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| You can't have it all. Wiki |
During the weekend I posted these:
Best of The Week
To the links:
News And Market Re-Cap – RanSquawk / ZH
The euro zone today – MacroScope / Reuters
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
EM New York headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Morning MarketBeat – MarketBeat / WSJ
Morning Take-Out – DealBook / NYT
Morning Take-Out – DealBook / NYT
EZ Crisis Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
The Eye Of The Hurricane Passes: Full List Of European Known Knowns As The New Quarter Begins – ZH
UBS calendar, plus long discussion of event risks by country.
What would a European government do? – Kantoos Economics
Monetary policy not focusing on inflation but on nominal economy, preventing regional booms and sovereign debt growth, regional fiscal stabilization
Very nice.
The Weekender – bruegel
Some conclusions from the ECOFIN meeting, internal rebalancing and German wage negotiations, French politics and BRIC meeting
The Continent’s problems are as much demographic as financial. They won’t go away soon.
Eurozone manufacturing slump worsens in March – Global Macro Monitor
France's Presidential Hopefuls Look More and More Extreme – Businessweek
A Bizarre Political Comedy – Foreign Affairs
This week in the euro zone – MacroScope / Reuters
EURO CRISIS: EURO
Euro Was Flawed at Birth and Should Break Apart Now – View / BB
Charles Dumas: The blithe assumption that such imbalances would be evened out by the ready mobility of labor was always flawed…In the future, the euro can survive only if these surpluses are given away as unrequited transfers - more or less what is happening now, in the form of bailouts…leaving the euro area is likely to be cheaper than staying in it.
Euro-Doom Is Fantasy, Why the Currency Won’t Collapse – View / BB
Charles Wyplosz: Now it’s the turn of the opponents, and they are, of course, wrong. I say “of course” because currencies are meant to exist for centuries. Their performance cannot be judged after five or 5 years.
Charles Wyplosz: Now it’s the turn of the opponents, and they are, of course, wrong. I say “of course” because currencies are meant to exist for centuries. Their performance cannot be judged after five or 5 years.
By introducing a single currency without the institutions needed to make that currency work, Europe effectively reinvented the defects of the gold standard — defects that played a major role in causing and perpetuating the Great Depression.
EZ break-up stands to benefit the core – economistmeg
But if the EZ loses its weaker members, the smaller EZ that would result would consist of countries with a greater reputation for fiscal responsibility. Such a change in the profile of the membership might lead the strongest, wealthiest countries to become less opposed to issuing Eurobonds and to finally take the necessary steps to establish a fiscal union. The result could be a smaller but much stronger currency area.
A Primer on the Euro Breakup: Default, Exit and Devaluation as the Optimal Solution – John Mauldin (pdf)
Copy of the earlier Variant Perception breakup report.
EURO CRISIS: PIIGS
All Spain All the Time · Structural versus Cyclical Dilemmas · The Mother of All Housing Bubbles · Spanish Banks en Bancarrota · Meanwhile in the Rest of Europe · And Two More Leaked Documents · The Fat Lady Has Not Sung · San Francisco, New York, and Philadelphia
Has austerity gone too far? – voxeu.org
Is austerity self-defeating? Is it keeping Europeans underemployed for years and destroying the very growth needed to pay off the debt? Or is it steering nations clear of Greek-like tragedies? So starts a new debate on Vox on austerity, introduced in this column.
EURO CRISIS: ECB, LTRO, SMP, TARGET2
BizDaily: ECB policy concerns – BBC (mp3)
Former ECB board member Juergen Stark talks about the reasons for his sudden resignation last year. He reveals it was because of deep concern about the ECB's policy of buying the government bonds of indebted eurozone members. And Lesley Curwen talks to Dr Stephanie Hare of Oxford Analytica and the BBC's economics correspondent Andrew Walker about the new combined bailout fund for the eurozone. Plus, Lucy Kellaway tells us what we've always suspected - that too many meetings are bad for your brain.
Eurozone money market funds, a melting ice cube – Sober Look
Because of LTRO, a massive reduction in the availability of short-term non-government paper…This is creating difficulties for euro denominated money market funds.
Bundesbank tries to cap periphery exposure as TARGET2 claims spike – Sober Look
EURO CRISIS: ‘DEATH STAR’ ESM / EFSF
€300 Billion of “Firewall” Money up in Smoke – TF Market Advisors
I for one, would like to see a much different approach to dealing with the crisis then has occurred so far, but in any case, this is where we likely get. It will all come down to the ECB, with the backing of France and Germany deciding to go all in, or PSI (default) on a large scale.
European finance ministers meeting in Copenhagen on Friday agreed to boost the euro-zone firewall to over 800 billion euros. The move marks another U-turn on the part of the Merkel administration, which recently dropped its opposition to increasing the fund. German commentators warn that even the new firewall may still be too small.
EU hoping for IMF boost after firewall increase – euobserver.com
Euro Leaders Seek Global Help After Firewall Boosted – BB
Bailout fund figure fiddling not fooling IMF – Breakingviews / Reuters
Europe’s finance chiefs are fiddling numbers to get the bailout fund close to €1 tln in an attempt to get the IMF to pledge €500 bln, but IMF BRIC countries aren’t convinced say Reuters Breakingviews.
OTHER
Things that make you go hmmm… – Grant Williams / the trader (pdf)
Credit Derivative tutorial – Sober Look
276-page tutorial from Morgan Stanley (downloadable)
All About The Benjamins – good.is
Nice flashcard intro. The economy is complicated. Let us walk you through it.
How to be a better quant – Humble Student of the Markets
Another View: March Badness – DealBook / NYT
With his first book, “Backstage Wall Street,” hitting shelves this month, Mr. Brown sketched out a new type of tournament, a face-off between 16 well-known financial scandals. He calls it “March Badness.”
The rapidly shifting supply fundamentals in US natural gas – Sober Look
At the same time demand for natural gas is increasing, with gas replacing coal for some of the US power generation. Natural gas will even replace gasoline for certain applications over time. Ultimately this should lead to the leveling off of supply and the stabilization of natural gas prices.
OFF-TOPIC
How to Think Like the Ruling Class: Understanding the origins of state power – reason.com
The Tyranny of Numeracy – The Psy-Fi Blog
It seems that numeracy is the next big idea because important people, whoever they are, have suddenly woken up to the fact that having a workforce that needs to understand linear regression, but which actually can’t count the number of shoes it needs to find in the morning, is probably going to be a drawback in a world where math is increasingly going to differentiate the haves from the have-nots.