Thursday, January 31
31st Jan - US Open: EURUSD a 'sell'? and Spanish Sofas
Really bad
numbers from Germany – retail sales far worse than
expected. This will begin playing a role in the coming elections. Talk that the
Fed will begin easing on the QE purchases sooner than currently anticipated.
What if the economy does not pick up in 2013? What will happen to the austerity
drive in Southern
Europe? Time
to start selling the EURUSD – FED approaches the limit, as Europe has no choice but to print, if the
crisis fires up again. I know that my long-term target has not been met yet (see my long-term view 21-Oct-2012).
Wednesday, January 30
30th Jan - US Close: Fed Blames Weather
Check my charts-page. Notice that the bond yields of the developed, non-crisis countries have been moving up for a month now - and the CDS prices have moved up as well. Interestingly, the crisis-hit PIIGS yields and their CDS prices have remained at low levels. The market is pricing in an economic recovery and an end to the euro crisis. Time to exit European bonds - if the economy improves, the bond prices are too high. And if the crisis erupts again, also the core European countries will be hit because of the shared debt burden.
Today, we had the FOMC meeting and the statement. The euro's strength has not gone unnoticed, and some really slick ones in Finnish.
Tuesday, January 29
29th Jan - US Close
Quote of the Day:
Speden puoluetoimisto tiedottaa:
Spede-puolue on kokoomuksen johdolla juuri saanut sovituksi uudesta verosta, joka on lasten viikkorahavero. Kyseinen vero koskee kaikkia lapsia pilteistä teineihin. Viikkorahavero on luonnollisesti progressiivinen, jotta ökyrikkaat yrittäjäkapitalistisiat osallistuisivat oikeudenmukaisemmin yhteiskunnan välttämättömien ulkomaisten tulonsiirtojen rahoittamiseen. Koska veroprosenteillahan me elämme, emme euroilla.
Veron kiertämisen estämiseksi on myös perustettu uusi Waltion Wirasto, jonka ainoana tehtävänä on kalkyleerata laskennallisia lasten viikkorahaveroprosentteja veronkiertotapauksia silmällä pitäen. Virastoon on alustavasti palkattu 154 henkilöä, joista puolet ovat naisia ja puolet naisista ja miehistä on maahanmuuttajia. Näin edistämme naisten ja miesten ja maahanmuuttajien tasa-arvoa.
Öhym.
Viikkorahaverosta ovat positiivisen segregaation nimissä vapautettuja tietyt erityisryhmät: kuten maahanmuuttajat ja RKP:läiset. Tämä on perusteltua, jotta yhteiskunnan hegemonia ja arvojärjestys säilyisivät eikä kukkoileville alkuperäisasukkaille vain tulisi tunnetta, että he olisivat jotain Euroopan omistajia. Verotuksen arvioitu tuotto tulee olemaan n. 100 miljoonaa euroa ja veron arvioidaan valtionvarainministeriön huippusalatun laskelman mukaan olevan täysin kulutuskysyntäneutraali. – Anonyymi
29th Jan - US Open: Quiet
FED begins its two-day meeting, statement tomorrow. US GDP on Wednesday the next important
macro, followed by more US data on Thu + van Rompuy & Barroso speeches. This week’s main event still the US employment report on Friday. Fears that good US numbers are ending the QE earlier than expected could start weighing on the EURUSD exchange rate - today's break from the recent range is one sign of that.
Monday, January 28
Sunday, January 27
27th Jan - Credit Guest: The Donk Bet
Martin from Macronomics is here with a guest post dismantling the Spanish banks, dissecting the LTRO and dissing Europe. Also goodwill gets some well-deserved bad rep. Go get'em!
Saturday, January 26
26th Jan - Weekender: Economics & Markets
Central
bank mandates still debated – growing understanding that asset prices are a big
contributor to the economic cycles, and the real solution is lessening asset
price volatility. As this volatility arises from credit booms and busts, the
key is monitoring asset prices and applying countercyclical banking and market
regulation. That has many implications
and will be hotly debated – and probably forgotten soon. Last week’s Economics
& Markets here.
