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Tuesday, January 22

22nd Jan - US Open: BoJ Tremors today, Cameron tomorrow

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Frontrunning – ZH

Overnight: Market Fades Open-Yended Monetization – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: Wobbly Tech Stocks Face Earnings Parade – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
BoJ & Good German ZEW – Marc to Market

Analysis: No respite for euro zone in long rebalancing slog Reuters
The euro zone crisis is entering a new, treacherous phase for governments, which can only cross their fingers that slow-burn reforms will pay off before voters get fed up with austerity and high unemployment.

In Euro Zone, Signs of Progress and Fears of ComplacencyDealBook / NYT
Europe's political leaders have taken important steps to improve spending discipline among euro members, but have yet to address some serious flaws in the structure of the euro zone.

Merkel and Hollande dream of EU 'utopia'euobserver
German and French leaders encouraged young people to dream of a "utopian" federal state with common taxation on the eve of the Elysee treaty anniversary.

EU should act on press violations, report sayseuobserver
Media freedoms throughout the Union are menaced by political interference, commercial pressures, and advertising interest, a new report says.

The three dimensions of the euro area crisisECB
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Asia-Europe Economic Forum conference on European troubles, Asian worries, Brussels, 21 January 2013

Euro Area Grapples With ESM Rules as Legacy Assets LoomBB
Ministers seek an agreement in the first half of this year on how and when the 500 billion-euro ($668 billion) European Stability Mechanism can bypass governments and provide direct help to banks.

Dijsselbloem Preaches Balanced Budgets as Euro ChiefBB

EU states to get go-ahead for tax on tradingReuters
Germany, France and nine other euro zone countries will get the go-ahead on Tuesday to start work on a financial transactions tax, a measure likely to unsettle banks and trading houses but which will please voters and could raise much-needed revenue.

FI Strategy – LTRO and the early repayment optionNordea (pdf)
On Friday, January 25, the ECB will announce the first amount to be repaid of the three year LTROs. We estimate EUR 200bn to be paid back during 2013, with limited market impact in the short term.

Monetary targetry: Might Carney make a difference?
The Bank of England’s Governor-elect has argued for a switch to a nominal GDP target. This column points out problems with nominal GDP targets, especially in levels. Among other issues, nominal GDP targeting means that uncertainty surrounding future real growth rates compounds uncertainty on future inflation rates. Thus the switch is likely to raise uncertainty about future inflation and weaken the anchoring of inflation expectations.

Saving the Euro, Dividing the UnionForeign Affairs
The collapse of the eurozone no longer seems likely, thanks to its members' decisions to coordinate their fiscal policies more closely. But it is exactly that tighter integration that has made many Euro-skeptic Brits want to opt out of the EU altogether.

Seven hazards in David Cameron’s intended European policyeuropp / LSE
This week sees UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s long anticipated (and delayed) speech on the UK’s relationship with the EU. Michael Emerson sets out seven major hazards that his expected policy positions will have to overcome, ranging from defining its core objective, problems with the referendum process, and the economic costs of generating uncertainty over the EU/UK relationship.

Right speech, right time?Open Europe
Can Cameron tackle the tough questions about Britain and Europe? David Cameron will tomorrow make his long-awaited speech on Europe and Britain’s role within it.

The Strange Case Of Diverging Spanish Exports And What It Means For EuropeZH

Greece’s New Loan Payout Cleared by Euro Area Signals OptimismBB

The boom this timeFree exchange / The Economist
The case for cautious bullishness on the American economy is strong. For the moment, it looks as though America will avoid a damaging fiscal showdown and a major fiscal policy contraction, both of which were considered major threats to the 2013 outlook. This isn't a sure thing, but the outlook is much better than it was a few months ago.

Why I am worriedHumble Student
I suppose that I should be happy and bullish. US equities staged a significant upside breakout last week, indicating positive price momentum.

Elevated energy prices pose a threat to US recoverySober Look

Morning Briefing (EU/US): Everybody’s TalkinBNY Mellon
... But will it make any difference to the protagonists in “currency wars”?

Entering Into 2013 - Part 4Short Side of the Long
Let us now turn our attention to all commodities and not just the precious type.

Meanwhile, In Global FX Markets Today...ZH
Citi: If a weaker currency is going to be the ticket to faster GDP growth, you have to be open to the possibility that you will need lots of it. You end up with a currency war, not because depreciations have such a big impact on activity, but because you need a big depreciation to get any significant impact.

Sovereign Risk IndexBlack Rock
Interactive tools, worth a check

World in 2050PwC Economics (pdf)
The BRICs and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities

Japani ja keskuspankin rahanluontioperaatiot – johan se onkin jo niiden aika!tyhmyri

Suomea uhkaa "sulkeutuminen" - Ruotsi menee ohiTE
Ernst & Youngin mukaan Suomi on jäämässä jälkeen Ruotsista globalisaatiokehityksessä.

Työttömyyden lasku lähinnä tilastoharhaaNordea (pdf)
Tuoreet tiedot eivät muuta käsitystämme työmarkkinoiden suunnasta. Talven ja kevään mittaan näemme huonompia työllisyys- ja työttömyyslukuja ennen kuin talous alkaa uudelleen toipua vuoden
2013 aikana.

Navigaattori – Auringonnousua AasiassaNordea (pdf)
Kiinassa ja Japanissa talousnäkymät ovat piristymässä * BRIC-valuutat - vahvistumisen vuosi 2013 * Euriborien nousu on alkanut * Yrityksen tulokseen kohdistuva valuuttakurssirisk