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Monday, February 16

16th Feb - Talks with Greece break down again

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David Frost: How EU renegotiation will happen and how to pursue itOpen Europe
Most comment so far about Britain’s proposed renegotiation of its relationship with the EU has focused on its potential political aims and their attainability. Less attention has been given to how that renegotiation will happen and how Britain should pursue it.

Merkel's conservatives suffer blow in state vote, eurosceptics gainReuters

Disinflation in non-Eurozone EU
The ongoing, synchronised disinflation across Europe raises the question of whether non-Eurozone EU countries are affected by the undershooting of the Eurozone inflation target, by other global factors, or by synchronised domestic, real sector developments. This column argues that falling world food and energy prices have been the main disinflationary driver. However, countries with more rigid exchange-rate regimes and/or higher shares of foreign value added in domestic demand have also been affected by disinflationary spillovers from the Eurozone.

Kemal Derviş: Fiscal Austerity Versus European SocietyProject Syndicate
In recent years, European leaders have focused relentlessly on fiscal austerity and structural reform, despite serious social and political repercussions. Unless they rethink their approach, the radical Syriza party's recent victory in Greece will be just one more step toward a future of social fragmentation and political instability.

Rebecca Harding: The German ProblemPieria
Economic and geopolitical events of the last month have exposed fault-lines in the subsequent treaties, pacts and agreements that now call into question Europe’s enduring capacity for compromise and demand leadership. The answer to the challenges faced may well be Germany. And that’s the problem.

Euro area international trade in goods surplus €194.8 bn – EC
Euro area trade surplus hits all-time high in December – TradingFloor

Greece Also Has Big Headaches at Home – WSJ
Greece's Tsipras has to watch left flank as well as EU – Reuters
EU Is Back in the Greece Mode – euinside
Eurogroup negotiations over Greece descend into farce – Open Europe
Eurogroup Talks Terminated; Greece “Won’t Take Orders on Bailout” – Yves Smith

Greek debt talks with euro zone break down, way forward uncertain – Reuters
Greek banks to run out of collateral in 14 weeks: JP Morgan – Reuters
Dijsselbloem: Greece has until Friday to request bailout extension – Reuters
Greek Talks With Euro-Area Finance Ministers Break Up – BB
Greek FinMin Varoufakis "It's Plan A, There Is No Plan B" Press Conference– ZH

Eurogroup breaks up with no agreement as Greece isolated – Open Europe
Weimar on the AegeanKrugman / NYT
Greek bailout: Crisis escalates as eurogroup talks break up – The Guardian
Grexit? Beware of slippery slopesJacques Delors Institut

Italy is Europe’s ticking time bombWaPo
Italy has only grown 4 percent—in total—since the euro was created 16 years ago. That's worse than Greece.

Greek crisis opens Portuguese faultlines over future of eurozoneFT

No Podemos, Syriza Won’t Translate Too Well in SpanishBloomberg Brief

Goldman Sachs Four Key Themes From Q4 EarningsZH
From Dollar Headwinds To Management Over-Confidence

Japan: Out of recession, but Q4 GDP growth weaker than expected – Danske Bank
JPY Slides After Japanese GDP Disappoints – ZH
5 Takeaways from Japan’s GDP Data – WSJ
Growth Data Show Inflation for First Time in 17 Years – WSJ
Economists Negative on Japan GDP – WSJ
Japan: disappointing growth supports our BoJ call – Nordea
Japan emerges from recession but growth subdued – Reuters
Japan's Suga: GDP data shows consumer spending recovery lagging – Reuters
Abe hopes BOJ keeps stimulus to meet inflation goal, upbeat on economy – Reuters
Instant View: Japan grows 2.2% in Q4, emerges from recession – Reuters

China January FDI grows at strongest pace in four years – Reuters

A few chart observationsGlobal Macro Trading
Momentum in the EUR has stalled, just as prices have become quite stretched relative to long term moving averages * Yields are also quite stretched vs long term averages…now is NOT the time to be long duration

QuickTake News in contextBloomberg Brief
76 pages of articles from sports to ECB

What is Driving the Dollar?Marc to Market

FX: how low can we go?Nordea
Zero is no longer a taboo, and central banks are determined to do more. Yes, they CAN - but WILL they? This week's European data and price developments should calm deflationists..

