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Monday, January 7

7th Jan - EU Open: More to Banks

Mr. Häkä's version of austerity

Quiet day on the newsfront - probably some rangetrading ahead after EURUSD bottomed out on Friday. USDJPY is also sitting at the rising trendline, so I'm expecting both pairs to move up for the next one or two sessions. Big news of the day is the extra time given to banks to bolster their capital - but one way or another this was expected - if only because of necessity. ECB and BoE meetings later this week are the next events to watch.

ECB's BS Balance Sheet
Do check my extensive postings from the weekend - plenty of quality links there.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:                  

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Debt crisis live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros

3 Numbers To Watch: EURUSD, EURGDP, USDJPY levelsTradingFloor
An update on the 20-day return histories for EURUSD, EURGBP, and USDJPY reminds that USDJPY's powerful rally has minimal precedent. EURUSD and EURGBP, by contrast, look considerably closer to neutral in terms of estimating the next big moves.

Market Preview: Focus on EU PPI and Sentix investor confidenceTradingFloor
European markets are expected to open lower Monday. Markets await Eurozone producer price index and sentix investor confidence data due later today.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Liquidity requirements in Basel III have been loosened and delayed. The S&P500 ended Friday’s session at a five-year high. Thin calendar today.

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
USA:n työllisyysluvut odotettuakin vahvempia * Saksan vähittäiskaupan myynti odotettua vankempi * EKP:n kokous viikon kohokohta

Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)


Analysis: Doom scenario far-fetched but euro gloom to deepenReuters
It would be fair to say that U.S. hedge-fund manager Kyle Bass does not expect the explosion in global debt in recent years to turn out well.

Question #10 for 2013: Europe and the EuroCalculated Risk
My guess is the eurozone makes it through another year without losing any countries or a serious collapse. Obviously several countries are near the edge, and the key will be to return to expansion soon.

Interpreting Target2 Balances; German Banks are Pulling Out of EuropeHistorySquared

Analysis: Fiscal crisis seen hurting tech earningsReuters
Warning to investors: major U.S. technology companies could miss estimates for fourth-quarter earnings as "fiscal cliff" worries likely led some corporate clients to tighten their belts last month and refrain from spending all of their 2012 IT budgets.

Question #9 for 2013: How much will Residential Investment increase?Calculated Risk
I expect growth for new home sales and housing starts in the 20% to 25% range in 2013 compared to 2012. That would still make 2013 the sixth weakest year on record for housing starts (behind 2008 through 2012), and the seventh or eight weakest for new home sales.

The next stage of the ‘fiscal cliff’ fight has officially begunWonkblog / WP

Entering Into 2013 - Part 2The Short Side of The Long
Why I do not want to be anywhere near equities right now.

Labor Force Participation Rate UpdateCalculated Risk

Employment Demographics by Age Group: Spotlight on Age 25-54Mish’s

2013 Non-Prediction No.1Macro Man
Japan will NOT escape deflation this year, but reflation trades will NOT disappoint.

Abenomics: Japan's ThermidorMarc to Market

Bernanke Strikes First Yen Blow as Yield Gap Rises: Japan CreditBB
While Prime Minister Shinzo Abe piled pressure on the Bank of Japan (8301) to weaken the yen last week, the Federal Reserve struck the first blow against the currency.

Destined To Fail: China’s Soft Power PushThe Diplomat
Beijing is expanding efforts to enhance its soft power. Events at home illustrate why such moves are headed for trouble.

Regulators ease key bank rule to spur creditReuters
Global regulators gave banks four more years and greater flexibility on Sunday to build up cash buffers so they can use some of their reserves to help struggling economies grow.

Is This The Future Of World "Growth"?ZH

Kysely: Eurokriisin pahin vaihe ei ole vielä ohiYLE
Puolet suomalaisista ei antaisi kriisimaille lisää tukea. Kaksi kolmesta suomalaisesta ei usko, että pahinta vaihetta olisi vielä nähty.

Joka toinen talikko törröttäisi keskenäänHenri Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro

Visio tekisi Suomelle terääHS
Tulevaisuustutkija Risto Linturin vallankumouksellisia ajatuksia: autokuskit pitää korvata roboteilla ja Suomen on palattava henkisesti 1990-luvulle.

Suomi vajoaa Espanjan kastiinTalouden Tulkki