Google Analytics

Wednesday, February 18

18th Feb - Again waiting for Greece

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

On the binariness of the euro, or lack of itTony Yates
Fixed exchange rates and Blame Thy NeighbourWorthwhile

Failed Discipline, Failed Reforms and Grexit: Why the Euro FailedCharles Smith

Alessio Terzi: Are Italy’s stars of reform aligning?Bruegel
Two interesting institutional documents were released over the past 10 days: the Going for Growth 2015 of the OECD and the Winter Economic Forecast of the European Commission. A combined reading suggests that a) there is (ample) scope for Italy to step up its reform efforts, and b) the time might be ripe to do so.

EU seeks to relax securitisation rulesFT  
Brussels is making a renewed push to relax rules on an asset class once blamed for poisoning the financial system as it seeks the elusive formula for unlocking credit to households and businesses.

France’s Hollande Busts Government Majority in Reform PushWSJ
French President François Hollande has lost his majority. That’s certainly the conclusion that the French media have come to after the country’s Socialist head of state deployed a constitutional “nuclear option” to bypass the France’s national assembly and ram through a reformist economic law

SNB Seen Cutting Rates to Shield Economy After Franc ShockBB

ECB to Provide Record of January 22 Meeting TomorrowMarc to Market

UK labour market paves the way for a rate hike later this year – Danske Bank
BoE: Split on policy stance longer out – Nordea

Northern Lights - The unconventional VikingsNordea
Central bankers in Denmark and Sweden have plundered the fixed income markets by swinging their policy axes. Staring into the negative rate abyss they have also signaled that this might not be enough. Next to enter the battlefield will be the Norwegians in March, but so far they seem much less interested in a full frontal attack. Sweden – Inflation targeting above all * Norway – Lower wage growth and oil prices * Denmark – Strong defence of the peg * Finland – Still no recovery

Will Denmark Throw in the Towel on the Peg?WSJ

How will the oil crash affect Norway?FT

Limits to the Greek bank run?Bruegel
What are the theoretical and political limits to liquidity provisioning by the ECB?

Yanis Varoufakis: The Straw That Breaks the Ponzi’s Back?ZH

Yanis Varoufakis: How I became an erratic MarxistThe Guardian
Before he entered politics, Yanis Varoufakis, the iconoclastic Greek finance minister at the centre of the latest eurozone standoff wrote this searing account of European capitalism and and how the left can learn from Marx’s mistakes

Greek Minister Yanis Varoufakis’s Style Irks His Eurozone PeersWSJ
New finance minister flouts decorum, officials say, complicating negotiations over Greece’s debt

Greece faces resistance to extra emergency funds for banks – Reuters
For Greece continued emergency lending assistance is a necessity – FT
ECB To Grant Greece Additional €3bn ELA, €68.3 bn Total – ZH

Greece seeks loan extension – Reuters
Greece Poised to Request Six-Month Loan Extension – BB
Greece to request bailout extension – FT
Greece says will submit loan extension request on Wednesday – Reuters
Greece set to request extension but not accompanying conditions – Open Europe
Greece to submit loan request to euro zone, Germany resists – Reuters

The Battle of the DraftsFrances Coppola
Greece’s game of chicken is starting to get dangerous – WaPo
Greece’s Excess BurdenKrugman / NYT
What deal could be struck to keep Greece in the Eurozone? – Open Europe
Greece - Germany: A Clash of Cultures?Klaus Kastner

Greece’s Loan-Agreement Bluff – WSJ
PM Tsipras declares war at home on Greece's 'oligarchs' – Reuters

Earnings RoundupAlpha Now
Consumer Companies Struggle With Strong Dollar But Benefit From Weak Oil Prices

Interactive: Explore Janet Yellen’s Official CalendarWSJ

FOMC MinutesCalculated Risk 
FOMC MinutesZH
BoJ: wait-and-see until Q4Nordea
As widely expected the BoJ left its monetary stance unchanged today. Despite the sluggish growth in Q4 the BoJ sounded cautiously optimistic on economic outlook. But we stick to our call that the BoJ will be pressured to expand the QQE in Q4 this year on disappointing inflation outlook. Our end-2016 JPY forecast is 135 vs the USD.

