Plenty of stuff now...estimates for Friday's payrolls have been revised upwards, Fed minutes give the impression that QE is not forever and the thresholds on the low unemployment targeting might be seen faster than expected, perhaps already in 2013. Also, it is realized that the US fiscal cliff was really not solved, and the debt ceiling will be on us after just a couple of months.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups and
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Reference
Debt crisis
live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic
Calendar – Forexpros
EUROPE
Europe – Dr. Ed’s Blog
These
extraordinary declines weren't triggered by any improvement in the sorry state
of state finances in the euro zone. Rather, they started when ECB President
Mario Draghi declared in late July of last year that he would do “whatever it
takes”… Draghi’s fairy dust also stopped the massive capital outflows out of Spain and Italy into Germany, as evidenced by the flattening of
TARGET2 balances since last summer
UNITED STATES
FED
Wait, QE Won’t Last Forever? – MarketBeat
/ WSJ
Minutes of
the Fed’s latest policy meeting last month showed central-bank officials were
divided about when to stop all of the quantitative easing that is flooding the
markets with liquidity.
Fed says it’s running out of bullets – MarketWatch
For the
first time since the financial crisis started five years ago, the Federal
Reserve has at last made its first signal that its extraordinary loose monetary
policy will start to get tougher.
FOMC Minutes: "Several" members
expect QE3 to end in 2013 – Calculated
Risk
It appears
several members expect QE3 to end in 2013. Also, all but one member was in
favor of economic thresholds for raising the Fed Funds rate.
The Fed isn't very bullish on '13, and five
other takeaways – Wonkblog
/ WP
FOMC minutes: hawkish hints, but not really – alphaville
/ FT
These
minutes are for the meeting at which the Fed announced its switch to a version
of the Evans’ Rule. While that change was expected, it wasn’t expected to be
made as soon as it ultimately was.
FOMC Minutes - Expectations And USD
Implications – ZH
Citi: The
question is whether the Fed really meant to convey that type of hard
conditionality or incipient stimulus withdrawal.
FOMC minutes: asset purchases to end in 2013 – Danske
Bank (pdf)
QE3 and beyond – EconoMonitor
Now that
we’ve closed the books on 2012, I thought it might be useful to take a look at
where monetary policy has led us over the last four years.
PAYROLLS
Survey: US Employers Add 215K Jobs in December – TIME
A private
survey shows U.S. businesses sharply increased hiring
in December, helped by a surge of new construction jobs created to help rebuild
from Superstorm Sandy.
Also our
second macro call of the year will be above consensus, just as ISM earlier this
week. The strong market sentiment partly attributed to the recent fiscal cliff
decision may lose some momentum if our model for tomorrow´s nonfarm payrolls is
correct (pointing at 170k vs consensus at 150k), and the expected maturity and
size of the open ended QE program is reduced.
ADP Private Payrolls Spike To 215K, Above Expectations On Spike In
Construction Jobs - Now With Infographic – ZH
FISCAL CLIFF
Forget the market rally. The fiscal cliff deal
is still a drag on growth. – Wonkblog
/ WP
How the fiscal cliff deal will affect the
economy and deficits, in six charts – Wonkblog
/ WP
Why The 2013 'Debt Ceiling' Debacle Will Be
Worse Than 2011 – ZH
Goldman Sachs: We had previously estimated that fiscal policy at the federal, state, and local level would weigh on growth by 1.6pp on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2013; we believe the final package will be similar at around 1.5pp drag on growth.
Goldman Sachs: We had previously estimated that fiscal policy at the federal, state, and local level would weigh on growth by 1.6pp on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2013; we believe the final package will be similar at around 1.5pp drag on growth.
Fiscal Cliff Loose Ends – ZH
Citi: The
deal leaves a large number of loose ends that ensure high drama for the next
two months on the US fiscal front.
OTHER
Quarterly Chartbook – JP
Morgan
69 pages of chart goods (or download the pdf,
but you’ll miss the audio comments)
The coming
year will prove more challenging than 2012 for some policy makers
The Market's
Dislocation From Fundamental Reality? – ZH
The current chasm between Global Manufacturing PMI and MSCI
World suggests either stocks are off in fairy-land again or there is about to
be the biggest surge in the global economy since 2009
Nine Observations on
Q3 Currency Reserve Data – Marc
to Market
Investment Outlook
January 2013 – PIMCO
Bill Gross: Money for Nothin’ Writing Checks for Free
Economy isn't the
real beneficiary of fiscal cliff deal – Fortune
Mohamed El-Erian: The political compromise does little
to address the consistent headwinds that undermine growth, hold back corporate
investment, and dampen job creation.
EMEA Weekly – Danske
Bank (pdf)