Previously on MoreLiver’s:
US CLOSE
Roundups &
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between The Hedges
Recap – Global Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Morning
Briefing (Asia): – BNY Mellon
US: Blow-Off Top? Or Just Another Run-Stop? AAPL 12% Drop! – ZH
US: Blow-Off Top? Or Just Another Run-Stop? AAPL 12% Drop! – ZH
EUROPE
IMF chief: 2013 is make-or-break year for
eurozone – euobserver
IMF chief
Lagarde has said eurozone leaders should "keep the momentum" of
reforms like the banking union, with recession to linger in 2013.
The world can stop panicking – for the moment – The
World / FT
Martin Wolf:
The financial panics are over. Now we must deal with the longer-term aftermath.
I advanced this thesis at a private dinner last night and, to my surprise,
Nouriel Roubini agreed with me. More precisely, he agreed that “tail risk” had
been sharply reduced. The big change of the last 12 months has, of course, been
in the eurozone.
Spanish joblessness climbs again, no relief in
sight – Reuters
Spain's unemployment rate soared to its
highest level since measurements began in the 1970s as a prolonged recession
and deep spending cuts left almost 6 million people out of work at the end of
last year.
Macro Strategy – Watch IFO – Nordea (pdf)
The trough
in German macro is evident (see Global Alpha’s Roadshow), and as such there is
little surprise that IFO will fall in line with this. If anything we see a more
solid trough in various core countries, e.g. despite the lackluster French PMI the macro model for French GDP (based on various hard data) has
continued to trough.
MARKIT PMI
The Markit
Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index rose for the third consecutive month in January
according to the flash estimate, up to a ten-month high of 48.2 from 47.2 in
December, and up sharply from October’s post-crisis low of 45.7.
Recession-hit euro zone has turned a corner – Reuters
The euro
zone economy took a step closer to recovery this month as the rate of decline
in the bloc's private sector eased more than expected, a business survey showed
on Thursday.
Euro area PMIs show a divided Europe – Danske
Bank (pdf)
LTRO
Ten Things You Should Know about the LTRO – Marc
to Market
The ECB’s 3-year LTROs and the shift in credit
supply – Alea
Payback of ECB Lending to Mark New Step Back to
Normal – WSJ
EURUSD Is Vulnerable Ahead Of 'LTRO Friday' – ZH
Note from Citi.
OTHER
Morning Briefing (EU/US): All We Are Saying ...
revisited – BNY
Mellon
Further
thoughts on the ECB's role in "currency wars"
Global Alpha Weekly – Nordea (pdf)
FX: Safe-havens out of fashion * Fixed Income: Steeper
yield curves a major them in 2013 * LTRO and the early repayment option