BOJ's Kuroda: No immediate need to ease policy againReuters

“The most important charts in the world” BI

Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2015Credit Suisse

Guide to the Markets Q1 2015J.P. Morgan

Martin Wolf: Unbalanced hopes for the world economyFT
It is futile to ignore the reality that we have an integrated global system

Martin O'Rourke: Global energy demand to rise nearly 40% by 2035: BPTF
Energy demand to rise 37% by 2035 on back of global GDP doubling * Non-OECD countries to account for virtually all of the new demand * Natural gas to become ever-more significant player, edging out coal * Energy efficiency to grow significantly, but no game changer on carbon emissions * Carbon emissions expected to rise 25% by 2035

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed Minutes Will Show How “Patient” Debate is Evolving * What to Watch in the Fed Minutes * Online Interactive: Explore Janet Yellen’s Official Calendar * BOJ’s Kuroda Signals Desire for Stable Yen * BOE Minutes Show Divisions Emerge

Daily MacroWSJ
It looks like Greece is poised to bow down to reality. But reports that a deal between Greece and its creditors is close doesn’t mean there won’t be further reversals and twists between now and a signed document. Elsewhere, the news was mixed. The U.K. economy continues to boom, with unemployment now back to precrisis levels, employment at record highs and wage growth picking up. Japan is looking up, according to its central bankers. And the Swiss corporate sector is licking the wounds inflicted on it by the Swiss central bank’s decision last month to abandon its franc ceiling.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Big central banks’ day, Fed to signal mid-year lift-off in rates * Markets complacent with Greek worries, not rattling EUR government bond markets * EUR/USD up on relative data surprises

Sterling ShinesMarc to Market

Daily ShotTradingFloor
The Greek debt talks do not just represent a conflict between Germany and Greece, as nations like Slovenia resent what they see as Greek public largesse in the midst of their commitment to austerity. Meanwhile, Indonesia's mining boom has run its course and the Ukrainian economy continues to contract.

Stocks In Holding Pattern With All Eyes On Draghi And Whether ECB Will Pull Greek Liquidity

FX UpdateTradingFloor
The USD has either been on the defensive or stuck in the range, depending on the pair in question, as the market can’t seem to find a catalyst to spark a bigger move. Perhaps tonight’s FOMC meeting minutes will provide a shove for the USD view, one way or another.

From the floorTradingFloor
WTI unable to track Brent rise as 3 mil b/d rise in US inventories forecast * Brent/WTI spread at $8/b as European benchmark strengthens on Libya * Energy stocks still taking a hammering despite Brent's 32% rise from Jan lows * Greece concerns weigh on bonds as EURUSD searches for direction * USDJPY volatilities under pressure awaiting "120 trigger," says Larsen * Carlsberg mired in rouble-related issues ahead of Q4 print, says Garnry

Kiinan keskuspankki pysyy rauhallisena inflaatiosta huolimatta | Valuutasta tuli tärkein rahapolitiikan väline | EKP käsittelee Kreikan pankkien hätärahoitusta


Talousnäkymät ja palkanmuodostusVM
Tulo- ja kustannuskehityksen selvitystoimikunnan raportti

Kreikka hakeutunee kohti omaa valuuttaaHenri Myllyniemi / US

Jan Hurri: Kiista Kreikka-kolmosesta ei ole edes alkanutTalSa
Kreikan ja muiden euromaiden pitäisi löytää sopu ainakin kolmeen tärkeään mutta vaikeaan kiistakysymykseen, jos ne haluavat pitää Kreikan pystyssä ja euron ehjänä. Kiista vaikuttaa vaikealta – vaikka kädenvääntö "Kreikka-kolmosesta" ei ole edes alkanut.

Pääoma pakenee Kreikasta – maalle ehdotetaan pääomakontrollejaPS