GS on HY Energy DefaultsGlobal Macro Trading

Active Managers Losing Ground Can Thank John BogleInstitutional Investor

Crush the financial sector, end the great stagnation?FT
Productivity growth in the rich world started slowing down around the same time that the financial sector’s share of economic activity started rising rapidly. A new paper from the Bank for International Settlements suggests a causal connection.

Daily MacroWSJ
The Japanese economy remains a disappointment. GDP growth undershot expectations in Q4 as domestic consumption fell short…Greece will be back at the negotiating table with its European Union creditors later Monday. The country’s government hasn’t got much wiggle room, which suggests it’ll have to back down on its demands if it wants to stay in the eurozone.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Japan disappoints, markets expecting a Greek solution, we change our SEK forecast: FOMC minutes to point to mid-year lift-off * Japan lingers out of recession? * Rates in Greece continue to fall

Dollar Goes Nowhere Waiting for EurogroupMarc to Market

Daily Shot: Designing a Grecian bridgeTradingFloor
Ahead of today's crunch Greece-Eurozone meeting our correspondent outlines the scale of the country's indebtedness. Because a Grexit could trigger such enormous problems throughout the bloc, an interim solution is likely to be found pretty soon. But a longer-term fix addressing Greece's problems in full will also be needed.

Markets Quiet Ahead Of Eurogroup Summit; US On Holiday

FX UpdateTradingFloor
The USD rally has fizzled over the last couple of weeks and USD pairs are stuck in technical limbo. We may get some resolution this week either way, but the chief risk may be of aimless chopping around on the lack of fresh catalysts.

From the floorTradingFloor
Peter Garnry makes an interesting case for using a short life insurance stance as a hedge against negative rates in the Eurozone. meanwhile, Japan falls short of GDP forecasts and the USD is on the defence after a two-week decline.

Euroalue noteeraa varovaisia kasvulukuja | Sijoittajien usko Kreikan ajautumisesta maksukyvyttömyyteen on hiipunut | Japanin talous palasi kasvun tielle

Jan Hurri: Näin Kreikka eroaisi eurostaTalSa
Kreikan ero eurosta olisi hankala harjoitus mutta se on silti mahdollinen – ja taas todennäköisempi kuin aikoihin. On aika puhaltaa pölyt parin vuoden takaisista eroselvityksistä. Niille voi olla käyttöä jo ensi viikolla.

Hyvinvointivaltio 2010-luvulla – mitä kello on lyönyt?PT
Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitos on koonnut useiden tutkijoiden artikkelit suomalaista hyvinvointiyhteiskuntaa erilaisista näkökulmista luotaavaksi kokonaisnäkemykseksi "Hyvinvointivaltio 2010-luvulla – mitä kello on lyönyt?".

EU-tuomioistuin: Suomen palkkamääräykset koskevat ulkomaalaisia työntekijöitäHS
Suomen talouden kannalta merkittävä EU tuomioistuimen päätös Tyhmyri

Myyttejä deflaatiostaRoger Wessman

FT: Kreikalle rinnakkaisvaluutta ja velat pystyyn?Henri Myllyniemi / US

Miten Venäjä reagoisi Suomen Nato-jäsenyyteen?Verkkouutiset
Sotahistorioitsija Markku Salomaa: "Ei mitenkään, koska se jo valmistautuu sotaan".

Euroopan neuvosto: Suomessa maksetaan liian pieniä minimitukiaIL
Alinta työttömyysturvaa ei ole kohennettu lähes 30 vuoteen Mitä olisi tutkittava