ECB and BoE meetings ahead - no decisions expected, but especially possible ECB guidance will be listened closely. I collected some previews and comments below. Have a good one today.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups
News
roundup – Between
The Hedges
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging
Markets Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Reference
Debt crisis
live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic
Calendar – Forexpros
MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers to Watch: BOE and ECB decisions plus
US jobless claims –
TradingFloor
The market
is expecting no changes in today's interest rate decisions from the BOE or the
ECB, and jobless claims in the US will probably drift lower. No news
is good news?
Market Preview: Focus on ECB and BoE interest
rate decision – TradingFloor
European
markets are expected to open higher Thursday. Markets await the ECB and BoE
interest rate decision later today and the post meeting press conference for
cues on their policy stances. The US initial jobless claims also holds
interest today.
All eyes
are on the ECB and BoE meetings – we do not expect changes to current policy. Strong
Chinese trade data support Asian markets this morning. JPY continues to weaken
on expectations of monetary policy easing from the BoJ.
Aamukatsaus – Nordea (pdf)
Kiinan ulkomaankauppa vilkastunut * EKP:lta tuskin lisää
elvytystä * Saksan vaisut teollisuustuotantoluvut painoivat euroa ja tukivat
maan korkoja
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola
(pdf)
Päivitimme lyhyeksi myytyjen (shortattujen) Suomi-yhtiöiden
tilanteen ennen tuloskautta. Sanomassa (TOP 5 osake) kaikkein suurin
shorttipositio suhteessa keskimääräiseen päivävaihtoon. Osakemarkkinan
liukuminen kääntyi eilen loivaan nousuun. Kiinasta julkaistiin odotuksia
parempia vientilukuja aamulla. Fokus tänään EKP:n korkokokouksessa ja Draghin
kommenteissa. Osakefutuurit marginaalisesti plussalla, indikoiden nousuavausta
pörssiin.
Markkinakalenteri – Nordnet
Markkinakalenteri – Taloussanomat
EUROPE
Draghi Spared as Confidence Mood Swing Quells
ECB Rate-Cut Talk –
BB
Improving
confidence indicators have eased pressure on the European Central Bank
president to reduce the benchmark rate from a record low, a move fraught with
the unknown consequences of possibly pushing the deposit rate below zero.
ECB Preview: LTRO loans coming back – TradingFloor
ECB Preview: LTRO loans coming back – TradingFloor
No policy
action is expected, but ECB president Mario Draghi will probably be asked about
threshold-based central banking. Also, banks could start returning the LTRO
money early beginning from 29 January.
PREVIOUSLY POSTED
ECB preview – no rate cut, but dovish tone – Nordea
Euro’s ‘Draghi Put’ Could Be Coming to an End – Euro
Crisis / WSJ
Draghi Seeks Extended Calm in 2013 on Fading
Euro Economy – BB
Price level targeting – next ECB easing step – Nordea (pdf)
A temporary
price level target path would signal that the ECB will keep interest rates at
the current very low level for longer and specifically beyond the point where
medium-term inflation is projected to return to 2% and until prices return to
the level path consistent with 2% inflation on average.
ECB in Wait-and-See Mode – WSJ
The ECB is
likely to leave interest rates on hold for a sixth straight month on Thursday,
amid tentative signs that the euro zone's battered economy is bottoming out
although some economists don't rule out a rate cut at some point in the first
quarter of the year.
The banker
now in charge of rescuing the euro wants his top staff to take Sundays off.
Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, eschews long meetings and refrains from
lecturing his colleagues, senior ECB officials say.
ECB preview: Keep an eye on the excess
liquidity – Danske
Bank (pdf)
UNITED STATES
Q#3 for 2013: How many payroll jobs will be
added in 2013? – Calculated
Risk
My forecast
is close to the previous two years, a gain of about 150K to 200K payroll jobs
per month in 2013.