Mystery rally day - on what reasons? Buying ahead of the weekend, already discounting SMP, LTRO3 or EFSF money to Spanish banks? Practically all the news were negative, even Italy is postponing the budget balancing. Could the catalyst be that the IMF's just released outlook mentioned that the ECB has room to lower rates further?
News – Between The Hedges
News – Between The Hedges
Markets – Between The Hedges
Recap – Global Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
EURO CRISIS
If not the ECB, the BRICS could save the Eurozone...or Ze Germans... – Macrowonders
Legal challenges may delay eurozone bail-out fund – euobserver
Fiscal treaty - taking the EU in the wrong direction – euobserver
Europe Hemorrhages Through A Refinancing Operation Band-Aid – MarketBeat / WSJ
Funding pressures for European banks were significantly eased by emergency central-bank measures late last year, but there are now some troubling signs the pressures are returning… Europe must restore confidence in its financial markets and its single currency. It must put away the begging bowl it holds to the rest of the world and let the ECB buy the region’s bonds in unlimited quantities.
Funding pressures for European banks were significantly eased by emergency central-bank measures late last year, but there are now some troubling signs the pressures are returning… Europe must restore confidence in its financial markets and its single currency. It must put away the begging bowl it holds to the rest of the world and let the ECB buy the region’s bonds in unlimited quantities.
EURO CRISIS: PIIGS
LTROver – ZH
…consumer and residential delinquencies are flat, despite a surge in unemployment. I recommend taking this data with a giant grain of salt, given what one would normally expect. Markets are doing exactly that, which is why Spanish banks trade at less than tangible book value…
…consumer and residential delinquencies are flat, despite a surge in unemployment. I recommend taking this data with a giant grain of salt, given what one would normally expect. Markets are doing exactly that, which is why Spanish banks trade at less than tangible book value…
The European North-South Divide Is Exploding – ZH
JPMorgan’s charts
This just in: Spain won’t need a bailout. This bit of good news comes via Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg and president of the Eurogroup.
The Delays Begin: Italy Pushes Back Balanced Budget Target By One Year – ZH
Italy will delay by a year its current plan to balance its budget in 2013, according to a draft forecasting document to be approved by the cabinet on Wednesday.
Italy will delay by a year its current plan to balance its budget in 2013, according to a draft forecasting document to be approved by the cabinet on Wednesday.
IMF REPORTS
World Economic Outlook: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain – IMF
The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term.
Mediocre Growth, High Risks, and The Long Road Ahead – iMFdirect
Fiscal Monitor: Balancing Fiscal Policy Risks – IMF
Though past efforts with fiscal consolidation are beginning to bear fruit, debt ratios in many advanced economies are at historic levels and rising, borrowing requirements remain very large, financial markets continue to be in a state of alert, and downside risks to the global economy predominate. In this uncertain environment, fiscal policy must find the right balance between exploiting short-term space to support the fragile recovery and rebuilding longer-term space by advancing fiscal consolidation.
IMF to ECB: see you after the easing – alphaville / FT
From the IMF’s full April 2012 World Economic Outlook, just out at pixel time: The ECB has some room to further lower the policy rate
OTHER
Difficulties in forecasting the impact of shadow inventory on the housing market – Sober Look
It is composed of homes in which the owner is either very delinquent on the mortgage or is in the foreclosure process. These houses usually end up in the market at depressed prices, putting downward pressure on the overall housing market.
Artemis on Hedging the Wrong Tail Risk – HistorySquared
Another quick summary of the report. I know you haven't read this. I have posted about this three times now - someone even emailed the report to me today. Just read this quick summary, and perhaps you would then want to read the whole doc.
Basel III is looming. There is no escape. Tougher capital requirements for banks are on the way. But the phase-in doesn’t begin until next year, and the ramp-up process is long. Not until 2019 will Basel III be fully baked in.
OFF-TOPIC
John Maynard Keynes: Star Investor? – CXO
Keynes beat the markets
Fractal Finance: A Rogue Mathematician’s Search for Answers – The Triple Helix
On Mandelbrot
Video: Bizarre Magnetic Ferrofluids Will Blow Your Mind – Wired
There is no CG in the video above. What you’re seeing is pure, awesome science.
Magnificent Maps: Cartography as Power, Propaganda, and Art – brain pickings
What the feats of Marco Polo have to do with medieval political propaganda and the history of tea.