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Sunday, July 6

6th Jul - W/E: Linkfest

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Lessons from history for the Eurozone Crisisvoxeu
The European Monetary Union is unprecedented, but the Eurozone Crisis is not. This column draws upon the experiences of previous banking crises, and compares the Eurozone Crisis countries. Like Japan before the 1992 crisis, Spain and Ireland had property bubbles fuelled by domestic credit. The Greek crisis is very distinct from crises in other Eurozone countries, so a one-size-fits-all policy would be inappropriate. The duration and severity of past crises suggest the road ahead will continue to be very rough.

Erste Predict Record Loss as Romania Adds to Hungary WoesBB
Erste Group Bank AG (EBS), the Austrian bank earning most of its income in eastern Europe, plunged as a bad-debt clean-up forced by Romanian regulators and fee refunds in Hungary will cause a record loss this year.

More Money Please A New Plan to Boost Europe's Straggling InvestmentsSpiegel
The euro crisis may have eased recently, but companies and countries in the common currency zone still aren't investing enough to fuel growth. The best solution, a Berlin economics institute argues, is to establish an EU-wide investment fund

Brussels round upEuropp / LSE
EU unemployment figures, crisis in Iraq, and who should be the next President of the European Council?

Slavoj Žižek: There’s a ‘feigned naivety’ towards the euroscepticsvoxeurop

Taylor rules: the ZLB and Euro Diversity - mainly macro

Why leaning against the wind is the wrong monetary policy for
Swedish Sadomonetarist SetbackKrugman / NYT
SEK FI Strategy - Reality checkNordea
In this analysis we navigate through the new Riksbank forecast and look at the resulting fair values in SEK front-end fixed income instruments...

The Clinton Money MachineWSJ
Those deep ties potentially give Mrs. Clinton a financial advantage in the 2016 presidential election, if she runs, and could bring industry donors back to the Democratic Party for the first time since Mr. Clinton left the White House.

Some thoughts on slowing house price appreciation in the USSober Look

JPM Cuts Its Original 2014 GDP Forecast In Half, Sees Slowest Growth Since 2009ZH

Abe’s Long MarchProject Syndicate
Ian Buruma: Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s coalition government has decided to “reinterpret” the postwar Japanese constitution. The new interpretation would allow Japan to use military force in support of an ally if Japanese security is under threat – a decision directed squarely at China.

The Bank of Japan's QE program diverges sharply from other central banksSober Look

Stimulus: Beijing is about to blinkTradingFloor
Economic tinkering not delivering hoped-for recovery * Spectre of widespread insolvency through triangular debt looming on horizon * Move to aggressively lower cost of borrowing, boost credit supply imminent

The "Miracle" Of China's PMI Resurrection In 1 Uncomfortable ChartZH
China coal prices just hit a record low hardly supports the smog-choking industry of China being at 7-month highs... Hard data vs soft surveys? You decide.

Camp Alphaville trip notesTradingFloor
John's observations from Camp Alphaville fall into four broad categories: China, Energy, central banks and FX. Please scroll through this page to locate your particular field of interest.

Are Markets Underestimating Rate Hike Risks?WSJ

No Fireworks in Markets as Investors Digest ECB, US Jobs Data and RiksbankMarc to Market

From here to eternity in the age of low interest ratesTradingFloor
A dangerous predilection towards economic modelling based on permanently low interest rates is beginning to dominate consensus thinking. For those of us who have vivid memories of former crises such as 1987 and 1992, this illusion will over time exacerbate systemic risk.

Part 2: What Factors Drive the Performance of Momentum Strategies?CSS Analytics

The Most Powerful Person In Finance At Every AgeBI

Does the size effect exist? Probably.Alpha Architect

How to Win By Doing LessFool
You might think successful investors are brilliant minds who can calculate complicated things with precision. They rarely are. The best are more like baseball players, able to solve complicated problems by using simple rules of thumb.

What’s a hedge fund manager to do?The Reformed Broker

Why Pick on BNP Paribas?Project Syndicate
To many Europeans, the $8.9 billion fine imposed by the US on the French financial-services company BNP Paribas for violating American sanctions against Cuba, Iran, and Sudan seems excessive. Three factors explain, if not justify, the size of the penalty.
The way for regulators to hit a bank where it hurts: a ban from marketsWaPo
The fine and the criminal charges are nothing to sneeze at, but the management shake out and dollar-clearing suspension arguably accomplished what some say is a rare feat in financial justice: a punishment proportional to the crime.

