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Thursday, July 3

3rd Jul - ECB, Payrolls, you name it

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Germany and the future of the
German dominance has allowed the euro to achieve a number of design objectives, and this may continue if Germany does not shirk its responsibilities. Germany’s resilience and dominant size within the EU may explain its ‘muddling through’ approach to the Eurozone crisis. Greater mobility of labour and lower mobility of under-regulated capital may be the costly ‘second best’ adjustment until the arrival of more mature Eurozone institutions.

Renzi Tells Germany to Remember Budget-Busting Path to GrowthBB
Renzi rebutted criticism of his nation’s debt levels by pointing out Germany’s decision a decade ago to flout the EU’s stability and growth pact.

Renzi’s PromiseProject Syndicate
Fabrizio Tassinari: It is the government’s performance in the six-month EU presidency that matters most to Italy and to Europe.

New briefing: The next battle in Europe Open Europe
David Cameron needs to send forth the best he has

U.K. Housing Is Economy’s Biggest Threat, BOE SaysBB

BOE’s Cunliffe: Monetary Policy Last Line of Defense on Financial StabilityWSJ

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2014 Article IV Consultation - IMF
Selected Issues Country Report No. 14/183 – IMF
2014 Article IV Consultation Country Report No. 14/182 – IMF
IMF Survey: Policies On the Right Track – IMF

Repo rate cut by half a percentage point to 0.25 per cent – Riksbank
Riksbank Targets Deflation With Bigger-Than-Estimated Cut – BB
Economists React: Riksbank Rate Cut Catches Economists Off Guard – WSJ
Riksbanken moves close to the ZLB – Market Monetarist
Riksbank Returns to Crisis-Level Rates to Prevent Deflation – BB
Riksbank Risks Bubbles As It Duels The ECB – WSJ

Europe's bank stress tests were unreliable, EU auditors sayEuractiv
The European Union’s banking supervisor did not have the staff or powers to successfully stress-test EU banks’ resilience to financial shocks, according to a European Court of Auditors’ report published 2 July.

Garnry: 'Horrible' time for European banksTradingFloor
It's been a terrible week for BNP Paribas, hit by a record fine of almost USD nine billion after being found guilty of evading US sanctions on Iran, Sudan and other countries. The French bank also faces a one year ban on USD transactions. BNP Paribas is not the only European bank facing possible action from US prosecutors and the size of the fine sends a chilling warning to the entire European banking sector.

ECB’s Coeure Urges Regulatory Tools to Arrest Unwarranted Rise in Assest Values WSJ

ECB: talk but no action – Reuters
Five Questions for Mario Draghi as Plan Puzzles Investors – BB
ECB Watchers in the Dark Look to Draghi for Illumination – BB

Introductory statement to the press conference – ECB
ECB adjusts meeting schedule and to publish minutes – ECB
Further details on TLTRO – ECB

ECB Live: QE Or Not QE, That Is The Question – WSJ
Live blog: Mario Draghi’s monthly ECB press conference – FT
German Bonds Set for Longest Run of Declines in Month After ECB – BB
Policy is Unchanged, but Draghi is Transforming the ECB – Marc to Market
The ECB reduces number of meetings and provides TLTRO details – Danske Bank
Draghi Uses Lull to Revamp Meeting Schedule – WSJ
5 Takeaways From the ECB’s July Meeting – WSJ
TLTRO: how well has the ECB targeted its loans? – FT
Bundesbank Chief Supports ECB’s Bold Measures – WSJ
Draghi is Transforming ECB and it will Look more like the Fed – Marc to Market

Volume of retail trade stable in euro area – Eurostat
Euro zone retail sales stagnate in May – Reuters
Euroland: Weak euro-area retail sales but private consumption – Danske Bank

Euro-Area PMI Surveys Signal Growth Doubled in Second Quarter – BB
Euro zone business growth slows in June as French activity drops – Reuters
U.K. Services Employment Rises at Record Pace as Demand Jumps – BB
Ireland: PMIs hitting highs and budget deficit is dropping – Danske Bank

Transcript of Yellen and Lagarde Comments at IMF Event – WSJ
Yellen: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability – The Big Picture
Yellen Says Financial Instability Shouldn’t Prompt Rate Change – BB
Yellen drives wedge between monetary policy, financial bubbles – Reuters
Janet Yellen Signals She Won’t Raise Rates to Fight Bubbles – NYT
Optimal crises – The Economist
Yellen has long said there might be times when monetary policy could be used to counteract financial instability. But in a speech before the IMF today, she erected such a high bar to its use that is seems unlikely ever to happen: the "potential cost ... is likely to be too great ... at least most of the time." The unstated logical conclusion is that there is some optimal exposure to crisis.

