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| CDS market, killed by the eurocrats |
Another nasty day in the European debt markets (periphery vs. core spread increasing from both ends) and stocks down. Interesting to see if the recent ranges will hold or not. EURCHF tested the 1.20 peg level, clearly the risk-off and safe haven-flows are strong ahead of the holidays. Finnish speakers might want to check my earlier thoughts on Spain and the Firewall. Share the fun and make me a celebrity with Twitter, Facebook, email, paper.li.
The euro zone today – MacroScope / Reuters
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
EM New York headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Morning MarketBeat – MarketBeat / WSJ
Morning Take-Out – DealBook / NYT
EZ Crisis Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
EURO CRISIS
Spain’s Death Spiral and the Hypocrisy of the Euro – TIME
My answer to that is the euro is failing on both counts. It hasn’t helped turn Europe into a strong, competitive economy capable of contending with either the U.S.or a rising Asia. And where is the camaraderie supposedly behind the euro’s lofty mission? What I see is an increasingly undemocratic Europe, where countries are forced to take irrational steps by overbearing neighbors to preserve a common currency offering little good in return.
An IMF Absurdity – Testosterone Pit
On April 20, the finance chiefs and central bank governors of the Group of 20 will hold a shindig in Washington DC, at the margin of the biannual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. At issue is money. Bailout money for the Eurozone.
Eurozone I: Bail-outs are no substitute for reforms – bruegel
We are reminded almost every day that either the bail-out efforts must be greatly expanded or the Euro will perish. The biased pressure being exerted reflects the advantages to be gained by certain parties, and the erroneous beliefs of others. As to the advantages to be gained, it is easy enough to understand why creditors should prefer bail-outs for the debtor countries. And many political leaders also welcome the way that official crisis lending can ease market pressures. The media, meanwhile, thrives on its role as bearer of bad news.
ECB Rates Policy is Clogged in Key Periphery Markets – EconoMonitor
But a closer look across mortgage markets shows a worrying trend for key periphery economies. The pass-through from ECB rate setting policy to mortgage borrowing costs is clogged in Spain, Portugal, and Italy, where mortgage rates have risen since the ECB cut the refi rate to 1%. Indeed, these are the economies that ‘need’ the stimulus to offset the fiscal consolidation.
Crunch Time for Greece (Case for Bank Holiday and Eurozone Exit Now): Disbursements to Greece by the EFSF and IMF "Conditional on Compliance with Conditionality" – Mish’s
The first disbursement to Greece was on March 20. Disbursements are paid quarterly and no sooner, which effectively means that June 20 is the earliest next disbursement due date…We know Greece is insolvent and it raided University accounts held at the Bank of Greece to effect the March bond swap. We know the bond swap offer (450 million Euro) for issue XS0147393861 was rejected and is payable on May 15 (6 Weeks to go). Somehow it has to pay this before the next tranche.
OTHER
Sovereign CDS notionals - an update – Sober Look
Notionals falling after the 2011 EU meetings. CDS nominal vs. total debt small. Surprisingly, high numbers for Nordic countries.
OFF-TOPIC
Why Anonymous Is Not a Threat to National Security – Foreign Affairs
The U.S. government has begun to think of Anonymous, the online network phenomenon, as a threat to national security. This is the wrong approach. Seeing Anonymous primarily as a cybersecurity threat is like analyzing the breadth of the Vietnam antiwar movement and 1960s counterculture by focusing only on the Weathermen.
Seven rounds with Aki Kaurismäki – The Guardian
He thinks his own films are dreadful, Scorsese's worse, and despairs of mankind in general. Director Aki Kaurismäki on why only love, mushrooms and drinking on set keep him going