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Tuesday, July 1

1st Jul - Hopelesness building ahead of ECB

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Bulgaria's escalating banking crisisDanske Bank

Geopolitical Risks Cloud Future of Russian EconomyIMF
Russia Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Informational Annex; Press Release – IMF
Russian Federation: Selected Issues – IMF
IMF Concludes 2014 Article IV Consultation with RussiaIMF
Uncertainties set to hamper growth in the short to medium term * Capacity constraints continue to weigh on economic growth * Lingering geopolitical uncertainties likely to impact investment

A French CureProject Syndicate
Jean Pisani-Ferry: France is widely regarded as a country that has failed to embrace globalization or to modernize its economic and social model. Can it map out a way forward and rebuild prosperity?

The ECB is not like the mythical "one handed economist"Money Matters

ECB Preview: Message from June meeting on repeatDanske Bank

Deflating euro zone inflation expectationsReuters
With signs the fragile euro zone recovery may already be faltering, the threat of deflation remains real. The danger of course, as the Bank of Japan knows well, is that when deflation sets in, it does so very gently. But once it does, it can take a generation to escape.

Euro area unemployment rate at 11.6% - Eurostat
Strong Spanish manufacturing PMI in June – Danske Bank

How bad policy is making the Great Recession’s damage permanentWaPo

The World’s Central BankerProject Syndicate

The Slow Down in the House Price Indexes – Calculated Risk
ISM Manufacturing Drops, Misses By Most Since January – ZH
ISM Manufacturing index declined slightly in June to 55.3 – Calculated Risk
ISM Manufacturing Weaker Than Expected – Bespoke
Construction Spending increased slightly in May – Calculated Risk

How loose is China’s monetary policy?Bruegel

5 Takeaways From the BOJ TankanWSJ

Economists React: Activity at China’s Factories Perks Up – WSJ
China: Manufacturing PMI in June improves for fourth month in a row – Danske Bank

Daily MacroWSJ
The manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes for June were released Tuesday morning without any clear message other than that the global economy is expanding, albeit at a moderate pace. Within the individual reports, China is back to modest expansion while the U.K. is booming. Elsewhere, manufacturing is contracting in Turkey, South Korea, Norway and France. The latest Bank of Japan tankan survey of Japanese business came in weaker than expected as the negative impact of the consumption tax increase in April continues to be felt. Perhaps that should be unsurprising given the significant compression of real wages following the jump in inflation caused by the tax increase. 

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Economy at Midpoint Unnerving for Investors and Unsatisfying for Workers * Fed’s Williams Upbeat on Growth, But Sees No Rush on Rates * Supreme Court Rejects Appeal Over AIG Bailout * Australia’s Central Bank Keeps Interest Rates at Record Low * Global Inflation Picked Up in May

Global Central Banking in 2014, A Second Quarter Update for 24 EconomiesWSJ

Learned Macroeconomic HelplessnessKrugman / NYT
The Secret of Belgium’s SuccessKrugman / NYT

Is Euro-Yen Telling Us Something about Dollar-Yen?Marc to Market

Irlanti ei selviä veloistaan ilman yhteisvastuullistamista – pettävätkö euromaat lupauksensa?Tyhmyri

Luottokanta 92 miljardia euroa maaliskuun 2014 lopussa – Tilastokeskus