Quote of the Day: (in Finnish): Suomesta Saksa on hyötynyt muutama kymmenen
miljardia. Hommahan meni niin, että Saksa myynyt PIIGS-maille tuotteitaan ja
Saksan pankit rahoittaneet PIIGS-maiden ostot. Sitten paska lensi tuulettimeen.
Tehtiin PIIGS-kusetukset, ERVVt, EVM:t, EKP-operaatiot, ja Saksan pankit ovat
nyt kuivilla. Suomella 50 Mrd€:n lasku odottamassa. PIIGS-maista Saksalla oli
nollasummapeli, mutta Suomelta sai muutama kymmenen miljardia koko EMU-alueen
himmelin kautta lopulta. – ’noonez’
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups and
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Roundup – Kiron
Sarkar / The Big Picture
Tomorrow’s Tape: Jobless claims, ECB meeting – WSJ
Morning
Briefing (Asia): Markets Await BOE and ECB
Decisions – BNY
Mellon
US: VIX Breaks Losing Streak As Everything Bought
Except Apple – ZH
Reference
Debt crisis
live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic
Calendar – Forexpros
EUROPE
Some People Still Think Currency Unions Are a
Good Idea – WSJ
You might
have thought that the euro zone's struggle to avoid a catastrophic splintering
over the last three years had pretty much ruled out any possibility that anyone
would still consider currency unions to be a good idea, but you'd have been
wrong.
In the euro area, it’s pretty much going to
suck for awhile – alphaville
/ FT
research from Goldman Sachs
The Eurozone’s Agenda in 2013 – Project
Syndicate
EU leaders
concluded 2012 with a landmark agreement that places all eurozone banks under a
single supervisor. But they have clearly refused, at least for now, to hold a
serious discussion about deeper integration, without which the euro crisis
cannot be overcome.
GERMANY
What's Good For the Goose...? – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
German
plans for further austerity indicate that fiscal policy remains a downside risk
for the European economy.
The export
boom may benefit German industry, but wages and living standards have stagnated
and poverty is rising
PIIGS
Why Cyprus is Important – Marc to
Market
Amounts not
determined, presidential elections in Feb, Troika in disagreement, political
issues, euro exit risk.
Merkel Confronts Growing Skepticism on Bailout
Aid to Cyprus – BB
Merkel warns Cyprus not to expect special
treatment – euobserver
German
Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned Cyprus it should not expect special
treatment when negotiating the terms of its bailout, which she suggested would
not be concluded anytime soon.
Hard-hit by
the crisis, Lisbon is wooing rich investors from its former colonies. Anyone who invests
in the country has a good chance of obtaining a visa — and an open door to the
rest of Europe.
Regional youth
unemployment rates mapped out.
…with the
success of yesterday’s €2.5 billion syndicated bond sale, had eliminated the
“funding cliff” presented by a €11.9 billion bond repayment due in mid January
2014.
UNITED STATES
Barbarous Relics – Krugman /
NYT
If we have
a crisis over the debt ceiling, it will be only because the Treasury department
would rather see economic devastation than look silly for a couple of minutes.
A Look At The Fed's Nest In 2013: Here Are This
Year's Voting Hawks And Doves – ZH
Q#4 for 2013: What will the unemployment rate
be in December 2013?
– Calculated
Risk
My guess is
the participation rate will remain around 63.6% in 2013, and with sluggish
employment growth, the unemployment rate will be in the mid-to-high 7% range in
December 2013 (little changed from the current rate).
Q#5 for 2013: Will the inflation rate rise or
fall in 2013? – Calculated
Risk
Given the
Fed's tolerance for a little more inflation, we might see a little more
inflation in 2013 than in 2012 - but I still expect inflation to be near the
Fed's target. With high unemployment and low resource utilization, I don't see
inflation as a threat in 2013.
Time for the great rotation? – Buttonwood
/ The Economist
So while we
may well see fund flows move in the direction of the equity market, it seems
hard to believe we will see a massive asset reallocation. Pension funds, for
example, are heading inexorably towards bond-heavy portfolios as their
membership matures and they reduce risk and aim for income; the same approach
will be followed by ageing savers all around the developed world. A
mini-rotation is more likely.
OTHER
Why Europeans and Americans Are Addicted to
Budget Brinkmanship
– PIIE
The common
refrain echoing through American politics, especially from Republicans, is that
the United States must avoid, at all costs, becoming another Europe. How ironic, then, that thanks to
Republicans, American and European politics have come to rely on the same sort
of budget, borrowing, and fiscal brinkmanship.
Passing the debt buck from the public to
private sector – Pictet
The
December 2012 issue of Perspectives is now available for reading and
downloading. Here is December’s topic of the month: as credit mechanisms have
broken down, developed economies have been powerless since 2008 to return to
potential rates of GDP growth. 2012 does seem to be closing on a more heartening note though:
deleveraging in the private sector in the US looks to be over. The daunting
challenge and big hope as the world moves into 2013 is to get credit flowing
again. (or Zero Hedge’s summary)
IN FINNISH
Instituution kuolema
– surumarssi suomalaisella laatujournalismille – tyhmyri