MoreLiver's Daily: 23rd Apr

1) The IMF came up with $430 billion in new firepower 2) Socialist Francois Hollande came out top in the first round 3) The left-field event of the weekend was the collapse of the Dutch government over budget plans.

Funding Spain and the year of the negative feedback loop – alphaville / FT

Credit Suisse, UniCredit views: We remain cautious, but increasingly on Italy rather than Spain at current levels – the news flow from Spain is likely to be negative – the economic backdrop is ugly, the regions will be difficult to get under control, and much remains to be done to sort out the banking sector…Italy has remained relatively under the radar during the Easter weakness but has considerable supply requirements which it is less clear the domestics will be able to support.

Firewalls: A bigger IMF war chest – Free exchange / The Economist

What the euro zone lacks is the institutional wherewithal to break a deadly paralysis. Its key institutions are stuck.

European banking resolution: What we have and what we need? – bruegel

These three speeches are very encouraging and contrast with the previous discretion of the ECB on these matters. The fact that they are also apparently coordinated means that they are more than personal reflections

Europe's EFSF 'Firewall' Risk At 3 Month Highs, Accelerating At Fastest Rate In 6 Months – ZH

Euro area: PMIs signal that the recession is not over – Danske Bank (pdf)

Dutch Government Collapses – Credit Writedowns

European Splintering Escalates: Dutch Government Falls; Slovakia Government Collapsed in March; Czech Government Collapse Coming Right Up – Mish’s

BizDaily: IMF boosts firepower 23 Apr 12 – BBC (mp3)

As the IMF increases its lending firepower to $430bn (£247bn), Justin Rowlatt asks Ngaire Woods, of the Blavatnik School of Government, why the extra funding is needed. Plus, Jeannie Cho Lee, founder of food website Asia Palate, explains why China is buying more and more of the world's fine wines. And finally, Lucy Kallaway looks at youth unemployment.

EURO CRISIS: FRANCE

French Toast – Macro and Cheese

It is not politically correct these days to support Sarkozy, so voter response to opinion polls may not be an accurate reflection of what people will do in the booths.

Hollande Wins Round One But Euroskeptic Le Pen Steals the Show; Strange Bedfellows; Can Sarkozy Win Round Two? – Mish’s

France: Hollande leads, Le Pen shocks in third place – euobserver

The surprising resilience of Sarko – The World / FT

EURO CRISIS: PIIGS

Spain Following in Ireland’s Footsteps – economistmeg

Ireland is small enough for a second round of EU/IMF funding to be affordable if it is needed. Spain is not. There is only enough money in the EU/IMF arsenal to bail Spain out once. If Spain were to fail to find sustainable growth during the course of a first bailout, it would get no second roll of the dice. Instead, we would face a debt restructuring in one of the EZ’s largest economies, with detrimental effects on global growth.

Italy's and Spain's central banks plugged a €131bn balance sheet hole, with TARGET2 – Sober Look

Spanish property crisis will require Ireland-style banking system recapitalization – Sober Look

FED & QE

FOMC preview: No further QE – Danske Bank (pdf)

FOMC Meeting Preview – Calculated Risk

What We Talk About When We Talk About QE – Krugman / NYT

QE Or Not QE, That Is The Question – Krugman / NYT

Distributional Impacts of Monetary Policy – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch

OTHER

Seven questions about global markets – alphaville / FT

Excellent ‘whys’ from JP Morgan

Things That Make You Go Hmmm – ZH

Grant Williams’ newsletter + pdf and scribd links

First Quarter Earnings: Truth in 3 Key Metrics – EconMatters

Earnings “Beat Rate”, Revenue “Beat Rate”, Guidance Spread

Self-Organizing the Investment Blogosphere – The Psy-Fi Blog

The Stay-Liquid-And-Wait Strategy? – Pension Pulse

What If Someone Wrote an Owner’s Manual for the Financial Markets? – The Reformed Broker

Top Links from the IMF – Global and Regional Economic Analysis for April – iMFdirect

Swaps regulation faces questions that should have been addressed 3 years ago – Sober Look

China PMI: Improvement from low level – Danske Bank (pdf)

The good news and the bad from the flash China PMIs – alphaville / FT

OFF-TOPIC

The Secret Life of a Society Maven – NYT

The story told of a friendship I had struck up with my New York doppelganger, a man who shared my name and whom I came to think of, with congenital self-absorption, as “the other” Alan Feuer. I had, for years, been getting Alan’s phone calls — from the Metropolitan Club, from well-mannered girls named Muffy — until one day, feeling curious and crowded, I looked up my double.

Undercover Anarchist – Rolling Stone

What happens when a cop falls in love with the radicals he's spying on? Mark Kennedy found out the hard way.

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Monday, April 23

23rd Apr - IMF hangover