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Thursday, February 12

12th Feb - Eurogroup post-mortem, sceptical

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Euro area macro monitorDanske Bank
Euro GDP growth for Q4 is due for release on Friday. We estimate +0.4% q/q, which is above consensus of 0.2% q/q. The main driver of our above-consensus expectation is higher growth in private consumption.

Economic Developments in the Euro AreaECB
Speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the FT Debt Capital Markets Outlook Conference in London, 12 February 2015

Still Fishing for a LimitMarc to Market
Several central banks in Europe have adopted negative policy rates.

Greece could spur Europe’s experiment with bonds that go ‘pop’FT
Banks issue loss-absorbing debt; maybe governments should too


Germany faces impossible choice as Greek austerity revolt spreads The Telegraph
"What’s happening to Greece today, will be happening to Italy tomorrow. Sooner or later, default is coming," says Italy's Beppe Grillo

Eurozone leaders believe Syriza must fail and be seen to failThe Telegraph
If other European countries are worried about Syriza to succeeding inside the euro, they are even more worried about it succeeding outside the euro.

Gareth Harding: The Myth of EuropeForeign Policy
Adair Turner: Hubris, realism and the European project – CER
Daniel Hannan: Imagine if Britain had listened to the pro-Euro lobby – Capx
Jürgen Stark: The historical and cultural differences that divide Europe’s union – FT

Riskbank Into Negative Territory, Announces Bond-Buying Program – WSJ
Riksbank decision: playing clever – TradingFloor
Riksbank cuts Sweden’s rates to negative – FT
Riksbank Cuts Key Rate to Negative – BB
Sweden: Going unconventional – Nordea
Surprise rate cut takes repo rate into negative territory – Handelsbanken
Sweden's cuts key rate to negative, launches QE – Reuters
Riksbank Joins Negative Rate Club – Market Reacts – WSJ
Why Sweden is testing out negative interest rates – FT

If Britain goes: Brexit would jolt the EU’s political orderFT

Inflation Report, February 2015BoE
Carney Signals Faster U.K. Rate Increases as Economy Strengthens – BB
Bank of England's Carney speaks after inflation report – Reuters
Bank of England sees strong growth but ready to cut rates if needed – Reuters
Bank of England says UK inflation could fall below zero – FT
Feb BoE Inflation Report post mortem – Tony Yates
Inflation report supports the case for rate hike in 2015 – Danske Bank
Wrong target? – The Economist
Bank of England's Mark Carney: Deflated, but not down – TradingFloor
RIP forward guidance (2013 – 2015) – Reuters

Ukrainian Cease-Fire Sealed After All-Night Minsk Peace SummitBB
Leaders agree Ukraine ceasefire after all-night talks – FT
Ukraine Gets IMF-Led $40 Billion Aid Accord to Avert Default – BB
IMF unveils $17.5bn Ukraine rescue plan – FT
Minsk 2.0 - not a game changer for the Russian rouble – Danske Bank
Ukraine's new bail-out: The austerity to come – The Economist

Greece Said to Offer Euro Area Four Principles for Talks – BB
Merkel Said to Avoid Meeting Tsipras, Doubt Tax Plans – BB
Greece, Eurozone Ministers at Fundamental Loggerheads – Yves Smith

Greece, euro zone: No deal – Reuters
Eurogroup Fails to Agree to Next Greek Bailout Steps – BB
The (almost) agreed eurogroup statement on GreeceFT
Eurogroup farce ends with nothing to give or say on GreeceTradingFloor
Greece, euro zone fail to agree on debt, to try again on Monday – Reuters

What we think happened in the 'missing hour' – BI
Eurogroup Meeting - Everything Went According to Plan! – Klaus Kastner
Long night of talks in Brussels and MinskReuters
Greek Economic Tragedy Sets Scene for Varoufakis on Debt – BB
Greek bailout talks with Europe break down – FT

EZ and Greece fail to even reach agreement on framework for negotiations – Open Europe
Open Europe raises risk of Grexit to 40% - Open Europe
Why a Grexit should (and would) be vetoedSony Kapoor
Greek PM Tsipras in Brussels as clock ticks on EU bailout – Reuters
Deutsche Bank’s Big Picture Update – ZH

Greece To ECB: "Get To Work, Mr. Draghi" – ZH
'Grexit' would be no easy ride for austerity-weary Greeks – Reuters
Anna Diamantopoulou: Growth, not Grexit – Project Syndicate
Last Night at Eurogroup: Varoufakis vs Greece’s Creditors – WSJ


Eurozone QE Could Fall on Barren Ground, Warns ECB EconomistWSJ
Biggest Risk to Program is if Governments Don’t Reform Economies, Says Peter Praet

