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Friday, February 13

13th Feb - Good GDP-data from Europe

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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The EU Economic Governance - a Game for Grown-upseuinside

Juncker revives eurozone integration proposalsFT
Juncker again raised eurozone integration proposals at a summit of EU leaders on Thursday night, including the possible creation of a eurozone-only budget and new EU institutions to serve the single currency.

UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index still trending sidewaysUBS

UK MPC Focuses On The Positives Of Cheaper OilAlpha Now

[Feb3] Local Politics Are Fracturing European UnityNYT

Finns Face Grim Choices in a National ElectionBB
All the parties promise budget cuts and reduced benefits

Sweden’s Riksbank takes leap into unknown with rates cutFT

SEK: Pandora’s monetary toolbox prompts changed forecastsNordea
The Riksbank delivered more than expected in February just as it did in July and October last year. Then, the SEK soon appreciated vs the EUR. This time around however, the Riksbank’s opening of Pandora’s monetary toolbox does make a similar outcome less convincing. We change our EUR/SEK forecasts.

  Q4 GDP
GDP up by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU28 – Eurostat
Euro zone fourth-quarter GDP grows by higher than expected 0.3 percent – Reuters
Finland: Q4 flash GDP down – Nordea
Euro area: GDP is picking up, up up… - Nordea
Euro area divergence more about regions than countries – FT
Euro area recovery gains momentum – Danske Bank
Eurozone GDP — Recap – WSJ
GDP growth masks a broken eurozone – The Guardian
Euro-Area Growth Accelerates on Fuel From German Surge: Economy – BB
Germany fuels hopes for eurozone recovery – FT
Merkel keeps up the heat on GreeceFT

EU Stands by Russia Sanctions After Minsk Cease-Fire Deal – BB
Putin Emerges Stronger as Ukraine Deal Averts Escalation Threat – BB
Fighting rages in run-up to Ukraine ceasefire – Reuters
European leaders cautious over ‘Minsk II’ agreement – FT

Don't Make Us Do It: ECB Wants a Political Deal on GreeceBB
The ECB does not want to be pushed into a position where it is making decisions on the future of the Greek banking system -- and the country’s membership of the euro -- without political cover from European capitals.

What the EU summit leaders said - and what they really think – The Telegraph
Greece and Germany Are Working Toward a Compromise – BB
Greece, Germany Said to Offer Compromises on Aid Terms – BB
Greek Gambit Succeeds As Germany Said To Ease Bailout Terms – ZH
Dijsselbloem Pours Cold Water On Greek Compromise – ZH
Eurogroup head 'very pessimistic' for Greek deal by Monday – Reuters
The big Greek debt restructuring scam – Nordea
Greece promises to do 'whatever we can' as debt talks cheer markets – Reuters
Greece, Troika start talks on common reform ground – Reuters
Varoufakis faces challenge of turning games theory into winning strategy – FT
Merkel keeps up the heat on GreeceFT

Money Makes CrazyKrugman / NYT

Here's a $9 Trillion QuestionBB
The dollar debt is just one example of how the Fed’s tightening would ripple through the world economy. From the housing markets in Canada and Hong Kong to capital flows into and out of China and Turkey, the question isn’t whether there will be spillovers -- it’s how big they will be, and where they will hit the hardest.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Douglas’s Take: Oil Plunge Prompts Talk of U.K. Rate Cut * Economists Trim Forecasts of Fed Rate Rises * ECB’s Weidmann: No Immediate Need for Quantitative Easing * Norway’s Central Bank Won’t Follow Sweden’s Moves * Weak Yen Raises Concern Among Some at BOJ

Daily MacroWSJ
Things are looking up for the eurozone. A cease-fire has been struck between Ukraine and its Russian-backed separatists. The conflict between Greece and its rescuers seems likely to be patched up before it goes critical. And the latest GDP data point to revival, however anemic. Infusions of European Central Bank liquidity through its quantitative easing program ought to reinforce the positives. Of course, none of these represent long run solutions.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

An Ukrainian deal * Riksbank goes QE and negative, Pandora’s monetary toolbox undermines the SEK * EUR gains on USD as ECB lends more money to Greece * Greek yields fall massively

Daily ShotTradingFloor
There are two problems with this ceasefire "deal" in Ukraine. First is that the Russian government has no incentives to stabilise the situation. Second, Ukraine's government is about to default. This is not going to end well.

German DAX Rises Above 11,000 For First Time After European GDP Surprises To Upside

FX UpdateTradingFloor
What’s up with the US dollar? Was yesterday’s USD sell-off merely a positioning-inspired train wreck or is a bigger consolidation weaker on the way? The fundamentals don’t support an extension in USD to the weak side.

From the floorTradingFloor
The euro rode a wave of enthusiasm on the Ukraine ceasefire and possible Greek debt resolution hopes to fire a risk-on sentiment that may well get some more fuel from a stellar German Q4 GDP print this morning.

Rahapolitiikan domino jatkuu vielä | EKP:n toimet ja Kreikkahuolet ajavat korkomarkkinoita | Tänään luvassa euroalueen BKT-luvut |

Federalistien pitäisi olla Kreikalle kiitollisiaTyhmyri

Kansa luottaa unioniin ja euroon, talouteen eiVerkkouutiset
Tuoreen eurobarometrin mukaan suomalaisia huolettaa edelleen taloustilanne, mutta enemmistö näkee EU:n tulevaisuuden myönteisenä.

Teollisuuden liikevaihto syys-marrask. -2 % YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen liikevaihto syys-marrask +3,9% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palkkasumma loka-jouluk. +1,3% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Kansantalouden tuotanto pieneni joulukuussa – Tilastokeskus
Joulukuussa 2014 vaihtotase tasapainossa, pääomaa vietiin nettomääräisesti – Tilastokeskus