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Tuesday, July 29

29th Jul - IMF's reports, EU's sanctions

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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20 years of the European single market: growth effects of EU integrationBertelsmann

Needed: a euro pactHugo Dixon / Reuters

Euro Area Inflation--When the Rubber hits the RoadMarc to Market

Big changes at the ECB: emulating the FedTradingFloor
Minutes add transparency and accountability * Less frequent meetings warranted as crisis less acute * Rotation leaves even big countries occasionally without a vote

Is a Bloated Current Account Surplus the New German Disease?WSJ

Biggest Exporters to RussiaBespoke

IMF Chief: Jury’s Still Out On Whether Greece Debt Relief NeededWSJ
Too early for crisis-hit Greece to claim victoryFT
If this time, effort and money have not changed Greece for the better, what has it all been for?

BOE’s Broadbent Says Global Growth Would Aid U.K. – WSJ
Does monetary policy explain the British jobs recovery? – The MoneyIllusion
Does Britain’s Current Account Deficit Matter? – WSJ
UK Fiscal Policy from 2015 with shocks – Mainly Macro

The middle class is 20 percent poorer than it was in 1984 WaPo

Fed previewDanske Bank
Look for a positive twist - will the market take notice this time?

Forward Guidance: What to Watch at This Week’s Fed MeetingWSJ

5 Things Five Things to Watch in Wednesday’s U.S. GDP ReportWSJ

Thoughts Ahead of Tomorrow's Advance Estimate of Q2 GDPdshort

Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices +.3% YoY in May – Calculated Risk
Housing Slowdown? The Case-Shiller Index in Five Charts – WSJ
Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio decline in May – Calculated Risk

Consumer Confidence Surges; Highest Since the 2007 Market Peakdshort
Consumer Confidence Explodes Higher To October 2007 Highs – ZH
Consumer Confidence Surges – Bespoke

Abenomics Virtuous Cycle Spinning More SlowlyWSJ

Profits, politics and panic in ChinaTradingFloor
Anti-graft campaign hits commercial sector * Deal-making slows as executives keep heads down * Corruption probe bad news for company tight on cash flow

Daily MacroWSJ
Clearly, no one’s worried about the Fed signaling an earlier interest-rate increase than the far-off event that the market is pricing. But while that might make sense for tomorrow, given the FOMC’s unwillingness to rock the bottom, the idea of an actual earlier-than-expected rate increase seems to us like precisely the kind of thing that could test the viability of this new round of Asian speculation. Remember the taper tantrum.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Tame Inflation Expectations a Trump Card for Fed’s Doves * New Bank of England Deputy Is a Potential Guide on Interest Rates * IMF Warns U.K. on Interest Rates * Exports Likely a Hot Topic at Coming BOJ Meeting * Bank of Israel Trims Benchmark Interest Rate

IMF: Rising rates, emerging market slowdown could dampen global growthWaPo

FX:  Still WaitingMarc to Market

Larry Summers InterviewThe New Republic
The economy hasn't grown rapidly "in a financially sustainable way" for a long time – the former Treasury secretary on WhatsApp vs. Sony and why we need the Export-Import bank

FX Rates, Contrarian Investments and the Misleading Concept Called GDPSNBCHF

2014 IMF Spillover Report
Report – IMF
External Sector Report – IMF
External Sector Report - Individual Economy Assessments – IMF
Changing Growth Trends Carry New Global Spillovers – IMF

Suomesta voi hävitä kymmeniätuhansia työpaikkoja Venäjä-pakotteiden johdostaYLE
Elinkeinoelämän keskusliiton Venäjästä vastaava johtaja Kai Mykkänen varoittaa, että Suomen vienti Venäjälle voi pudota kymmeniä prosenttiyksikköjä, jos Länsimaat sulkevat Venäjän rahoitusmaailmasta. "Silloin puhutaan kyllä kymmenistätuhansista työpaikoista."

Säännöstelyn joutsenlauluVesa Varhee / TalSa
Maailmantalouden rakenteet tekevät paluuta viime vuosisadan alun tilanteeseen. Yritystoiminta kansainvälistyy, ja ulkomaankaupan rajoituksia puretaan.

Maailmantuska ja HeSariTyhmyri
Jos lahjoittaa avaimensa, pankkitilinsä tunnukset ja kännykän on turha vinkua elämänhallinnasta

Talouskriisi näytti, miksi Yhdysvaltojen talous on Eurooppaa vahvempiHS

Esimerkki lammasmaisuudesta Hannu Visti