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Wednesday, July 16

16th Jul - Signs of market doubts



Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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EUROPE
SNB Seen Keeping Cap for Longer as ECB Fights Low Prices – BB

  POLITICS
Why Juncker’s industrial goals are unlikely to be achieved – Bruegel

EU's Juncker says countries should get incentives to reform, warns on U.S. trade pact – Reuters
Euro zone countries should get financial incentives if they make ambitious economic reforms, the designated candidate to become the president of the European Commission said on Tuesday.

Franco-German stand-off over eurozone fiscal rules reaches biblical proportions – Open Europe

France’s tough battle for the euro – FT

  CRISIS COUNTRIES
Retreating Renzi is proving to be no Italian saviour – TradingFloor
Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi retreating from reformist agenda * Italian debt-to-GDP ratio at 133% with prospects of reduction to 60% minimal * Renzi on collision course with fellow Italian Mario Draghi at ECB over debt

EU summit: Leaked draft of new Russia sanctions – FT
EU Prepares for Stage 2+ Sanctions against Russia – Marc to Market

Great Graphic: Problem Loans in Europe 2009-2013 – Marc to Market

Portugal 'Dead Cat Bounces' After Reassurances From Central Bank – ZH

BES slide, tumbling German sentiment hit markets – Reuters
European stocks and the euro fell on Tuesday after shares in Portugal's biggest listed bank hit a record low, while a plunge in German economic sentiment pushed up borrowing costs for some peripheral euro zone countries.

Espirito Santo Bonds Rally on Shareholder Assurance – BB
Portugal’s central bank said shareholders are interested in injecting more capital into Banco Espirito Santo SA after a second affiliate failed to repay short-term debt.

EU/IMF troika wraps up Greek mini-audit before major fall review – Reuters
Inspectors from Greece's EU/IMF lenders said on Wednesday they had concluded a short, interim checkup of the country's performance under its bailout and will return for a more comprehensive audit in late September.

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
So, Who Expects QE in the Euro Zone? – WSJ

Nowotny not sure ECB's plan for asset-backed securities would fly – Reuters

  MACRO NUMBERS
Euro area international trade in goods surplus €15.4 bn – Eurostat
Euro zone industry stumbles in May, recovery still frail – Reuters

UNITED STATES
  FEDERAL RESERVE
Yellen Testimony – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch

Forget What Yellen Said, Worry About What She Didn’t Say – WSJ

Yellen defends Fed independence, faces House Republican criticism – Reuters

Yellen Says Fed Won’t Rule Out Broker Support in Banking Crisis – BB

  MACRO NUMBERS
Retail Sales Weaker Than Expected – Bespoke
Industrial Production Drops, Misses By Most Since January – ZH
Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.2% in June – Calculated Risk
U.S. factory output surges in second quarter, housing improving – Reuters
U.S. industrial production edges higher in June – Reuters
Gain in Factory Output Provides Boost to U.S. Growth – BB
Homebuilder Sentiment Surges, Beats By Most In A Year Led By "Future" Hopes – ZH
Homebuilder Confidence Increases More Than Expected – Bespoke
NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 53 in July, Highest in Six Months – Calculated Risk
Producer Price Index Rises Above Expectations – dshort
Wholesale Prices in U.S. Increase More Than Forecast on Fuel – BB
U.S. economic activity expands in Fed's 12 districts: Beige Book – Reuters

ASIA
Michael Pettis: Bad debt cannot simply be ‘socialized’ – Credit Writedowns
China - growth accelerates and firmer H2 outlook – Danske Bank
GDP, Industrial Production Beat, Retail Sales Miss & Home Prices Tumble – ZH
Economists React: Can China’s Growth Pickup Last? – WSJ

Demand Exceeds Supply in Japan for First Time Since 2008 – BB

OTHER
Daily Macro – WSJ
Asian equities were mixed and broadly sideways despite the release of a stronger than expected set of Chinese data. But Europe rallied strongly, shrugging off Espirito Santo’s default on a debt owing to Portugal Telecom. Investors are more optimistic about a resolution to the Portuguese crisis – Banco Espirito Santo shares jumped and Portuguese government bond yields eased back – removing even residual fears that this could become a Europe-wide systemic crisis.

Daily Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed Tries New Role as Lines Judge for Markets * Fed’s Yellen Hedges Her View on Rates * Fed’s George: Economy ‘Best Served’ By Fed Raising Rates * China GDP Grows 7.5% in Second Quarter * BOE’s Carney Sees BIS Disconnect From Reality

Dollar Firms on Hump Day, but does it have Staying Power? – Marc to Market

Bank of Canada Stays Neutral Calling CPI Rise Temporary – BB