESM. Cause for the rush: Spain.
Thirteen Years Later – Mark Grant / ZH
Any notion of what is going on in Europe will not affect America is just as silly as Germany supposing that they will be immune from the effects of the recession in Europe. That is not the way the world works and that will be proven again shortly. May 6 may mark the date when the sleeper finally awakens as Greece and France may both vote in such a manner as to significantly change the political landscape on the Continent.
FiveBooks Interviews: Barry Eichengreen on the Euro – The Browser
With hindsight, was the euro a good idea? Will it come through the present crisis intact or will any country decide to leave? And what happens if they do? All this and more answered by the economics professor
Presenting The Source Of The "US-Europe Decoupling" Confusion – ZH
Europe - You Are Here – ZH
Few good charts by Morgan Stanley on ECB’s “QE”.
Speech Vítor Constâncio: Shadow banking – The ECB perspective – ECB
…the establishment of a set of timely data concerning the repo market would be of key importance for supervisors, central banks and market participants.
European Crisis: Historical Parallels and Economic Lessons – Princeton
Big names in this Inaugural Conference (I listed this previously, but it is so good...)
The euro zone’s rescue fund: Funny money, fuzzy maths – The Economist
The IMF’s coffers are fuller, but the euro zone’s “firewall” is still flimsy
Europeans will never accept a federal banking system – The Telegraph
Hope springs eternal when it comes to efforts to save the euro.
Building euro-zone competitiveness: Mobile moans – The Economist
It should be easier for unemployed Europeans to move in search of work.
Europe's Other "Union" Is Ending – ZH
Almost a year ago, we observed the first crack in that other fundamental core of the European "union" experiment - the Schengen visa-free and customs-union zone.
Greece Pays Finland Collateral Money – BB
Finland’s got a [redacted] – alphaville / FT
EURO CRISIS: THE AUSTERITY DEBATE
From Austerity to Growth? – Place du Luxembourg
Roundup of recent articles: Indeed, we seem to have gone from “how do we impose as much austerity as possible to get rid of the bond vigilantes” to “wait we are not growing, now that’s the new problem… this stuff isn’t working”.
The World from Berlin: 'Europe Could Economize Itself to Death' – Spiegel
There are signs of growing dissatisfaction in Europe over the austerity measures pushed by Germany and other countries to solve the euro-zone debt crisis. But German editorialists bristle on Thursday at calls to stimulate growth and a proposal to let the ECB lend directly to banks in trouble.
Turning the Tide on Austerity – Street Light
The eurozone crisis is and always has been primarily a balance of payments crisis, not a fiscal crisis. So if we are finally nearing the end of the disasterous blanket prescription for austerity as the solution to the eurozone's financial market crisis, that can only be a good thing.
"Politics Is at the Root of the Problem" – The European
Austerity policies are driving us towards a double-dip recession, warns US economist Joseph Stiglitz. He sat down with Martin Eiermann to discuss new economic thinking and the influence of money in politics.
Hey, Not So Fast on European Austerity – NYT
Have they looked at their own numbers? It has been two years since moves to austerity started, but the crisis is still with us...Current measures aren’t working. Sooner or later, politicians and citizens will demand a strategy that does.
The EU budget: no solidarity during austerity – alphaville / FT
Earlier this week the European Commission’s proposed a whooping 6.8 per cent increase for next year’s EU budget. Cue outrage and fury
EURO CRISIS: FRANCE
France’s presidency: The man of the moment – The Economist
François Hollande looks very likely to become France’s next president. What will he bring to the job?
France's election: The rather dangerous Monsieur Hollande – The Economist
The Socialist who is likely to be the next French president would be bad for his country and Europe
The Debt Drug: How Long Will Hollande's Party Go On? – Spiegel
François Hollande is predicted to win France's presidential election, but his victory could endanger the euro zone's carefully negotiated fiscal pact. He also wants to water down the European Central Bank's statutes, forcing it to lend more to promote economic growth. But his plans would do little more than borrow time -- and they could be very dangerous for Germany.
EURO CRISIS: SPAIN
Pain in Spain is continuing to rain down on its citizens – The Telegraph
Sometimes the markets are shockingly complacent.
Recent developments in the Spanish economy – BIS
Testimony by Mr Miguel Fernández Ordóñez, Governor of the Bank of Spain, before the Parliamentary Committee on Budget Affairs, Madrid, 17 April 2012.
Spanish banks: False summit – The Economist
Mark down loans, raise capital, repeat
Spain's Credit Crunch: Euro Group Considers Direct Aid for Banks – Spiegel
The banking crisis in Spain has countries across Europe in a deep state of worry. A German newspaper is now reporting that the European Central Bank and a number of euro-zone countries would like to change the euro bailout fund in order to permit it to lend money directly to financial institutions in the throes of the crisis. Germany, however, is strictly opposed to the idea.
Spanish banks: Name and shame – Economist Intelligence Unit
Limiting the rescue to the country’s banks—without also pushing the beleaguered sovereign over the edge—is the best case scenario for Spain, according to the EIU. To some, this makes us sound stupid. It is a risk we are willing to take.
Will Spain Kill the Bull Market? – Pension Pulse
I can see bond vigilantes and elite hedge funds salivating at the prospect that Spain will be the next Greece, but let me assure you that no matter how bad things are, Spain isn't Greece and speculators trying to profit off some major Spanish calamity will end up getting badly burned.
Depression in Spain: Unemployment Rate Up .5 Percentage Points to 23.6%; Expect Much Higher Rates Later This Year; When is the Breaking Point? – Mish’s
…Spain has little chance for growth prospects for a decade as long as it remains in the eurozone. Eventually will come a time when a politician will hold up a copy of the EMU treaty, declare it null and void, and the debt null and void right along with it. That politician will be elected.Spain will be better off as soon as that happens.
If Spain Gets Downgraded in a Forest… – MarketBeat / WSJ
The ratings agencies may be behind the market, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the market’s ahead of the curve, either.
“Spain is in a crisis of huge proportions” said some guy named Jose – The Reformed Broker
Bailout is at the end of the playbook.