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EUROPE
David
Frost: How EU renegotiation will happen and how to pursue it – Open
Europe
Most
comment so far about Britain’s proposed renegotiation of its relationship with
the EU has focused on its potential political aims and their attainability.
Less attention has been given to how that renegotiation will happen and how
Britain should pursue it.
Merkel's
conservatives suffer blow in state vote, eurosceptics gain – Reuters
Disinflation
in non-Eurozone EU nations – VoxEU.org
The
ongoing, synchronised disinflation across Europe raises the question of whether
non-Eurozone EU countries are affected by the undershooting of the Eurozone
inflation target, by other global factors, or by synchronised domestic, real
sector developments. This column argues that falling world food and energy
prices have been the main disinflationary driver. However, countries with more
rigid exchange-rate regimes and/or higher shares of foreign value added in
domestic demand have also been affected by disinflationary spillovers from the Eurozone.
Kemal
Derviş: Fiscal Austerity Versus European Society – Project
Syndicate
In recent
years, European leaders have focused relentlessly on fiscal austerity and structural
reform, despite serious social and political repercussions. Unless they rethink
their approach, the radical Syriza party's recent victory in Greece will be
just one more step toward a future of social fragmentation and political
instability.
Rebecca
Harding: The German Problem – Pieria
Economic
and geopolitical events of the last month have exposed fault-lines in the
subsequent treaties, pacts and agreements that now call into question Europe’s
enduring capacity for compromise and demand leadership. The answer to the
challenges faced may well be Germany. And that’s the problem.
Euro area
international trade in goods surplus €194.8 bn – EC
Euro area
trade surplus hits all-time high in December – TradingFloor
GREECE
Greece Also Has Big Headaches at Home – WSJ
Greece's Tsipras has to watch left flank
as well as EU – Reuters
EU Is Back
in the Greece Mode – euinside
Greek debt
talks with euro zone break down, way forward uncertain – Reuters
Greek banks
to run out of collateral in 14 weeks: JP Morgan – Reuters
Greek Talks
With Euro-Area Finance Ministers Break Up – BB
Greek
FinMin Varoufakis "It's Plan A, There Is No Plan B" Press Conference–
ZH
Weimar on the Aegean – Krugman
/ NYT
Greek
bailout: Crisis escalates as eurogroup talks break up – The
Guardian
Grexit?
Beware of slippery slopes – Jacques
Delors Institut
CRISIS COUNTRIES
Italy is Europe’s ticking time bomb – WaPo
Italy has only grown 4 percent—in total—since
the euro was created 16 years ago. That's worse than Greece.
Greek
crisis opens Portuguese faultlines over future of eurozone – FT
No
Podemos, Syriza Won’t Translate Too Well in Spanish – Bloomberg
Brief
UNITED STATES
Goldman
Sachs Four Key Themes From Q4 Earnings – ZH
From Dollar
Headwinds To Management Over-Confidence
ASIA
Japan: Out
of recession, but Q4 GDP growth weaker than expected – Danske
Bank
JPY Slides
After Japanese GDP Disappoints – ZH
5 Takeaways
from Japan’s GDP Data – WSJ
Growth Data
Show Inflation for First Time in 17 Years – WSJ
Economists
Negative on Japan GDP – WSJ
Japan:
disappointing growth supports our BoJ call – Nordea
Japan
emerges from recession but growth subdued – Reuters
Japan's
Suga: GDP data shows consumer spending recovery lagging – Reuters
Abe hopes
BOJ keeps stimulus to meet inflation goal, upbeat on economy – Reuters
Instant
View: Japan grows 2.2% in Q4, emerges from recession – Reuters
China
January FDI grows at strongest pace in four years – Reuters
OTHER
A few
chart observations
– Global
Macro Trading
Momentum in
the EUR has stalled, just as prices have become quite stretched relative to
long term moving averages * Yields are also quite stretched vs long term
averages…now is NOT the time to be long duration
QuickTake
News in context – Bloomberg
Brief
76 pages of
articles from sports to ECB
What is
Driving the Dollar?
