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Monday, April 23

23rd Apr - Merklande? Hollkel? Homer?

If Merkel's and Sarkozy's duopoly was called 'Merkozy', what would you call Merkel and Hollande? 
  1. Merklande
  2. Hollkel
  3. Homer

Drop me a line with your suggestions. You can get update notifications by following MoreLiver on Twitter or Facebook.

Previously on MoreLiver's:
Best of The Week from my earlier posts
Weekly Support roundups, reviews and also previews
Weekender: France & IMF French election and IMF meeting
Weekender: Euro Crisis Holland, PIIGS, monetary policy etc.
Weekender: Trading & Economics assets, players, news, research
Weekender: Off-Topics definitely not finance

Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank

Europe’s lunatics riseMacrobusiness
France, Holland, GreeceObviously this is an economic disaster and I have been at the front of the queue screaming about misguided economic ideologies in Europe that have led, and continue to lead, to this situation. However, it doesn’t take much of an imagination to realise that this has the potential to become something much more sinister than just ugly looking charts and that is my real concern.

Democracy Could Destroy the EuroTIME
Upcoming elections in France and elsewhere will likely show massive popular resistance to the austerity policies needed to save the common European currency

Eurozone Austerity by the NumbersThe Street Light
Today Eurostat released its official tally of the budget deficits recorded by the EU and eurozone countries during 2011

Gloom and doom pervades the Euro ZoneThe Big Picture
French elections, PMIs, Spain’s GDP contracting, ECB states it has done enough.

Europe Slumps To Three-Month Lows As Spain Nears 2009 LowsZH
ZH’s usual daily roundup of market movements in European session

The euro-zone threatFree exchange / The Economist
A fairly deep euro-zone recession would be less pleasant to handle—it would take most of the steam out of America's recovery, for instance—but it wouldn't represent a disaster. A euro-zone disaster would, however. That still looks unlikely, if only because euro-zone leaders, including the ECB, seem crazy enough to allow this mess to drag on but not quite crazy enough to permit another Lehman-like episode.

Roubini takes on the ECBMacroScope / Reuters
It was fun to watch. Nouriel Roubini, NYU economist and crisis personality, was one of just five carefully selected individuals at a large gathering in the IMF HQ1 building’s towering atrium who actually got to ask questions of the policymakers on stage.

Europe’s Austerity Backlash Gathers Steam in Merkel TestBB
French President Nicolas Sarkozy lost the first round of his re-election bid and a revolt against extra spending cuts in the traditionally budget-conscious
Netherlands propelled Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s coalition toward an early breakup.

Sovereign debt stats in the stocksalphaville / FT
It’s all about stock-flow adjustments, or SFAs — the curious cases when a government’s stock of debt increases without a corresponding change in its deficit to explain it… one possible cause often seems to be a government’s desire to make transactions without any immediate effect on worsening its deficit.

France and FrankfurtProject Syndicate
Financial markets nowadays are much more aggressive than they were in 1981. There is no possibility of a two-year period of experimentation. The result will be very intense pressure for a rapid redesign of European institutions, with the risk that the outcome will lack credibility – less a U-turn than a dead end.

Growth will save us? You bet!Golem XIV
There are so many reasons for believing that the European ‘recovery’ plan is not working now and will continue to not work no matter how long we are forced to subsidize it…I and others have said for well over a year that Spain had been hiding debts in its regions. This turns ou to have been true. A recent report by Carmel Asset Management paints a very ugly picture.

Barclays’s Montagne Says Euro Will Weaken to $1.25BB (mp3)

Credit Ag’s Chatwell Says Sub 2% Yields Will Not LastBB (mp3)

IMF’s Lipton Says European Firewall 'Reasonably Sized'BB (mp3)

French election: Five things that you’d never hear in the U.S.Wonkblog / WP
Unadulterated bashing of the financial industry, Very high taxes on the wealthy, Competition over who can pass stricter financial regulation, Policies to limit CEO pay, Even the far right is against free enterprise.

Hollande-Dazed and ConfusedMarketBeat / WSJ
Sarkozy has been a linchpin of the Franco-German alliance that called the shots in
Europe. If he goes, it will rescramble the political math. Francois Hollande, the man who finds himself the front-runner for France’s presidency, is no fan of the austerity brigades. The creation of a Merklande coalition (or Hollkel perhaps?) doesn’t seem like the first thing on his to-do list.

Pledges from Sarkollandealphaville / FT
RBC’s summary of candidate pledges and policies.

Wonkbook: Can a French Socialist save the euro zone?Wonkblog / WP
Hollande has also promised that, if elected, he will renegotiate the treaties governing the austerity targets across Europe. Some think this will doom the euro zone. Others think it's the only way to save it. The answer matters for more than just the future of Europe. It might decide the American election, too.

Dutch Political Mess: Another Leak in the Eurozone’s DikeMarketBeat / WSJ
Alastair Newton, political analyst at Nomura, had been flagging the situation as the Netherlands as a potential risk for the markets. He notes that it may be months before an election is held in the Netherlands, which could add to the already growing uncertainty in Europe.

Netherlands at core of the crisisMacroScope / Reuters
A Dutch debt auction on Tuesday will provide another test of investor appetite following Monday’s selloff.

EU commission: Dutch crisis no reason to dodge ruleseuobserver
In terms of the bigger picture, the Belgian economist added: "We all thought that only the [eurozone] periphery is showing cracks - Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy. But now the Netherlands are wobbling too, while Italy in fact is holding on quite well."

Charles Wyplosz Says Netherlands May Break RanksBB (mp3)

Eight of Ten Largest Stocks in Spanish Ibex Index Below Liquidation Value; Madrid Rejects Regional Budgets Representing 32.5% of GDP; Treasury Warns of "Immediate" InterventionMish’s
What happens in a eurozone breakup when Spain exits the Euro?...Capital flight is indeed underway and that flight will continue to pressure Spanish equities until it stops. Capital controls may be just around the corner.

Mr Rajoy, the figures don't add upEl Pais
Economists argue that Spain's draft budget underestimates pension costs and overestimates extra revenue from tax hikes

As the periphery sinks, the core followsPragmatic Capitalism
The core’s customer base (mainly the periphery) is weakening under austerity and slowly sucking the life out of the core.   Now the Euro crisis will start to kick into a more interesting phase because the phase it’s absolutely not going to kick into is the phase where they all grow out of this….

Spain's pains increase chance of 2012 rescue to more than 50%Saxo Bank