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Monday, July 28

28th Jul - Waiting for US events

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Core problemFT
Eurozone’s centre needs a three-arrow strategy

The need for investment-led recovery for EuropeFT
The European Council of Heads of Government firmly asserted that the Union needs to take bold steps to increase investments and create jobs. They called for immediate mobilization of the right mix of private and public funding.

European central bankers are obsessing about everything else than monetary policyThe Market Monetarist

Standard Eurobarometer survey resultsEuropean Commission

Spanish Bond Yields Tumble Below 2.5% - Lowest In HistoryZH

Russian sanctions: leaked “phase three” legislation – FT
Twitter quickly debunks latest Russian effort to blame Ukraine for MH17 – Vox

Article IV Consultation--Staff Report, Press Release and Statement – IMF
United Kingdom: Selected Issues – IMF
IMF Video: IMF 2014 Review of the UK Economy – IMF
Executive Board Concludes 2014 Article IV Consultation – IMF
IMF Says BOE May Need to Drain Reserves as it Lifts Rates – WSJ
"Overvalued" Pound Prevents Rebalancing – FT
Housing Bubble May Pop Entire U.K. Economy – BB

The US Phillips curveSober Look

FOMC Preview: More Tapering Calculated Risk

3 reasons Yellen's FOMC remains dovishSober Look
Tighter fiscal policy, relatively tight credit in the mortgage market, low household wage growth expectations.

The Fed’s five (not so) easy steps back to normalWaPo

Torturing CPI Data until They ConfessFED
Is the Fed finally beginning to see the problems with IT?The Money Illusion

BOJ Beat: Exports Likely a Hot Topic at Coming Policy MeetingWSJ
Bank of Japan officials are becoming less confident in their outlook on exports after having erred on the side of optimism for more than a year, setting the stage for fresh debate at their policy meeting next week.

Daily Central Banks WSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Time To Take Measure of Fuzzy U.S. Growth Accounting * Fed’s Rate Debate Looks Set to Heat Up * IMF Lays Out Own Fed Exit Strategy * Fed Approves Zions Capital Plan After Resubmission * ECB Paper Identifies Most Growth-Friendly Cuts

Daily MacroWSJ
We enter a week of key U.S. economic data with global investors in a mostly upbeat mood and ignoring an upsetting failure to secure peace between Israel and Gaza-based Hamas. They have been buoyed by signs of strong profit growth–in Asia, by news of a surge in profits for China’s mostly state-owned large industrial firms, and in Europe by better-than-expected private sector earnings growth. But the clues to how much further markets can gain could lie in a series of key data releases due out this week: second-quarter U.S. GDP on Wednesday, after which we get a new meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee that same day, followed by a slew of July manufacturing purchasing manager indexes from around  Thursday and Friday and the big one, Friday’s July U.S. payrolls report.

Earnings Recovery? Europe Would Love Some Of ThatZH
[GS, UBS]: European 2014 EPS forecasts are now the lowest they have been for the entire year, and are down 8% from where they were at the beginning of the year!

Great Graphic: Spot the Secular StagnationMarc to Market

Four trade suggestions from the BoAML Fund Manager SurveyHumble Student

3Q 2013 Guide to the MarketsJPM

The Most Important Charts In The WorldBI

A few thoughts on volatilityMacro Man

FX Update: will the US dollar achieve lift-off this week?TradingFloor

While you were busy ...Nordea
If you are just back from holiday, here are a few bullets on what happened while you were busy …

It is Mostly about the US in the Week AheadMarc to Market

Rahoitus ei ole niukka resurssiValtteri Aaltonen / US

Mihin maailmantalous on menossa?Roger Wessman

Osakeasuntojen hinnat pysyivät lähes ennallaan kesäkuussa – Tilastokeskus
Nyt asuntohinnat laskivat myös pääkaupunkiseudulla – Verkkouutiset

Luottamusindikaattorit heinäkuu 2014 – EK
Vähittäiskaupan luottamus vajosi syvälle – Verkkouutiset
Kuluttajien usko Suomen talouteen koheni hieman heinäkuussa – Tilastokeskus
Tulevaisuus nähdään synkkänä, vaikka luottamus talouteen kohentunut – Verkkouutiset