26th Jan - Weekender: The World
European crisis has not been solved - and the solutions are not fun.
Friday, January 25
25th Jan - US Open: Loose ends
LTRO repayments out. Italian trouble brewing. US debt ceiling can kicked. Mali, Cyprus and EU budget talks ahead
25th Jan - Special: LTRO repayments
Updated 15:00 GMT 27-Jan. Note: if you are terribly interested in LTRO, you might want to check my most popular ever post LTRO The Ultimate Collection.
Thursday, January 24
24th Jan - EU Open
YEN AT 100 PER DOLLAR IS NO PROBLEM, JAPAN GOVT NISHIMURA SAYS
There will be no US Open update today due to my other commitments. Notice that the Cameron- and Davos-posts have been updated with new material.
Wednesday, January 23
23rd Jan - Special: Davos World Economic Forum
Last updated 15:00 GMT 27-Jan, latest at the bottom of the post.
Tuesday, January 22
Monday, January 21
21st Jan - Credit Guest: Cool Hand
The always Cool Macronomics strikes with a guest post, so give a big Hand to Martin, heeerreees:
21st Jan - EU Open
US is
closed today, so my next regular post will be Tuesday’s European open. To catch up after the weekend, may I suggest taking a look at my earlier Weekly Support and The World-posts - they should get you sorted for the week.
Sunday, January 20
20th Jan - Weekender: The World
Weekend’s
picks on Europe, US and Asia. IMF tells Greece needs more money in the coming years and the external balances are not improving - adding that a Grexit and default would be helpful for Greece. FT's alphaville mentions that the euro area's internal adjustments have not happened. The bailout of Cyprus and the Italian elections together with terrible macro are the near-term sources of worry.
Saturday, January 19
19th Jan - Special: FED in 2007
The US Federal Reserve has released its Open Market Committee's full discussions from 2007 - the year the crisis started. The first looks suggest that the Fed did not see the train coming, downplayed the initial bad news and then froze. I will add to this post later, as surely there will be plenty of debate on this - latest additions at the bottom of the post, have fun!
-MoreLiver
19th Jan - Weekender: Best of the Week
Here are
the ending week’s best picks. As usual, I try to select links that provide
unique points, or help summarizing the key drivers. Last week’s ‘Best of’ here.
19th Jan - Weekender: Weekly Support
The last
week reviewed – and the next previewed! Previous Weekly Support here. Additions & missing ones coming up later.
Friday, January 18
18th Jan - EU Open
Somewhat better than expected macro from China. Europe starting to get a taste of bad news, but just a feeling. USDJPY rejected the new highs, EURUSD on its way to range's bottom (perhaps to 1.3280)
Thursday, January 17
17th Jan - US Close: Cameron postpones, Cyprus next
What a day.... USDJPY breached the range highs ahead of next week's BoJ meeting, UK Prime Minister Cameron cancelled Friday's critical and anticipated EU-speech. Well, bank stress test results by PIMCO on the bailout needs of Cyprus are due as well tomorrow. Interesting times...
17th Jan - US Open
Greece and Portugal receive their payments, decides IMF. German economy minister pressures ECB to return to "mandate" - so strong euro today. JPY weak, and the USDJPY high is tested after a correction lasting only two days. Tomorrow the much anticipated speech on UK's EU-relations from the prime minister Cameron.
Wednesday, January 16
16th Jan - US Open
Bank earnings today in US, ECB's Nowotny came in to counter Juncker's yesterday's comment "euro too strong". Expect this contradictory commenting to remain a daily feature of the markets, and adjust trading accordingly.
16th Jan - EU Open: ECB Wants This
To continue my rant from yesterday:
While the Treaty clearly establishes the primary objective of the ECB, it does not give a precise definition of what is meant by price stability. The ECB’s Governing Council has announced a quantitative definition of price stability:
While the Treaty clearly establishes the primary objective of the ECB, it does not give a precise definition of what is meant by price stability. The ECB’s Governing Council has announced a quantitative definition of price stability:
Tuesday, January 15
15th Jan - US Close: It's Not Kosher!