Benefit of ECB’s Bond Buying: Fiscal Breathing RoomWSJ
Countries, Such as Spain and Italy, Gain Leeway to Stabilize Their Debt Ratios

Greek banks solvent at the moment - ECB's Jazbec – Reuters
Greek banks on emergency funding must remain solvent: ECB's Praet – Reuters
ECB policymakers hold teleconference about Greek bank liquidity – sources – Reuters
Stealth Greek Bank Run: ECB Hikes Emergency Lending To EUR 65 Billion – ZH

WSJ Survey: Forecasters See Blue Skies Ahead, But Check Back LaterWSJ

Retail Sales Plunge Twice As Much As Expected – ZH
U.S. retail sales weak, consumer spending gauge barely rises – Reuters
Another Disappointing Retail Sales Report – BB
Retail Sales decreased 0.8% in January – Calculated Risk

Australian Jobless Rate Jumps to 6.4% in JanuaryBB

BOJ Is Said to See Extra Stimulus Counterproductive for NowBB

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: More Disturbing Findings Emerge on U.S. Productivity Path * Fisher Says Fed Should Move Power Away From New York * Sweden Adopts Negative Rate, Launches QE * Bank of England Signals Rate Rise in 2016

Daily MacroWSJ
In terms of the investor mood in European trading hours, a cease-fire in Ukraine has trumped the lack of any resolution to the Greek crisis in Brussels, although the former isn’t necessarily good news nor the latter, bad. Russia’s ambitions in Ukraine are unlikely to have been achieved until a land link is created between the country and its newly re-acquired Crimean province. Meanwhile, Greece’s negotiations with its creditors will probably go down to the wire, but some sort of compromise is in everybody’s interest.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Stalled Greek talks, interesting central bank signals, oil price rebound losing steam * All eyes on the Riksbank * US yields finally making a real try towards higher levels * SEK may gain on little action from Riksbank

Ceasefire with Russia, No Deal on GreeceMarc to Market

Daily ShotTradingFloor
No deal reached between Greece, Eurozone * UK housing rally fades to a close * Fed rate hike risk hits precious metals

Whirlwind Manic-Depressive Session Sees Futures Slide Then Surge

FX UpdateTradingFloor
AUD was pounded on a very weak jobs report. Elsewhere, nothing of note emerging from the EU/Greece talks and it theoretically remains that the euro will stay in limbo. But things are simply too quiet in EURUSD, where something must give.

From the floorTradingFloor
In terms of what has affected this morning's trading, Australia's shockingly negative employment report has punched a further set of holes in an already weak currency. On the sidelines, however, Greece and Ukraine continue to sway sentiment as concrete statements remain elusive.

Majors & Scandi: FX forecastNordea
Monetary policy and growth divergence will keep the EURUSD weakening trend intact, on the way towards parity. The UK situation resembles more the US than the Euro area, thus the first rate hike will be moved forward by markets, benefitting the GBP. The BoJ will keep the policy easing, and the response will be capital outflows, weakening the JPY. Improving global growth prospects will eventually support commodity currencies and re-weaken the CHF, albeit volatility will remain high.

Majors & Scandi: Central bank and rates forecasts Nordea
Bond yields have been falling globally, and to levels one could easily argue are not fully in line with the developments in the global economy, but reflecting strong, and to a large degree policy induced, underlying demand for bonds.

Emerging Markets: Central Bank & FX forecastNordea
Our near-term forecast sticks to our call of general EM FX weakening vs the USD in the coming 6 months. We expect weakening pressures to be driven by general negative risk sentiment towards EM FX ahead of the first Fed hike. The recent rebound of commodity prices has left the commodity currencies some breathing room, but they remain vulnerable to any further negative swings in prices.

Goldman: Here's Why Oil Crashed—and Why Lower Prices Are Here to StayBB
Numbers indicate that the big culprit in the oil crash has been an abundance of oil flooding the market

Ei toimia, vain diskuteerausta | USA:n vähittäismyyntiluvut päivän tärkein datajulkistus | Euroalueen valtiovarainministerit eivät päässeet Kreikan kanssa sopuun

"Vaikea kuvitella, että kaikki säilyttävät kasvonsa"TalSa
Eurooppa tulee rämpimään lamassa vielä hyvän tovin ja Kreikka saattaa lähteä eurosta. Näin ennustavat yhdysvaltalaiset talousvaikuttajat.

Eurooppa muuttuu - tavalla tai toisellaHenri Myllyniemi / US

Euromailla monta syytä taipua Kreikan edessäHenri Myllyniemi / PS