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Tuesday, February 10

10th Feb - Tight ahead Eurogroup on Greece

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Meditations on the Eurozone and Secession All About Alpha
How, if at all, might the break-up of the Eurozone be accomplished non-catastrophically

Contingent liabilities and non-performing loans in EU Member StatesEurostat
Periphery business cycle monitorDanske Bank
Greek political uncertainty is in focus,  spillover to other periphery countries has so far been relatively limited…we expect economic activity to be supported by the oil price decline and stimuli from the ECB.

Guest post: Deadly euro dancesFT
A standoff continues between Greece and its creditors. Peter Doyle, an economist and former IMF staffer, argues that much more is at stake in the eurozone.

The Krone Peg To Euro Might Be Rotten In The State Of DenmarkAlpha Now
Danish inflation below zero for the first time since 1954 – Nordea
Speculation Against Denmark’s Euro Peg Proving Relentless – BB

Greece - Cognitive RestructuringMacronomics
Fair debt relief for Greece: New calculations – voxeu
Syriza and the rent-seekers – FT
The Greek Austerity Myth – Project Syndicate
Greece Needs 10 Billion-Euro Bridge Funding From EU – BB
Greek defense minister says Greece has Plan B if EU rigid on deal – Reuters
Europe To Propose 6 Month Extension – ZH
Greece Offers Debt-Talks Compromise – BB
Greece, Acemoglu and Robinson – Tony Yates
Greece’s ‘Bridge’ to Nowhere? – WSJ
Greece: Incremental Solutions Will Not Work – PIIE
Greece: An Economic Tragedy in Six Charts – PIIE
Greece’s ‘Bridge’ to Nowhere? – WSJ
Schauble: 6 Month Report "Wrong", If No New Programme "All Over" – ZH
Greek FinMin Varoufakis Warns "Be Ready For A Clash" – ZH

On The Fed Credibility GapTim Duy
The Fed's expected policy path, and any desire for an even more aggressive policy path pushed by some market participants, is at odds with a secular stagnation scenario. But it appears something similar to that scenario is price into bond markets. If the Fed is not open to such a scenario, they risk tightening too aggressively and turning an expansion that should last at least four more years into one with only two left.

Musings on the Long EndGlobal Macro Trading

China January inflation hits five-year low – Reuters
Economists React: China’s Inflation at a Five-Year Low – WSJ
China: expect no rate cut despite disinflation – Nordea
China monetary easing seen to avert deflationary spiral – FT

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: A Financial Stability Argument for Early Fed Rate Hikes * Central Bankers Bash “Audit the Fed” Bill * Fed’s George: Raise Rates Early In Cycle To Ward Off Imbalances * China Inflation Drops to Five-Year Low in January

Daily MacroWSJ
China’s consumer price index dropped to its lowest level in five years, and its producer price index sank even deeper into annual deflation. As a big contributor to both the world’s supply of manufactured goods and the demand for commodities, that works in favor of those who see global deflation continuing to be a threat. But on the other side of the equation, the International Energy Agency predicted a rebound in oil prices.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

FI Eye-OpenerNordea
Greece once again in the spotlight * The pressure on Denmark is not fading any time soon * After last Friday’s NFP, we look for further boosts today

Consolidative Tone as Dollar Awaits Fresh NewsMarc to Market

Stocks Drift, Dollar Stronger, Oil Snaps Rally, Treasurys Slide On Microsoft Deal

Daily ShotTradingFloor

FX UpdateTradingFloor
Dollar rally and anticipation of rate hikes gives bulls promise on Friday * AUD, NZD and CAD have pushed back to important resistance levels against USD * USD needs to make a show of strength today to avoid more consolidation

From the floor: No peripheral panic yetTradingFloor
Davis: Street talk of Chinese policy action  *Fasdal: No sign of Greek contagion...yet * Hardy: USD must rally today, or else... * Garnry: Blame the dollar for cola woes

Strategy Sweden: On the radarNordea
Riksbank: chasing the same old tail * Riksbank QE: could it be more likely than markets think? * EUR rates: is -20bps a ”soft” floor for Schatz? * FX: EUR/USD undershooting long-term averages is fair * FX: EUR/SEK vols on the rise ahead of the Riksbank

How To Trade The Greek Dra(ch)ma Endgame In One Handy Flow ChartZH
UBS: currently in “medium and falling”-risk appetite, only US treasuries will perform if risk aversion increases.

Growth around the WorldFED
Still Below the Trend; U.S. Faring Better than Most

The Canadian housing market – in chartsSober Look
Deutsche Bank: Canada’s housing market is 63% overvalued relative to its historical average

Eichengreen: Cassandras and currency warsFT
The Eurozone shows signs of moving, at least modestly, from fiscal consolidation to greater fiscal ease. With sufficiently aggressive monetary action and supportive fiscal steps, policy can still produce results even in this environment. Without that action and those steps, however, the Cassandras of currency wars will be right.

El-Erian: An Accidental Currency War?Project Syndicate
Six and a half years after the global financial crisis, central banks in emerging and developed economies alike are continuing to pursue unprecedentedly activist – and unpredictable – monetary policy. How much road remains in this extraordinary journey?

Jim O’Neill: Two Cheers for the New NormalBruegel
In a bleak economic climate, the only winners have been the wealthy, resulting in skyrocketing inequality. Is this scenario entirely right?

Macro Digest: Reasons to be fearful, here's threeTradingFloor
Steen Jakobsen: This week we've got a whole bunch of stress indicators that even individually would be worrying. But – converging as they do in the same week – the questions surrounding the Danish krone peg, Fed rate policy and the possibility of a Greek exit from the euro are all the more urgent. It's time to be nimble!

Suomen vienti yllätti myönteisesti | USA:sta tietoa avoimista työpaikoista sekä pienyrittäjien luottamusindeksi | Alexis Tsipras palasi kovalle linjalle

Pääekonomisti Suomen talouden suuri ongelmaTeknologiateollisuus
Vientituloja puuttuu jopa 30 miljardia euroa – tarve aikaansaada merkittäviä rakenneuudistuksia

Tarjontalinja-esityksen materiaalitRaha ja Talous

Paavo Rautio: Kreikka kulkee lippu liehuen kohti rotkoaHS

Hirveä työvoimapulaJussi Halla-aho

Euron heikkoudet on korjattavaPäivi Lipponen

Tauti löytyi, mistä lääke?Vesa Varhee / TalSa

Pk-yritysten kannattavuus tippuu ja huoli työpaikoista kasvaa – Verkkouutiset
Asiantuntijat: EMU-maiden talousvastuuta on vahvistettava – Verkkouutiset

Teollisuustuotanto jouluk. -0,9% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuustuotanto vähentynyt kolmena vuonna peräkkäin – Verkkouutiset

Teollisuuden uudet tilaukset jouluk. +15,2% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Valopilkku: Teollisuuden uudet tilaukset kasvussa – Verkkouutiset
Tilausten nousu antaa liian valoisan kuvan – Nordea