Live Blog: Everything You Need to Know About the Jobs Report – WSJ
June Jobs Report – Reuters
Payrolls Jumped as U.S. Jobless Rate Fell to 6.1% in June – BB
June Employment Report: 288,000 Jobs, 6.1% Unemployment Rate – Calculated Risk
Payrolls Surge 288K, Above Expectations, Unemployment Tumbles To 6.1% - ZH
U.S. jobs data seen reinforcing strong growth outlook – Reuters
Strong job gains in June but wage growth remains subdued – Danske Bank
U.S. Employment Situation – June 2014 – Global Macro Monitor
Highlights from the June U.S. Jobs Report – WSJ
Economists React to Payrolls of 288K: “Early Fireworks” – WSJ
288K New Jobs, Unemployment Rate Drops to 6.1% - dshort
Digging Deeper Into the Report – dshort
Full-Time Jobs -500K, Part-Time Jobs +800K, Most Since 1993 – ZH
Economy adds 288k jobs, jobless rate falls to 6.1 percent – WaPo
Is this the jobs recovery we’ve been looking for? – WaPo
Comments on Employment Report – Calculated Risk
June Employment Report – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
Robust June Hiring Moves Forward Likely Fed Rate Hike, JPM Says – WSJ
Why Have Economists Been Wrong About Falling Unemployment Rates? – WSJ

Trade Gap in U.S. Shrinks More Than Forecast on Record Exports – BB
U.S. trade deficit narrows as exports hit record high – Reuters
ISM Services Weaker Than Expected – Bespoke

Aussie Dollar Tumbles As Stevens Says "Overvalued"; Claims "Not Jawboning"ZH
Australia rebalancing act to take time, A$ overvalued: RBAReuters

Japanese Real Wages Tumble Most Since LehmanZH

China, Japan, And Aussie Services PMIs Drop (but Markit/HSBC Baffles...)ZH

Daily Macro WSJ
The morning’s big news was a larger-than-expected Swedish rate cut as its central bank worries about incipient deflation notwithstanding a booming property market. This might also be seen as a response to the ECB’s raft of monetary measures last month – including introducing negative rates for bank deposits with the ECB. The ECB’s own meeting on Thursday is expected to pass quietly. No new policies are likely to be launched until the most-recent ones are given time to work – though Draghi will undoubtedly play up the significance of those moves, hoping to drive the still strong euro down a little. Finally, the latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls release out a day early thanks to Friday’s public holiday will be scoured for signs of how Federal Reserve policy might pan out.

Daily Central Banks WSJ
Da Costa’s Take: Money Depot: Fed Deep in the Tool-Building Business * Fed’s Yellen Leery of Using Rates to Deal With Financial Risk * Sweden’s Central Bank Makes Large Cut to Main Interest Rate * BOE’s Haldane Says Little Evidence U.K. Is Overheating * Five Questions Ahead of the ECB’s July Meeting

Mixed Messages Ahead of the ECB and US Jobs Marc to Market
Jump in US Jobs, Gooses Yields and Lifts DollarMarc to Market

Central Bankers Appear to Line Up their DefensesWSJ
At the beginning of the week the Bank for International Settlements in Basel warned loudly of the risks of moving “too slowly and too late” to raise interest rates back toward normal. As it did before the global financial crisis, the BIS emphasized the need to act early to avoid the booms-and-busts in financial markets and offered all sorts of reasons why today’s very low inflation shouldn’t be the primary concern of central bankers. Central bankers appear to have agreed on a common response.

Nomura’s Richard Koo on Balance Sheet Recessions and the QE TrapCFA Institute
Monetary reserves have not led to an increase in private sector spending because the big economies are struggling through balance sheet recessions, and are at risk of getting stuck in a QE trap.

EMEA Weekly, Week 28Danske Bank

Italian pääministeri: Eurooppa näyttää väsyneeltäTalSa
Italian pääministeri Matteo Renzi kannattaa budjettikurista joustamista, jotta talous saataisiin kasvuun. Hän muistutti eilen Euroopan parlamentissa, että tiukkaa linjaa vaatinut Saksa sai rikkoa vuosikymmenen sitten sääntöjä elvytyksen vuoksi.

Tuhdit eväät vaikuttamiseen parlamentissaOlli Rehn / US

Italian puheenjohtajuus EU:ssa alkanutSirpa Abdallah / US

Hyvä meppi on lobbariKaiku

Ovatko Suomen talouden ongelmat rakenteellisia?Akateeminen talousblogi

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Säännöt ne vasta auttavat lastaHannu Visti