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Tuesday, February 17

17th Feb - After Greek talks fail - rally

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Nominal GDP Is What Matters For The PeripheryAlpha Now
Growth in 2014 Q4, of 0.3% across the euro area as a whole, masked a somewhat varied performance from member state to member state. And for countries where debt sustainability is an issue, it is nominal growth that matter at least as much as real economic growth.

Next Week's Other DeadlineMarc to Market
Greece has been an important catalyst for much of the institutional evolution within Europe since 2010.  The framework developed so that Greece can keep its official creditors whole, such as the EFSF and ESM, was rolled out to other countries subsequently.

Cyprus: an island in search of a saga to learn fromFistful of Euros

Spain’s “Good” Deflation?Fistful of Euros

Draghi QE Plan Seen Challenged by Hoarders Amassing Bonds – BB

UK inflation was 0.3% in January - new historic low – Danske Bank
Swedish January inflation spot on Riksbank forecast – Danske Bank

Juhani Huopainen: Eurogroup talks on Greek debt turn into a game of leaksTF
Yet another meeting of the European leaders has failed to find a solution to Greece's ending bailout program. Dubbed the last chance, in reality they weren't that at all, and the true end game is just about to start. I expect a last-minute, face-saving compromise that pushes decisions about the really difficult questions as far off as June.

Jan von Gerich : Greece: Increasingly absurdNordea
Another attempt to find a solution to the future of Greece failed miserably, and disagreements remain high. The general market reaction is likely to remain short-lived, which would illustrate the limits of the Greek negotiation power. A failure to reach an agreement in the coming weeks could easily trigger bank runs, ECB liquidity withdrawal, and even a Grexit. The stakes are thus high.

Greek crisis talks collapse in acrimony as Syriza defies EMUThe Telegraph
'The only way to solve Greece is to treat us like equals; not a debt colony,' says Greek finance minister

Deutsche Bank’s What Happened Today, And What Happens Next – ZH
Greek Debt Talks Collapse. Street Reacts – WSJ
Eurogroup may figure Grexit doesn’t have to be the end of the Euro – Tony Yates
Meeting halted early as Eurozone insists Greece must ask for an extension – Open Europe
Negotiation Breakdown Exposes Widening Rift Between Germany and GreeceYves Smith

Is Greece really going to leave the eurozone? – Tyler Cowen
Greece and Eurogroup - a Clash of Democracies – euinside
How To Trade The Grexit Scenarios, And What The "Worst-Case" Looks Like – ZH
Greek stand-off – The Economist
Three Reasons Merkel Is So Stubborn – View / BB

Greek Banks Need More Emergency Funds as Deposits Drop – BB
As Bank Run Accelerates, Greek Depositors Pray To Saint Mario – ZH
No end to emergency funds for Greek banks expected this week –source – Reuters
David Marsh: Greece’s Varoufakis still holds a trump card – MarketWatch
EU blows hot and cold, waiting for Greece to bend – Reuters

What Does Greece Want? And What Will It Get? – WSJ

Q&A: Explaining ‘Audit the Fed’WSJ
What People Mean When They Say ‘Audit the Fed’NYT

US: Revising down H1 GDP growthDanske Bank
Emerging Markets Briefer - February 2015 - Danske Bank
Daily Central BanksWSJ
Schlesinger’s Take: Sluggish Rebound Tests Bank of Japan Assumptions On Growth, Policy Gains * Fed’s Mester Sees June Rate Increases as a “Viable Option” * Powell Continues Push Against ‘Audit the Fed’ Bill * Nobody Knows Nairu, and That’s a Problem for the Fed

Daily MacroWSJ
Greece continues to dominate the headlines. The latest meeting between Greece and the Eurogroup, its eurozone creditors, finished quickly Monday without resolution. Some commentators see it as an unsurmountable impasse. Others think it’s just a matter of tweaking language before an agreement is struck to extend–with some possible modifications–the current rescue program for another six months. Precedent suggests a last-minute agreement is the likeliest outcome, though there’s always scope for accidents to happen.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Eye-Opener Nordea
Greek talks fail * Fresh optimism about the state of the German economy * USD uptrend challenged * Short German bond yields at record low

Euro Recoups Yesterday's Losses, but Brinkmanship Tactics ContinueMarc to Market

Daily ShotTradingFloor
Italy, Greece lead "underground economy" stats * Disinflation hitting India, South Korea as wholesale prices drop * Ukraine continues its slide into depession

Futures Rebound On Collapse In Greek Negotiations, After Europe's Largest Derivatives Exchange Breaks

FX UpdateTradingFloor
The collapse of Greece/EU talks saw the euro on the defensive, but there are hardly signs of panic as EURCHF remains fairly buoyant on the assumption that a deal is eventually struck, even as the timetable is very compressed. Eslewhere, the BoJ is on tap tonight.

From the floorTradingFloor
From the Floor homes in on an interesting volatilities spike in one-year at-the-money USDCNH as talk on a potential Chinese rate cut refuses to go away. Meanwhile, the Greece talks may have collapsed but the markets are unfazed, although bonds expect to take a hit today.

Daily NewsletterTradingFloor
Those Greek talks may have collapsed but, aside from a brief dip in EUR, the markets seem to have shrugged its shoulders and moved on. EUR can still expect to be under some pressure today though.

Kreikan pokka pitää – vielä | Tänään luvassa Saksan ZEW-indeksi | Euroopan korkomarkkinoilla rauhallista Kreikasta huolimatta

Saksan eurovastainen ”professoripuolue” AfD levittäytyy länteenHenri Myllyniemi / PS

Aika loppumassa – kuilu Kreikan ja velkojien välillä leveniHenri Myllyniemi / PS

Vastenmielinen Kreikka-näytelmä – hölmöilyä eurojohtajiltaTyhmyri

Arhinmäen keuliminen osoittaa, miten huonosti Suomessa ymmärretään KreikkaaIS

Vain ero katkaisisi brittien ikuisen kitinänTalSa

Animating Mr. Market: Adopting a Proper Psychological AttitudeCredit Suisse