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Monday, January 14

14th Jan - US Open: Paused markets (Antti, haista paska)


Quote of the Day (Haista Antti paska):
Koneen hallituksen puheenjohtaja Antti Herlin sanoo viime perjantaina ilmestyneessä Talouselämässä, että olisi helppo olla jälkiviisas ja arvostella Suomen suuresta riskinotosta osallistuessaan euron pelastusoperaatioihin.

”Tämä olisi aika lailla turhaa.Tässä sitä ollaan ja nyt pitäisi pitää huolta siitä, että Euroopan asiat saadaan järjestykseen”, Herlin sanoo.

Haistakoon Antti pitkän paskan. Aivan mieletöntä liiketoiminnan subventiota Suomen veronmaksajien piikkiin, ettei vaan vahingossakaan asema Forbesin tuhannen rikkaimman joukossa vaarantuisi, ja nyt selitetään, että voivoi jälkiviisaus.


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Roundups & Commentary
Frontrunning – ZH

Overnight: Market Bubbly Following Newsless Weekend – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: ‘Great Rotation’ In the Making? – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Six Considerations Shaping the Capital Markets – Marc to Market

EUROPE
  CRISIS OVER?
Mario Draghi has saved the rich, now he must save the poorThe Telegraph
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: The ECB has washed its hands of any further responsibility for the 27m people across the eurozone listed as unemployed or classified as discouraged workers.

Draghi getting ahead of himself: are we really seeing a “normal situation” in eurozone financial markets?Open Europe

Euro Leaders Declaring Worst Is Over Turn to Economy WoesBB

Now is the time for a new fundamental law of the European Union europp / LSE
Andrew Duff MEP argues that without revision of the EU’s treaties to create a fiscal union, the EU’s very survival is now in jeopardy. He advocates the merging of the two EU treaties into one Fundamental Law of the EU, and the creation of a federal economic government for the fiscal union.

  BANKS
EU draft bank rescue plan says countries must share burden: FT Reuters
Struggling euro zone countries seeking future aid from the region's rescue fund to prevent their banks collapsing will have to share the cost burden, according to a draft euro zone proposal seen by the Financial Times.

About that sovereign-bank link we said we’d break…alphaville / FT
So it looks like the EU maybe won’t be breaking the sovereign/bank doom-loop after all!

  UK
The Financial Policy Committee’s mighty powersalphaville / FT
Fresh from the Bank of England — it’s a draft Policy Statement explaining the planned powers for the Financial Policy Committee to give directions setting extra capital requirements for the purposes of financial stability.

Britain's Cameron plays down prospect of in-out EU referendumReuters
British Prime Minister David Cameron on Monday played down the prospect of a near-term referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union, ahead of a long-awaited speech on the issue he is expected to deliver next week.

Osborne's "reform or bust" remarks only get a page 10 hit in Die WeltOpen Europe
"I very much hope that Britain remains a member of the EU. But in order that we can remain in the European Union, the EU must change."

  MACRO NUMBERS
Euro zone factory output falls, may have hit bottom – Reuters
Italian November Industrial Production Falls More Than Forecast – BB
Euro-Area Industrial Output Unexpectedly Declined in Nov. – BB

UNITED STATES
Deminted: The platinum coin option is no longer an optionFree exchange / The Economist

Big tests for stocksHumble Student
My inner investor is very nervous about this stock market. My inner trader is a little bit more sanguine and believes that there could be a bit more upside that he may be able to catch. However, he is tightening up his stops to limit his losses and keeping an eye on the exit.

The off-loading of short-term USTsalphaville / FT
Total Treasury market positioning was shortened significantly in the latest week, with total Treasury longs hitting the shortest levels in over 8 months.

ASIA
China’s non-conforming GDP growthalphaville / FT
China’s Q4 GDP is due out this Friday. Huzzah! If you’re wondering how seriously to take it… wonder no more.

Ambushing the yen, China stylealphaville / FT
Just as the Japanese look to be finally weakening their stubborn yen and spur some inflation in a stagnant economy, there is a suggestion, just a suggestion mind, that a deliberate plan to scupper, or at least hinder, that plan might be afoot.

OTHER
Morning Briefing (EU/US): The Darker Side Of "Currency Wars"BNY Mellon
Thinking a little further about Chinese attitudes towards the JPY.

FX Comment: ECB from Mars, Fed from VenusNordea
Fed talk is one of this week's highlights - will they get the USD sink more?

Financial forecasts – New Year is over, but the party is notNordea (pdf)
or read the summary

IN FINNISH
Pelastammeko seuraavaksi rahanpesijöitä?Jan Hurri / US Puheenvuoro
Kypros on pieni ja pinteessä – ja europäättäjien poliittinen painajainen. Saarivaltio anoi hätärahaa jo viime kesänä mutta ei ole vielä saanut rahaa tai vastausta. Kypros on vaarassa "kaatua" ja jopa ajautua ulos eurosta, mutta "pelastustoimia" viivyttää epäily tukimiljardien päätymisestä rahanpesijöille.

Pankkikriisimaille kaavaillaan kahta vaihtoehtoaTalSa
Euromaat voivat joutua jatkossakin kantamaan itse suuren osan pankkiensa vaikeuksista, jos julkisuuteen vuotanut valtiovarainministerien suunnitelma toteutuu. Asiasta kertoo brittilehti Financial Times.

Rikospaikkana EU – missä kunnossa uhri on?TalSa
Jos EU:n nykytilaa arvioisi rikospaikkatutkijoiden keinoilla ja tavoilla, analyysi olisi selvä. Konnuuksien, kriisitilanteiden ja oman nopean laajenemisensa takia uhriksi joutuneella unioniparalla on kolme vakavaa vammaa, jotka vaativat pikaista hoitoa.

Pääkirjoitus: Eteläranta palailee reaalimaailmaanIS
EK:n toimitusjohtaja Jyri Häkämies on viime päivinä puhunut monissa viestimissä palkkamaltin puolesta rajaten mahdolliset, mieluiten yrityskohtaiset palkankorotukset enintään tuottavuuden kasvun mukaisiksi.