– Marc
to Market
FX: how
low can we go? – Nordea
Zero is no
longer a taboo, and central banks are determined to do more. Yes, they CAN -
but WILL they? This week's European data and price developments should calm
deflationists..
GS on HY
Energy Defaults – Global
Macro Trading
Active
Managers Losing Ground Can Thank John Bogle – Institutional
Investor
Crush
the financial sector, end the great stagnation? – FT
Productivity
growth in the rich world started slowing down around the same time that the
financial sector’s share of economic activity started rising rapidly. A new
paper from the Bank for International Settlements suggests a causal connection.
REGULARS
Daily
Macro – WSJ
The
Japanese economy remains a disappointment. GDP growth undershot expectations in
Q4 as domestic consumption fell short…Greece will be back at the negotiating
table with its European Union creditors later Monday. The country’s government
hasn’t got much wiggle room, which suggests it’ll have to back down on its
demands if it wants to stay in the eurozone.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Japan
disappoints, markets expecting a Greek solution, we change our SEK forecast: FOMC
minutes to point to mid-year lift-off * Japan lingers out of recession? * Rates
in Greece continue to fall
Dollar
Goes Nowhere Waiting for Eurogroup – Marc
to Market
Daily
Shot: Designing a Grecian bridge – TradingFloor
Ahead of
today's crunch Greece-Eurozone meeting our correspondent outlines the scale of
the country's indebtedness. Because a Grexit could trigger such enormous
problems throughout the bloc, an interim solution is likely to be found pretty
soon. But a longer-term fix addressing Greece's problems in full will also be
needed.
US Open – ZH
Markets
Quiet Ahead Of Eurogroup Summit; US On Holiday
FX
Update – TradingFloor
The USD
rally has fizzled over the last couple of weeks and USD pairs are stuck in
technical limbo. We may get some resolution this week either way, but the chief
risk may be of aimless chopping around on the lack of fresh catalysts.
From the
floor – TradingFloor
Peter
Garnry makes an interesting case for using a short life insurance stance as a
hedge against negative rates in the Eurozone. meanwhile, Japan falls short of GDP forecasts and
the USD is on the defence after a two-week decline.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Euroalue noteeraa varovaisia kasvulukuja | Sijoittajien usko
Kreikan ajautumisesta maksukyvyttömyyteen on hiipunut | Japanin talous palasi
kasvun tielle
Jan Hurri: Näin Kreikka eroaisi eurosta – TalSa
Kreikan ero eurosta olisi hankala harjoitus mutta se on
silti mahdollinen – ja taas todennäköisempi kuin aikoihin. On aika puhaltaa
pölyt parin vuoden takaisista eroselvityksistä. Niille voi olla käyttöä jo ensi
viikolla.
Hyvinvointivaltio 2010-luvulla – mitä kello on lyönyt?
– PT
Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitos on koonnut useiden tutkijoiden
artikkelit suomalaista hyvinvointiyhteiskuntaa erilaisista näkökulmista
luotaavaksi kokonaisnäkemykseksi "Hyvinvointivaltio 2010-luvulla – mitä
kello on lyönyt?".
EU-tuomioistuin: Suomen palkkamääräykset koskevat
ulkomaalaisia työntekijöitä – HS
Suomen talouden kannalta merkittävä EU tuomioistuimen
päätös – Tyhmyri
Myyttejä deflaatiosta – Roger Wessman
FT: Kreikalle rinnakkaisvaluutta ja velat pystyyn? – Henri
Myllyniemi / US
Miten Venäjä reagoisi Suomen Nato-jäsenyyteen? – Verkkouutiset
Sotahistorioitsija Markku Salomaa: "Ei mitenkään, koska
se jo valmistautuu sotaan".
Euroopan neuvosto: Suomessa maksetaan liian pieniä
minimitukia – IL
Alinta työttömyysturvaa ei ole kohennettu lähes 30
vuoteen – Mitä
olisi tutkittava