We got the
first “EUR is too strong” message from Europe. Remember the crisis weeks, when on an almost
daily basis someone was talking the prices up (or down)? The European economy
is not performing, and the numbers are very clear on that. The recovery in US
will not flow to Europe if the EURUSD remains at current levels, but unless the ECB starts
printing just like the othersl, the euro will remain strong – unless the crisis erupts in
full mode again. So I think we’re in a Catch-22 situation:
Either you get a
serious financial crisis going on again, so that the ECB will have to print for
Spain and perhaps others...
...or we get a serious recession,
driving down the EUR against JPY and USD, but not before the recession
reignites the financial crisis…
It would be
so much easier for the ECB to just print now, but… it’s not kosher!
15th Jan - US Open
Germany’s recession confirmed, Ireland would like to have OMT support, Britain’s PM moves his speech earlier to
next Friday. EURUSD broke below its narrow trading range, signaling furher weakness. USDJPY correction also still underway. As I've said for the past couple of weeks, the silence in Europe was a bit premature.
Monday, January 14
14th Jan - Warren's F U
Warren tried to ruin my Walking Dead-marathon by telling me about something that happened in season 2. Just to show how nice I am I'll throw in his request. First one is free (click to enlarge).
14th Jan - US Open: Paused markets (Antti, haista paska)
Quote of the Day (Haista Antti paska):
Koneen hallituksen puheenjohtaja Antti Herlin sanoo viime perjantaina ilmestyneessä Talouselämässä, että olisi helppo olla jälkiviisas ja arvostella Suomen suuresta riskinotosta osallistuessaan euron pelastusoperaatioihin.
”Tämä olisi aika lailla turhaa.Tässä sitä ollaan ja nyt pitäisi pitää huolta siitä, että Euroopan asiat saadaan järjestykseen”, Herlin sanoo.
Haistakoon Antti pitkän paskan. Aivan mieletöntä liiketoiminnan subventiota Suomen veronmaksajien piikkiin, ettei vaan vahingossakaan asema Forbesin tuhannen rikkaimman joukossa vaarantuisi, ja nyt selitetään, että voivoi jälkiviisaus.
Sunday, January 13
13th Jan - Credit Guest: If at first you don't succeed...
The latest credit guest post from the literary giant of basis points, Macronomics, discusses Japan.
Saturday, January 12
13th Jan - Weekender: The World
US debt ceiling & the platinum coin solution, Japan's macropolitical turnaround. Europe seems a strange case of muddle through: bailout of Cyprus, Italian elections, Spain's bailout - they're all still ahead - but somehow markets are thinking that "the tide has turned". Based on what?
12th Jan - Weekender: Weekly Support
Here are
the links to weekly market previews and reviews. Last week’s ‘Support’ is here.
Friday, January 11
11th Jan - EU Open
Thursday, January 10
10th Jan - US Close: ECB Post-mortem & Papertrading results
 |
| Showing every transaction |
10th Jan - EU Open: ECB previews
ECB and BoE meetings ahead - no decisions expected, but especially possible ECB guidance will be listened closely. I collected some previews and comments below. Have a good one today.
Wednesday, January 9
9th Jan - US Close
Quote of the Day: (in Finnish): Suomesta Saksa on hyötynyt muutama kymmenen
miljardia. Hommahan meni niin, että Saksa myynyt PIIGS-maille tuotteitaan ja
Saksan pankit rahoittaneet PIIGS-maiden ostot. Sitten paska lensi tuulettimeen.
Tehtiin PIIGS-kusetukset, ERVVt, EVM:t, EKP-operaatiot, ja Saksan pankit ovat
nyt kuivilla. Suomella 50 Mrd€:n lasku odottamassa. PIIGS-maista Saksalla oli
nollasummapeli, mutta Suomelta sai muutama kymmenen miljardia koko EMU-alueen
himmelin kautta lopulta. – ’noonez’
9th Jan - EU Open
Another quiet day in the markets - JPY weakness only noticeable event. USDJPY about to start a new bull leg?
Tuesday, January 8
8th Jan - US Open: European risk coming back
WEF risk report published, ECB speculated possibly considering inflation targeting.