Global Macro In 1 Simple ChartZH
The US and UK are the 'best' performing world economies based on PMIs. Despite slumping real incomes, surging gas prices, a dismal Q1, fading Q2 growth expectations, and the US being the worst relative performing macro-surprise index in the world this year, it is the cleanest clean shirt with the great expansion based on soft-survey data. France joins Korea at the bottom of the global pile of macro-economic performers with Russia, Brazil, Australia, and Greece also in contraction.

Don’t Cry for Them: The World’s Biggest Sovereign Defaults Since 2000WSJ

Austrian Economists, 9/11 Truthers and Brain WormsBB

Macro debatesJohn Cochrane
Macro Debates and the Relevance of Intellectual HistoryKrugman / NYT
Cochrane's thoughts on the recession and recoveryNoahpinion

The financial instability argument for raising ratesmainly macro
Stability or Sadomonetarism?Krugman / NYT
Neomonetarist DelusionsKrugman / NYT

As difficult as ABC: Austrians, the BIS and creditThe Economist
In the run-up to the financial crisis, some of the most prescient warnings came from Bill White, the economist at the Bank for International Settlements. The BIS is sounding the alarm bells today, and once again its message is unwelcome.

On the BIS annual report, monetary policy and the hazards of overindebtednessCredit Writedowns

Taking Systemic Risk SeriouslyProject Syndicate
There are two leading views about the world’s financial system. The first, heard mostly from executives at leading global banks and their allies, is that the system is safer than it has ever been… By contrast, a growing group of current and former officials continues to express concern about current and potential future risks in the United States, Europe, and globally.

The Bretton Woods agreements: The 70-year itchThe Economist
Both the West and China are neglecting the institutions that help keep the world economy upright

Bretton WoodsThe Economist
On July 22nd 1944, finance experts who had spent the past three weeks gathered at a hotel in New Hampshire, produced two documents setting out their plan for the post-war monetary system. In response, The Economist published this leader article on July 29th, paying particular attention to whether the British government should ratify the Bretton Woods Agreements.

The global monetary system: Not floating, but flailingThe Economist
After 150 years of monetary experimentation, the world remains unsure how to organise global finance

Buttonwood: Three’s a crowdThe Economist
The instability that stems from trilemmas

Monetary policy with quantitative
The Global Crisis has raised the interest of banks in using quantitative controls, such as credit controls. This column discusses a relatively recent historical episode of credit controls in France. During this episode the role of interest rates was almost eliminated. Quantitative controls effectively decreased output and prices in the short-run. The difficulty for the Central Bank stemmed from the fact that it had to change its instruments constantly. This historical episode demonstrates that macroprudential tools can have substantial effects on monetary policy.

Twilight of the Pizza BaronsBusinessweek
Tom Monaghan started Domino’s. Mike Ilitch started Little Caesers. Both became billionaires, both live in Detroit, both are now over 75. They’ve made very different decisions about how to spend their fortunes.

How the 'PayPal Mafia' redefined success in Silicon ValleyTech Republic
PayPal sold to eBay in the summer of 2002 and the PayPal team members went on to found some of the most important startups -- and make some of the most strategic investments -- of all time.

The Battle for Iran, 1953The National Security Archive
Re-Release of CIA Internal History Spotlights New Details about anti-Mosaddeq Coup * U.S. Ambassador Loy Henderson and Some CIA Officials Initially Disagreed with Certain Premises of Coup Planners * Declassified History Implies British Ties to the Operation, Criticizes London's Policies in Period Leading up to the Overthrow          

Spy agencies fear export of jihadi terrorFT
Islamist groups in the Mid-East are sharing bomb-making knowhow

Facebook's Social ExperimentWSJ
Few of Facebook’s 1.3 billion users know much about the social network’s Data Science team, but that has changed after reports have come out about a psychological study conducted on nearly 700,000 unwitting users.

Laundering Illegal Money? There's New York Real Estate For ThatZH
Stash PadNew York Magazine
The New York real-estate market is now the premier destination for wealthy foreigners with rubles, yuan, and dollars to hide.

10 Tricks to Appear Smart During MeetingsMedium

Beyond Belief: A Journey to AntarcticaAfar

The cold war relics three photographers are documenting before they disappearWired

Teosto verottaa tyhjiä DVD-levyjä pahemmin kuin valtio KoskenkorvaaAfterdawn