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Monday, January 21

21st Jan - EU Open

US is closed today, so my next regular post will be Tuesday’s European open. To catch up after the weekend, may I suggest taking a look at my earlier Weekly Support and The World-posts - they should get you sorted for the week.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT


Market Preview: EU finance ministers meeting and German PPI eyedTradingFloor
European markets are expected to open higher Monday amid receding worries about the persistent deadlock in US debt ceiling talks. Meanwhile, market participants are keeping an eye on the EU finance ministers meeting and German PPI slated later today.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Republicans ready to extend the federal debt limit by three months. Slightly stronger JPY as Bank of Japan starts its two-day meeting where aggressive measures to weaken the yen further are expected. Market movers today: Today’s Bank of Japan starts two-day meeting, Eurogroup meeting, US bank holiday and presidential inauguration

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Kuluttajaluottamus laahaa USA:ssa * Japanin keskuspankilta aggressiivisempia elvytystoimia? * Odotukset Japanin keskuspankin elvytyksestä painoivat jeniä

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)

Viime perjantaina markkinat sulkivat nousussa, kun USA:n republikaanit suunnittelevat kolmen kuukauden pidennystä USA:n velkakattoon. Tuloskausi käyntiin tällä viikolla myös Suomessa (torstaina Basware, Kone ja Nokia 4Q12). Osakefutuurit marginaalisesti plussalla, indikoiden flättiä tai nousuavausta pörssiin. OMX HEX:ssä vain 1.4%:n tuottopotentiaali? Tavoitehinnat ei ole mielestämme kovin luotettava tuoton selittäjä.


Great Graphic: Europe's Unit Labor Costs and ProductivityMarc to Market
Italy now has the highest unit labor costs in the euro area and has seen no substantial improvement since the onset of the crisis. France also has seen little improvement.  The labor market reforms are pending and may change change this, but it is too early to tell.   In addition, Portugal's improvement seems to have stalled recently. 

Surprising Loss For Merkel Coalition In Lower-Saxony Ahead Of German General ElectionZH

The political economy of BrixitThe Current Moment
Europe inherited a mixed economy social contract from the ruins of WWII.  This remains generally popular among the public.  Nevertheless, elites want to unwind it.  In France, Germany and elsewhere the way to do this is through EU directives; this way you can make a show of resistance as if it were not your idea all along.  But Britain has gone neoliberal on its own, domestically, without any push from Brussels.  They don’t need the fig leaf (EconoSpeak’s comment)

Tories accidentally sell the EU to BritainFistful of Euros
So, we’re still waiting for Cameron’s big speech on Europe, which has grown a Twitter hashtag (#TheSpeech) during its repeated postponements. Curiously, if the prime minister had set out to make the case for the European Union, he couldn’t have done better. As the dithering continues, the polls are shifting steadily towards more support for staying in the EU.

Why Cyprus Is Big Enough To Cause TroubleZH
UBS: The conditionality that comes with this programme does not go down well with the current Cypriot government, whereas politicians in core eurozone countries have started to point fingers at the small economy’s low-tax, soft banking regulation business model. What emerges is the threat of another deadlock

Is There a Big Inflation Mystery in Greece?Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
The Troika is remaking the energy sector, with the consequence of rising prices in a way that looks like a sectoral supply shock that is very obviously distinct from the demand side disturbance.

Bank of Japan preview: BoJ to succumb to political pressure and raise inflation targetDanske Bank (pdf)
We expect the inflation target to be raised from 1% to 2% and the ceiling for purchases of financial assets to be raised by JPY10trn to JPY86trn. However, there are increasing signs that the asset purchase
programme could be ‘open-ended’ until the inflation target is reached. It is also possible that the interest rate on banks’ excess reserves will be cut from 0.1% to zero and the maturity of BoJ’s government bond purchases will be increased.


Location, Location, Locationalphaville / FT
The 2013 Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey – a piece of work often quoted by bubble hunters and rubbished by the property bulls

FX Comment: White Flags in the Currency WarNordea

What's Next in 2013? 12 Critical Answers for the Year AheadBlackrock

Around The World In 22 ChartsZH

German Spy Agency: Geopolitical Consequences Of US Oil BoomTestosterone Pit
Much digital ink has been spilled about the US oil & gas boom, and whether or not it will lead to energy independence, or even turn the US into an oil exporter. Now a “confidential” report by the German version of the CIA, the Bundesnachrichtendienst, seeped to the surface. It sketched out the boom’s geopolitical consequences. Biggest loser? China.