8th Jan - EU Open
Not much happening - EURUSD rally in my opinion due to a technical bounce, official excuse that Japan considers buying ESM bonds (which would obviously be EUR positive), but then it became apparent that Japan would use existing euro holdings to make the purchases. Move did not reverse after the later headline, so so much for the official excuse. Good that someone is buying ESM paper - I wouldn't.
Monday, January 7
7th Jan - US Close: 1 trillion coin and Basel-easing
The focus is now clearly on US debt ceiling and possible solutions to it (the famous 1$trillion coin being one of them) and the news that the Basel rules have been eased - giving banks four more years to get things in order.
7th Jan - EU Open: More to Banks
 |
| Mr. Häkä's version of austerity |
Quiet day on the newsfront - probably some rangetrading ahead after EURUSD bottomed out on Friday. USDJPY is also sitting at the rising trendline, so I'm expecting both pairs to move up for the next one or two sessions. Big news of the day is the extra time given to banks to bolster their capital - but one way or another this was expected - if only because of necessity. ECB and BoE meetings later this week are the next events to watch.
 |
| ECB's BS Balance Sheet |
Sunday, January 6
6th Jan - Weekender: Economics & Markets
IMF admits austerity has failed - but what does it mean: will we get money printing, fiscal transfers or nothing at all? Remember, politicians are slow to accept mistakes, especially their own.
6th Jan - Weekender: The World
Europe's crisis is in a stealth mode for the time being, while US is on the forefront (uncertainties over FED's policy, fiscal cliff, debt ceiling, earnings).
I believe that this will reverse in the coming weeks (or months): someone from the Fed states clearly what they want, US debt ceiling will be solved for now, earnings will be what they will be. Meanwhile in Europe the Italian elections, failure of previous austerity, Greek trouble, Spanish trouble and failure of new austerity measures (Finland), the explosion of debt- and loss mutualization through ESM, TARGET2 and EFSF will come to the front.
Latest next summer the heroin of eurosummits will be back driving the picture, followed by the aftermath and endgame after the German elections.
6th Jan - Weekender: Weekly Support
US
earnings, Fed policy and on top of the fiscal cliff, also the debt ceiling are
coming to focus. ECB and BoE meetings are the main events, US data is slow - so it will be a week dominated by deciphering statements from political leaders and the first earnings reports coming from the US.
6th Jan - Credit Guest: The Fabian Strategy
MoreLiver's dear friend Macronomics is back from the holidays with a long post on how the markets might be turning up in the early part of the 2013. Muddle through seems to be the name of the game - but will it be enough?
6th Jan - Fri Close & Payrolls
December US employment report was probably the most over-expected and over-interpreted number in years because of several things:
- Expectations had built up for a large increase in jobs because of good weekly figures, even given the fiscal cliff threat and Sandy's aftermath.
- The Fed's minutes made it clear that there will be an end to the money printing at some point, and employment report plays a big part in the timing of this event.
Friday, January 4
Thursday, January 3
3rd Jan - US Close: Fed minute rage
Plenty of stuff now...estimates for Friday's payrolls have been revised upwards, Fed minutes give the impression that QE is not forever and the thresholds on the low unemployment targeting might be seen faster than expected, perhaps already in 2013. Also, it is realized that the US fiscal cliff was really not solved, and the debt ceiling will be on us after just a couple of months.
3rd Jan - US Open
Somewhat "undecided/what next-feelings in the markets. EURUSD broke down from its recent range driven by bad European and good US numbers (manufacturing surveys). Tomorrow on Fri we get the payrolls and service PMI's to complement the manufacturing data.
Wednesday, January 2
2nd Jan - EU Open: Cliff No More
Back to regular posting after the holidays! Fiscal cliff deal done - or is it? Markets think so.
Tuesday, January 1
1st Jan - My most popular posts of 2012
My blog posts of 2012 that have been viewed most (in chronological order)
1st Jan - Preview of 2013
Some “2013”articles
I’ve seen. Tips welcomed – betray other blogs and snitch!
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