During the
weekend I posted the following:
29th Apr - Weekender: Off-Topic – not related to finance or
markets
29th Apr - Weekender: Trading &
Research - views, quant stuff, people, education
29th Apr - Weekly Support
- weekly reviews and previews
28th Apr - Best of The Week
best from my last week’s posts
You can get
update notifications by following ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook. Contact me with any questions or
suggestions.
News
roundup – Between
The Hedges
News roundup
– The Trader
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville
/ FT
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Positive sentiment in equity markets despite lower-than-expected US GDP data and the negative events in Spain last week. However, bond yields in safe-haven markets (primarily the US and Germany) continue to drift lower. Furthermore, the yen is strengthening against both the dollar and the euro. Moody’s is warning the Netherlands, while supporting the Spanish government in a weekly credit comment this morning ahead of Spanish GDP data today.
Positive sentiment in equity markets despite lower-than-expected US GDP data and the negative events in Spain last week. However, bond yields in safe-haven markets (primarily the US and Germany) continue to drift lower. Furthermore, the yen is strengthening against both the dollar and the euro. Moody’s is warning the Netherlands, while supporting the Spanish government in a weekly credit comment this morning ahead of Spanish GDP data today.
Morning Briefing: Currency Pain?
– BNYMellon
...the crisis is probably too far down the road, and instead, we
see the presumption of renewed profligacy (given the unleashing of
fiscal restraints, albeit flawed restraints) keeping Euro-area bonds
firmly under pressure.
European markets are likely to open marginally
higher Monday ahead of the French short-term bill auction due today. Moreover,
market speculation of further monetary stimulus from the US Fed following weak US GDP data has boosted investor
sentiment.
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
Mario Draghi's "signs of
stabilization" statement is coming back to haunt the central bank. Another
rate cut from the ECB, though largely symbolic in nature, is coming shortly.
Europe's "Dead Bank Walking" List And
An ETA Until The Next Contagion Peak – ZH
We see a significant possibility of the need for further ECB intervention in coming weeks and months to provide extra funds the financial system and sovereign in Spain, while the debate over banking reconstruction takes place… The market is unlikely in our view to provide the authorities the time to deliver solutions without further official support.
We see a significant possibility of the need for further ECB intervention in coming weeks and months to provide extra funds the financial system and sovereign in Spain, while the debate over banking reconstruction takes place… The market is unlikely in our view to provide the authorities the time to deliver solutions without further official support.
“A Trillion Here, A Trillion There...” – Why
90% Of The European Bank Sector’s Market Cap Is Vaporware* – ZH
UBS: The QIS states that the June
2011 shortfall of common equity to a 7% common equity tier 1 ratio for major
banks globally was €486 billion. We can estimate from this that the shortfall
to a 10% common equity tier 1 is €1.02 trillion. Some years hence and before
the mitigation that banks will undertake aggressively, but nevertheless, a
trillion is a striking numbers
The European Debt Crisis Redux – EconoMonitor
Beyond the German favoured remedy of
asphyxiating austerity to either cure or kill the patient, Europe is rapidly running out of ideas and
time to deal with the issues. As the real economy stalls and debt problems
continue, the most likely policy actions may come from the ECB – an interest
rate cut to near zero and further liquidity support, perhaps even full-scale
quantitative easing. Bailout funds may be channelled to recapitalise Spanish
banks, as a means of helping Spain without resort to a
full-blown bailout package. It is doubtful whether any of these steps will
work.
Andrew Sheng:
We cannot postpone the pain of adjustment
forever by printing money. Sustainability can be achieved only when the haves
become willing to sacrifice for the have-nots.
EURO CRISIS: PIIGS
If banks have sufficient loan-loss reserves
then why don't they simply take the losses now? If they can raise capital now,
then why don't they? If they cannot raise capital now, how will will they be
able to do so in the process of moving the assets to a non-bank bank?
The Secrets of the Spanish Banking System That
99% of Analysts Fail to Grasp – Gains Pains &
Capital
On that note, I fully believe the EU in its
current form is in its final chapters. Whether it’s through Spain imploding or Germany ultimately pulling out of the Euro, we’ve now reached the point of no
return: the problems facing the EU (Spain and Italy) are too large to be
bailed out. There simply aren’t any funds or entities large enough to handle
these issues.
So far, Brussels has not let facts get
in the way of a good neo-liberal theory, but it’s getting increasingly hard to
ignore this emerging horror show.
Don't Forget Portugal – ZH
Morgan Stanley sees a second bail-out by September with a bail-in to follow
Morgan Stanley sees a second bail-out by September with a bail-in to follow
It is likely that many households and
businesses, keenly aware of the lack of available credit, are simply not
seeking new funding now, which translates into what looks like declining
demand. But at least when it comes to credit conditions in Portugal, the problem is the lack of supply, not the demand.
OTHER
The business of universities is … education? Excellence?
Job placement? – Emmanuel
Derman / Reuters
Every day I seem to come across new articles or
incidents concerning universities that indicate the increasing strength of the
tidal forces pulling at them and their denizens
Two views of financial innovation – Felix
Salmon / Reuters
Frontline concentrates on international
finance’s discontents, most of whom are convinced that no matter how assiduous
financial-market regulation, the big banks will always find a way to extract
enormous rents for themselves. The WEF, by contrast, is convinced that
financial innovation is nearly always a good thing
Credit default swaps: Useful, misleading,
dangerous? – voxeu.org
Richard Portes: Once upon a time, credit default swaps were
a form of insurance held by investors who also owned the underlying asset. But
this column argues that the market has now become overwhelmed by ‘naked CDSs’
that allow speculators to make bets on the future of corporates and sovereigns
– bets that can be wildly destabilising. This column calls for a ban on naked
CDSs.
20-Year Real Return vs 10-Year P/E Ratio – Can
Turtles Fly