News – Between The Hedges
Markets – Between The Hedges
Recap – Global Macro Trading (on holiday)
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
What should be clear is that the euro-zone's primary response to crisis—an obsession with rapid fiscal consolidation—has been mostly counterproductive… Of course, this is not mostly a crisis of ignorance. It is a crisis of institutions. Which is a shame, in a way. Hard as it is to change minds, it's harder still to change institutions.
Two Types of Credit Losses – TF Market Advisors
Yields, spreads and curve worse across the board. Loss type 1: default, loss type 2: forced to sell because the risk becomes too great.
Floored, but not unfloored – alphaville / FT
EURCHF tested the 1.20 floor set by the central bank. Citi: the move was seen as primarily stop-loss driven, with the market gapping lower after bids at 1.2030 got filled. We estimate EUR1-2bn was sold at 1.2000. RBC: We were only 50pts above the floor a month ago, so the SNB must have seen this might happen and planned for it.
Renewed European Fears Send CHF Soaring, Force Swiss National Bank To Defend EURCHF 1.20 Floor – ZH
Spain / Euro trouble (GS and JPM out with negative commentary),
Spain / Euro trouble (GS and JPM out with negative commentary),
EMU Reform – Still Far From the Right Solutions – EconoMonitor
The so-called “Treaty (!) on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the economic and monetary Union” released with fanfare in December, is juridically precarious, quantitatively insufficient, and qualitatively disappointing.
EURO CRISIS: SPAIN
UBS with nice macro charts and commentary: Spain remains weak; it will face a severe recession this year followed by another contraction next year. We also believe that the adjustment in house prices is far from finished.Foreigners rattling Spanish debt again – Sober Look
Good charts and discussion. The Spanish banks cannot buy their sovereign bonds as fast as foreigners are selling them. Should Buba and other core central banks decline them as collateral, sell-off would accelerate.
Spanish bonds / banks / bonds / banks – alphaville / FT
Bank of America: Italian banks are currently long cash compared to Spanish banks. This leaves them in a much better position to support their sovereign going forward. Nomura: A large and pre-announced form of QE would allow the ECB’s purchases to have the predictability that the SMP lacks, and hence to play a major role in the asset allocation decisions of investors.
Bank of America: Italian banks are currently long cash compared to Spanish banks. This leaves them in a much better position to support their sovereign going forward. Nomura: A large and pre-announced form of QE would allow the ECB’s purchases to have the predictability that the SMP lacks, and hence to play a major role in the asset allocation decisions of investors.
EURO CRISIS: OTHER PIIGS
Letter of Intent of the government of Portugal, which describes the policies that Portugal intends to implement in the context of its request for financial support from the IMF.
The eurozone x-factor – Finance Addict
It is worth noting, to the surprise of many commentators, that Euro notes are not formally issued by the ECB, but by each member State National Central Bank. Each Euro note is accordingly marked with a prefix letter according to its issuer… Germany is X, Greece is Y.
When safe assets return – alphaville / FT
Credit Suisse: Less debt, lower value, higher haircuts, and reduced collateral velocity: in our view, this is an ongoing and significant monetary shock.
Credit Suisse: Less debt, lower value, higher haircuts, and reduced collateral velocity: in our view, this is an ongoing and significant monetary shock.
The mystery of Morgan Stanley’s footnote unravels Part 1 – alphaville / FT
The mystery of Morgan Stanley’s footnote unravels Part 2 – alphaville / FT
Morgan Stanley announced (19-Jan) to the world that in the fourth quarter it managed to arrange a deal that reduced the bank’s net exposure to Italy from $4.9bn to $1.5bn while also recording a $600m boost to net revenue. What was it? Swaps with Italy?
ASSET CLASS VIEWS3 Charts On The 'Real' Deteriorating State Of Corporate Balance Sheets – ZH
Morgan Stanley: Leverage has stopped falling and in fact has started to tick higher…Cash/Debt is trending down rapidly and is far less supportive than it was…Margin Improvement is no longer broad-based…
Morgan Stanley: Leverage has stopped falling and in fact has started to tick higher…Cash/Debt is trending down rapidly and is far less supportive than it was…Margin Improvement is no longer broad-based…
Commodities Recover As AAPL Saves The Tech Sector – ZH
Chart roundup what the asset classes and sectors did.
Chart roundup what the asset classes and sectors did.
OTHER
Bank Downgrade Forward Calendar – ZH
Moody’s schedule for future (possible) bank downgrades, collected by Morgan Stanley.
The FOMC Minutes …QE3 And Inflation – The Big Picture
Two charts, article summaries and commentary.
March 2012: The Month in Charts – Alpha Now / Thomson Reuters
Very nice collection, takes no time to look and you are bound to get ideas.
So Goldman is Bullish On China (thanks to their model saying growth vulnerability is over-priced) while Roubini's fundamentals point to an initial soft landing transitioning to hard landing in 2013...hhmm - who to believe?
OFF-TOPIC
The Changing Face of Big Money – DealBook / NYT
Spring 2012 Special Section: about the super-rich
Spring 2012 Special Section: about the super-rich
Data Dive: Where Brokers Get a Second Chance – Registered Rep
Very few "terminated" brokers find work again in the industry, regardless of circumstances. What firms will hire them? Author and financial advisor Josh Brown looks at the numbers to find out.
Just One More Game ... – NYT
‘Stupid’ games are all the rage. Do check the flash game at the top of the page – you’ll be surprised!