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MARKETS
FX Forecast Update – Danske
Bank
Dovish Scandinavian
central banks hit SEK and NOK
Global Industry Starts to Sputter – WSJ
Industry
data for that month has been almost universally awful, and especially so in Europe.
So perhaps it’s no coincidence that equity markets have taken a knock during
recent sessions.
In Search of the Perfect Portfolio – A Wealth of
Common Sense
How Not to Beat the Market: Ritholtz Chart – BB
Welcome to the Everything Boom, or Maybe the
Everything Bubble –
NYT
How Building a Startup and Building A Trading
Operation Are Similar
– Points
and Figures
Four Charts That Signal EUR Has Further To Drop – ZH
The
Momentum Curve: Expanding the Search for Market Profits – TraderFeed
Cynk
Makes the Case for Buying Friends, Naked Short Selling – BB
Shine
On, You Crazy Diamond
– Epicurean
Dealmaker
Complacency? Don't worry, be happy! – Humble
Student
The end may
be getting close, but it's not here yet. There is one more leg up. So don't
worry, be happy!
Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Ray Dalio Is
Back, All Weather Fund Up 11% - Forbes
Five Ways to Fail at Trading – Adam Grimes
SAXO
BANK: INSIGHTS 2014 Q3
On the edge – TradingFloor
Unless
something is done urgently to correct our dangerously imbalanced system that
favours a privileged minority, we’re in a mighty jam indeed.
Commodity Outlook: Boiling Point – TradingFloor
Conflict in
Iraq is casting an ominous shadow over global oil supply. If the march of Sunni
militants can’t be halted, an elevated oil price is inevitable heading towards
2015.
FX Outlook: Storm brewing – TradingFloor
The sense
of crisis in energy markets on the back of the conflict in Iraq and the
continued tension in Ukraine is yet to really spill over into forex markets. If
it does, expect a tough time for currencies at the mercy of wild swings in
energy prices.
Equities Outlook: Solar future – TradingFloor
Equities
are still the best place to be but it’s a decidedly mixed bag. Old-school
integrated oil companies have underperformed and face headwinds in the form of
ebbing demand and the arrival of shale gas. But the alternatives are worth a look,
particularly solar power, where a very sunny future awaits.
ECONOMICS
Culture of effort and US-EU labour market
divergences – VoxEU.org
Differences
in labour market and firm statistics between the US and Europe are easy to
dismiss as cultural. This column applies an equilibrium model of worker
screening and effort to cross-country data, showing that a large chunk of
observed differences can be explained by the strategic interaction between firm
and worker strategies. Evidence suggests that the US is in a high-screening,
high-effort equilibrium, while southern Europe is in the complementary
equilibrium. Perhaps culture is more economic than we might assume.
Mutual assistance between Federal Reserve
Banks, 1913-1960 as prolegomena to the TARGET2 debate – ECB
European
Central Bank Working papers by Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud Mehl, Livia Chiţu and
Gary Richardson
What Enabled Bretton Woods? – Project
Syndicate
The Bretton
Woods conference created a global monetary framework that served as a
cornerstone of a peaceful global political order for at least 30 years. What
was the key to its effectiveness, and how can its success be replicated to
create a new international monetary system?
Inflation is always and everywhere a political
phenomenon – Pieria
Macro Outlook: Power conundrum – TradingFloor
As US
consumers open their wallets and their EU counterparts shrug off the blues, the
case for a continued global economic recovery remains intact. But looming
dangers — including the Iraq imbroglio and rising oil prices — could temper the
pace of the upturn.
You Go First – Epicurean
Dealmaker
Chart of the week: The great transformation – Bruegel
Emerging
and developing market economies have passed advanced economies in share of
world GDP since 2001
Who Wants a Depression? – Krugman
/ NYT
Inflation Targeting: A Monetary Policy Regime
Whose Time Has Come and Gone – Mercatus
David
Beckworth: It is a monetary regime that has a hard time dealing with large
supply shocks, and its arrival occurred during a period when they were small.
Since this time, supply shocks have become larger, and inflation targeting has
struggled to cope with them. Moreover, the recent crisis suggests it has also
has a tough time dealing with large demand shocks, and it may even contribute
to financial instability. Inflation targeting, therefore, is not a robust
monetary-policy regime, and it needs to be replaced.
A Class of Its Own – Project
Syndicate
If today's
super-rich believe that they no longer need to rely on their national
governments, they are making a huge mistake. The reality is that the stability
and openness of the markets that produce their wealth have never depended more
on government action.
OFF-TOPIC
Explore
history through the lens of the Journal.
Michael Lewis: Deeb the Conquerer Bares His
Soul Before Mama – BB
Worries
About Russian Moles in Berlin
The
Latest Snowden Leak Is Devastating to NSA Defenders – The
Atlantic
The agency
collected and stored intimate chats, photos, and emails belonging to innocent
Americans—and secured them so poorly that reporters can now browse them at
will.
Secrets
of the Creative Brain
– The
Atlantic
A leading
neuroscientist who has spent decades studying creativity shares her research on
where genius comes from, whether it is dependent on high IQ—and why it is so
often accompanied by mental illness.
The
Oculus Rift Game That’s So Real It Nearly Destroyed Me – Wired
LG G
Watch: Worn Out – Wired
The AI
Startup Google Should Probably Snatch Up Fast – Wired
A Videogame
About Not Eating Your Ship’s Crew Unless You Need To – Wired
http://www.wired.com/2014/07/sunless-sea-impressions/
Jim
Simons - Seeker, Doer, Giver, Ponderer – NYT
A
Billionaire Mathematician’s Life of Ferocious Curiosity
FINNISH
"EU:n
velkasääntöjä ei pidä rikkoa" – Verkkouutiset
Kansantaloustieteen professorin mukaan Euroopan unionin
velkasääntöjen uudelleen määrittely johtaa kiusaukseen määritellä muitakin
asioita uudelleen.
Verotuksen kohteet
tulevaisuudessa – minkä verottaminen yleensäkään onnistuu – Tyhmyri
Kansanvallan
halveksuntaa europarlamentissa – Sampo
Terho
Nimitysfarssi: EU-kriittiset suhmurointiin ulos – PS
EU:n johtopaikoista nousi meteli – IL
Teollisuustuotanto -3,1% toukok. Y-o-Y – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden
uudet tilaukset +1,4% toukok. Y-oY – Tilastokeskus
Julkisyhteisöjen
alijäämä kasvoi hiukan tammi-maaliskuussa – Tilastokeskus
Bruttokansantuote
supistui 1,2 prosenttia viime vuonna – Tilastokeskus
Bruttokansantuote
-0,4% ensimmäisellä neljänneksellä – Tilastokeskus
Palkkasumma
kasvoi maalis-toukok. 0,2% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Rakennusyritysten
liikevaihto kasvoi helmi-huhtik. 3,1% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Suomeen
tuotiin pääomaa alkuvuodesta 2014, vaihtotase edelleen alijäämäinen – Tilastokeskus
Verokertymä
kasvoi 3,9 prosenttia vuonna 2013 – Tilastokeskus
Yritysten
voittoaste supistui vuoden 2014 ensimmäisellä neljänneksellä – Tilastokeskus