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Sunday, July 13

13th Jul - W/E: Markets, Economics, Off-Topic, Finnish

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FX Forecast UpdateDanske Bank
Dovish Scandinavian central banks hit SEK and NOK

Global Industry Starts to SputterWSJ
Industry data for that month has been almost universally awful, and especially so in Europe. So perhaps it’s no coincidence that equity markets have taken a knock during recent sessions.

In Search of the Perfect PortfolioA Wealth of Common Sense

How Not to Beat the Market: Ritholtz ChartBB

Welcome to the Everything Boom, or Maybe the Everything BubbleNYT

How Building a Startup and Building A Trading Operation Are SimilarPoints and Figures

Four Charts That Signal EUR Has Further To DropZH

The Momentum Curve: Expanding the Search for Market ProfitsTraderFeed

Cynk Makes the Case for Buying Friends, Naked Short SellingBB
Shine On, You Crazy DiamondEpicurean Dealmaker

Complacency? Don't worry, be happy!Humble Student
The end may be getting close, but it's not here yet. There is one more leg up. So don't worry, be happy!

Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Ray Dalio Is Back, All Weather Fund Up 11% - Forbes

Five Ways to Fail at TradingAdam Grimes

On the edgeTradingFloor
Unless something is done urgently to correct our dangerously imbalanced system that favours a privileged minority, we’re in a mighty jam indeed.

Commodity Outlook: Boiling PointTradingFloor
Conflict in Iraq is casting an ominous shadow over global oil supply. If the march of Sunni militants can’t be halted, an elevated oil price is inevitable heading towards 2015.

FX Outlook: Storm brewingTradingFloor
The sense of crisis in energy markets on the back of the conflict in Iraq and the continued tension in Ukraine is yet to really spill over into forex markets. If it does, expect a tough time for currencies at the mercy of wild swings in energy prices.

Equities Outlook: Solar futureTradingFloor
Equities are still the best place to be but it’s a decidedly mixed bag. Old-school integrated oil companies have underperformed and face headwinds in the form of ebbing demand and the arrival of shale gas. But the alternatives are worth a look, particularly solar power, where a very sunny future awaits.

Culture of effort and US-EU labour market
Differences in labour market and firm statistics between the US and Europe are easy to dismiss as cultural. This column applies an equilibrium model of worker screening and effort to cross-country data, showing that a large chunk of observed differences can be explained by the strategic interaction between firm and worker strategies. Evidence suggests that the US is in a high-screening, high-effort equilibrium, while southern Europe is in the complementary equilibrium. Perhaps culture is more economic than we might assume.

Mutual assistance between Federal Reserve Banks, 1913-1960 as prolegomena to the TARGET2 debateECB
European Central Bank Working papers by Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud Mehl, Livia Chiţu and Gary Richardson

What Enabled Bretton Woods?Project Syndicate
The Bretton Woods conference created a global monetary framework that served as a cornerstone of a peaceful global political order for at least 30 years. What was the key to its effectiveness, and how can its success be replicated to create a new international monetary system?

Inflation is always and everywhere a political phenomenonPieria

Macro Outlook: Power conundrumTradingFloor
As US consumers open their wallets and their EU counterparts shrug off the blues, the case for a continued global economic recovery remains intact. But looming dangers — including the Iraq imbroglio and rising oil prices — could temper the pace of the upturn.

You Go FirstEpicurean Dealmaker

Chart of the week: The great transformationBruegel
Emerging and developing market economies have passed advanced economies in share of world GDP since 2001

Who Wants a Depression?Krugman / NYT

Inflation Targeting: A Monetary Policy Regime Whose Time Has Come and GoneMercatus
David Beckworth: It is a monetary regime that has a hard time dealing with large supply shocks, and its arrival occurred during a period when they were small. Since this time, supply shocks have become larger, and inflation targeting has struggled to cope with them. Moreover, the recent crisis suggests it has also has a tough time dealing with large demand shocks, and it may even contribute to financial instability. Inflation targeting, therefore, is not a robust monetary-policy regime, and it needs to be replaced.

A Class of Its OwnProject Syndicate
If today's super-rich believe that they no longer need to rely on their national governments, they are making a huge mistake. The reality is that the stability and openness of the markets that produce their wealth have never depended more on government action.

The WSJ 125 ArchiveWSJ
Explore history through the lens of the Journal.

Michael Lewis: Deeb the Conquerer Bares His Soul Before MamaBB

One Big Reason The CIA Spied on GermanyDaily Beast
Worries About Russian Moles in Berlin

Behold Manhattanhenge: New York City's Most Awe-Inspiring PhenomenonYahoo

The Latest Snowden Leak Is Devastating to NSA DefendersThe Atlantic
The agency collected and stored intimate chats, photos, and emails belonging to innocent Americans—and secured them so poorly that reporters can now browse them at will.

Secrets of the Creative BrainThe Atlantic
A leading neuroscientist who has spent decades studying creativity shares her research on where genius comes from, whether it is dependent on high IQ—and why it is so often accompanied by mental illness.

The Oculus Rift Game That’s So Real It Nearly Destroyed MeWired

LG G Watch: Worn OutWired

The AI Startup Google Should Probably Snatch Up FastWired

A Videogame About Not Eating Your Ship’s Crew Unless You Need ToWired

Jim Simons - Seeker, Doer, Giver, PondererNYT
A Billionaire Mathematician’s Life of Ferocious Curiosity

The secretive billionaire who built Silicon ValleyFortune

"EU:n velkasääntöjä ei pidä rikkoa" Verkkouutiset
Kansantaloustieteen professorin mukaan Euroopan unionin velkasääntöjen uudelleen määrittely johtaa kiusaukseen määritellä muitakin asioita uudelleen.

Verotuksen kohteet tulevaisuudessa – minkä verottaminen yleensäkään onnistuuTyhmyri

Kansanvallan halveksuntaa europarlamentissa – Sampo Terho
Nimitysfarssi: EU-kriittiset suhmurointiin ulos – PS
EU:n johtopaikoista nousi meteli – IL

Teollisuustuotanto -3,1% toukok. Y-o-Y – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden uudet tilaukset +1,4% toukok. Y-oY – Tilastokeskus
Julkisyhteisöjen alijäämä kasvoi hiukan tammi-maaliskuussa – Tilastokeskus
Bruttokansantuote supistui 1,2 prosenttia viime vuonna – Tilastokeskus
Bruttokansantuote -0,4% ensimmäisellä neljänneksellä – Tilastokeskus
Palkkasumma kasvoi maalis-toukok. 0,2% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Rakennusyritysten liikevaihto kasvoi helmi-huhtik. 3,1% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Suomeen tuotiin pääomaa alkuvuodesta 2014, vaihtotase edelleen alijäämäinen – Tilastokeskus
Verokertymä kasvoi 3,9 prosenttia vuonna 2013 – Tilastokeskus
Yritysten voittoaste supistui vuoden 2014 ensimmäisellä neljänneksellä – Tilastokeskus