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Monday, January 28

28th Jan - US Close


Jos EU toimii kansalaisten etujen mukaisesti, niin kansanäänestyksessä ei pitäisi olla mitään ongelmaa.

Jos taas kansanäänestystä vastustetaan vahvasti, se osoittaa, että kansanäänestystä pelätään, eli EU ei silloin toimi kansalaisten etujen mukaisesti. Sitä suuremmalla syyllä pitäisi silloin järjestää kansanäänestys, koska muutoinhan ei päästä kansalaisten haluamaan tilanteeseen!

EU-johtajat ovat jo pitkään pimittäneet informaatiota ja vaienneet ongelmista. Nyt kaikki ongelmat ovat kuitenkin lävähtäneet kansalaisten tietoisuuteen, eli informaation asymmetria on poistunut. Sen vuoksi kansalaiset ovat nyt valmiita tekemään uuden ratkaisun, koska heillä on kaikki ratkaisun tekemiseen tarvittava tieto.

Ei muuta kuin kansanäänestystä kehiin! Muuten emme elä demokratiassa!

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

Tomorrow’s Tape: Case-Shiller, Amazon Earnings, FOMC WSJ 
Morning Briefing (Asia): Markets Await Earnings, FOMC and Payrolls BNY Mellon
US: Stocks And Bonds Reconnect – ZH

Retrofitting an exit hatch to the euroqfinance
In an excellent paper pondering how an orderly exit from the euro could be achieved, CASS Business School's Rob Thomas starts from the premise that the euro's problems over the last three years have been caused as much by "the all too apparent failings of the eurozone's political elite as by economic fundamentals".

As The Euro Soars, This Is Where The "Max Pain" In Europe IsZH
Deutsche: When controlling for the pace of world demand and when looking at the Euro area as an aggregate, we are according to our estimates currently in or near the “danger zone” where the exchange rate is effectively undermining competitiveness.

The ECB: The Last Central Bank Standing?PIIE
In recent months, it has looked as if all the major nominally independent central banks in advanced economies are committed to, or seriously contemplating, intervention in the markets to lower the value of their currencies. Excluding commodity exporters like Canada, Australia, and Norway, everyone is on board—except the ECB.

A declining but distorted euro M3alphaville / FT
The picture was mixed, with a number of likely distortions confusing things, but on the whole it was probably a bit more positive than negative.

Cut and paste – your guide to ‘economic’ vs ‘regulatory’ liquidityalphaville / FT
Are you a bank agonising over whether to keep your triple A-rated covered bonds as part of your liquidity buffer or send them to the European Central Bank? Not sure what to do with your AA-rated non-financial euro corporate debt? Then you need this handy table from BofAML’s structured finance guru, Alexander Batchvarov.

Spain May End Short-Selling Ban as Crisis EasesReuters
Spain may end its ban on short-selling stocks and bonds this week as the euro zone crisis relents, although controls could stay for bank shares which speculators targeted heavily during last year's turmoil.

The Spanish Housing Market Is About To BottomZH
Why? Because once it hits 0 in a few months, it can't go any lower.

Italian Bank's Murky ScandalDealBook / NYT
It is still not clear whether the Bank of Italy, Deutsche Bank and Nomura could have been more vigorous in pursuing hints that things weren't quite right at Monte dei Paschi di Siena.

Icesaved?alphaville / FT

FOMC preview: Too early for the Fed to change biasDanske Bank (pdf)

First time in a while: 10 year Treasuries pierce 2 per centalphaville / FT

The return of the bubble?Free exchange / The Economist
American housing markets are at long last recovering from the epic bust that began in 2006. Sales, prices, and construction all seem to have reached a cyclical bottom. Some analysts reckon that a new boom and, possibly, bubble could be inflating, born of tight supply and low interest rates.

S&P 500 At New All-Time Highs*Bespoke

Earnings and Revenue Beat Rates for Q4 2012Bespoke

Gauge of business spending plans edges higher – Reuters
Goods Orders Exceed Forecast in Sign of U.S. Factory Rebound – BB
Dec Core Orders Plunge 4.3% Y/Y As Durables Headline Boosted By Boeing Orders – ZH
A Surprisingly Strong December Gain – The Capital Spectator
Smash Expectations, But Core Goods Plunge – dshort
Confirm Strong PMI Readings in USAPragCap
Core CAPEX as a Recession Indicator – dshort
Companies Ignored Cliff Chatter, but Taxes, Spending Cuts Will Have Real Bite – WSJ

Dallas Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Strengthens" in January – Calculated Risk
Dallas Fed Reports Expanding Texas-Area Manufacturing – WSJ

Japanese OutlookHistorySquared
Weaker currency, strong nominal equity prices; as debt crisis looms

East versus West - two states of mindTradingFloor
Steen Jakobsen: In Europe, we have crisis tunnel vision, while the big Asian economies face a critical transition period. Meanwhile, the small, illiquid economies are the frontier offering the most opportunity - and risk.

Policymaker's Guide To Playing The Global Currency WarsZH
Steven Englander, Citi: “Do you only know how to play? Or can you shoot as well?”

FOMC week again againTradingFloor
John J. Hardy: Is this the week we see the pivot lower in both USDJPY and EURUSD? It’s up to FOMC’s Wednesday policy statement and developments in Europe this week to decide.

Bye, bye RoRoalphaville / FT
JP Morgan: Correlations across dollar pairs are collapsing to their lowest level in five years (chart 1), which is statistical jargon for currency moves having little to do with global issues and almost everything to do with local ones.

Great Graphic: Central Bank Balance Sheet ChangesMarc to Market

The Explanatory Power of Interest Rate DevelopmentsMarc to Market
The euro has risen almost 2% against the US dollar thus far this year, while the yen has fallen about 4.5% against the greenback.  Beneath this divergence may be a common consideration:  Interest rate developments. 

The point of low returnButtonwood / The Economist
The outlook for expected returns is as low as it has been in more than a century, with real US returns likely to be 2.3% a year.

Shipping Essentials WeeklyNordea (pdf)

Koska on rakennemuutoksen aika?Hannu Visti

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