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Thursday, February 19

19th Feb - Capital controls and proposal salvo

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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European FI Strategy: Not like, but beyond JapanNordea
The days of casually looking towards Japanese levels as a soft benchmark of how low EUR rates can go are over. For longer rates term premiums are gone, and accordingly the flatness of the curve and perhaps in particular the implied real rates are extreme. Payer positions should be kept in real terms right now.

Investment in the Euro Area: Why Has It Been So Weak?iMFdirect
Investment in the euro area, and particularly private investment, has not recovered since the onset of the global financial crisis.

For Greece And Many Others, Economic Reform Is Bad For Your Economic Health - Forbes
Capital Markets Union – good idea, bad nameOpen Europe
A Deeper and Fairer Economic and Monetary UnionEC

Marc Chandler: Keeping Greece in the euro is about far more than moneyFT
Frances Coppola: Why Grexit Would Be A Very Bad IdeaForbes
Greece and educating economists – Simon Wren-Lewis
Europe and Greece Are at War Over Nothing – View / BB
Greece runs up the austerity white flag in BrusselsThe Guardian
Berlin, Why Do You Have a Problem? – Klaus Kastner
'Grexit' would have little impact on other sovereign ratings: S&P – Reuters
Greece had a chance to make the euro zone work better. It blew it – The Economist
Will Greece’s new government finally undermine the Szász axiomBruegel
Europe needs a lasting solution for the Greek problemBruegel

Notenbanker verlieren den Glauben an Griechenland – FAZ
REPORT: The ECB wants Greece to impose capital controls – BI
Leak about capital controls a sure sign the ECB is falling apartBI
ECB denies report on capital controls for GreeceReuters
Capital controls in Greece? A response to Professor Sinn – Macropolis
It’s time to talk about capital controls again – FT

Greece submits request for loan extension from skeptical euro zone – Reuters
Greece Loan Extension Revives Wrangling Over Aid Terms – BB
Greece requests extension, details on conditions remain unclear – Open Europe
Greek request letter for bailout extension – Reuters
Greece Requests 6-month Extension, Denies It Requests "Memorandum" Extension – ZH
Greece requests euro zone loan extension, offers big concessions – Reuters
Greece folds this hand, but long-term game of poker with EZ continues – Open Europe
Greece offers concessions to win euro zone loan extension, Germany objects – Reuters

Rejected: Germany Throws Up Over Greek Extension Proposal – ZH
Germany Rejects Loan Request Saying Greece Must Meet Conditions – BB
Germany rejects Greek bailout extension – FT
Greece Gives Europe A Counter-Ultimatum: Accept Or Reject Our Offer – ZH
Greece responds to German rejection by saying Eurogroup will decide – Reuters
Berlin wants Greece to commit to previous reforms: euro zone official – Reuters
German finance ministry rejects Greek proposal as insufficient – Reuters
Insert German Curse Word Here – Krugman / NYT
Bundesbank President Adds to Criticism of Greeks’ Request – WSJ

QE Details 3: Why buying at negative is not a problem for the ECBDanske Bank
With the deposit rate at -20bp this is set to be a money machine. Even the German Bundesbank should earn a positive return on the purchases, although German government bonds yield negative out to 6Y.

Press release: Financial statements of the ECB for 2014ECB
Consolidated balance sheet of the Eurosystem as at 31 December 2014ECB

ECB Set to Publish Summary of QE Deliberations – BB
ECB to Provide Record of January 22 Meeting Tomorrow – Marc to Market
Account of the monetary policy meeting – ECB
ECB Accounts Show Buying Sovereign Debt Was Only Adequate Option – BB
ECB Releases Minutes From Its Historic January 22 "QE Launch" Policy Meeting – ZH
ECB Record of January Meeting: Few Surprises – Marc to Market
5 Takeaways From the ECB’s January Minutes – WSJ

The U.S. Economy According to the White House in 10 ChartsWSJ

FOMC participants are getting nervous – Danske Bank
Key Passages in the Fed’s January Meeting Minutes – WSJ
First read is a dovish one – TF
Worried About Deflation? Fed Puts Focus on Alternate Price Measures – WSJ
Officials Debated Boosting Cap on Reverse-Repo Program – WSJ
January FOMC Minutes – Tim Duy
The key tail-risk that the FOMC missed – Humble Student
Fed officials worried about hiking rates too soon – Reuters
Fed content to remain patient – Nordea
Fed Minutes Push Out Market Expectations of Fed Hikes – Bespoke

The aging dollar peg: time for the PBC to bid it farewellBruegel

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed Minutes Not So ‘Dovish’ Upon Careful Inspection * Fed’s Rate Debate Heating Up * Fed’s Powell: Leveraged Lending Risks Unlikely to Bring Down Big Banks * Greece Submits Request for Bailout Extension * ECB to Lend Greece €68.3 Billion Through Emergency Credit Facility

Daily MacroWSJ
Greece formally requested an extension of its loan conditions. But has it made enough concessions on its anti-austerity stance for its eurozone creditors to agree? Probably, albeit with face-saving caveats for Greece’s Syriza government, not least the prospect for a longer-term deal on loosening Greek austerity. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank will also be a focus with the first-ever public release of its policy minutes, which ought to shed light on the governing council’s deliberations leading up to the decision to launch quantitative easing. By contrast, the minutes to the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting, released Wednesday, were distinctly steady as she goes.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Slightly dovish FOMC minutes * today ECB minutes, Greece expected to ask for bailout extension * French bond supply * GBP stronger on higher wage

High Noise to Signal Drives MarketsMarc to Market

Daily ShotTradingFloor
The Nikkei 225 is hitting never-before-seen heights as Japanese exports react to the falling yen. From Japan to the Eurozone, currency cuts seem an active trend. Is Beijing watching all this?

Stocks Rebound On Hopes Of Resolution To Greek Impasse

FX UpdateTradingFloor
Today’s first ever European Central Bank minutes will be an interesting follow-on to last night’s dovish Federal Open Market Committee minutes as we get a richer sense of the internal debate at the ECB. Elsewhere, AUD is pressured by S&P ratings agency comments.

From the floorTradingFloor
Shock API build of 14.3m barrels in US sends WTI crude running for cover again * WTI braced for return to sub-$50/barrel levels as API report outstrips estimates * Brent also hits buffers on Saudi Arabia ramp up in production, Libya shipment * FOMC minutes hits USD, but dollar looks set to recover in early morning trading * Alibaba share fall of one-third from highs makes Chinese giant attractive again * Prospect of run on Greek banks grows

Fed miettii | Venäjän talous romahti tammikuussa | EKP julkaisee pöytäkirjan tammikuun kokouksesta

Sotesta täydellinen poliittinen katastrofiIS
Sote on esimerkki siitä, että Suomi on menettänyt päätöksentekokykynsä. Suomi on Pohjolan Kreikka.

Sote kaatuu seuraavalle hallitukselle – keskusta etsii vielä pikasopuaPS

Mitä tehdä Kreikalle?Osmo Soininvaara

Pertti Haaparanta: Kreikka on oikeassaAkateeminen talousblogi

Typeryyden voittokulku – Kreikka ja Saksa ja ehtojen kohtuullistaminenTyhmyri

Valtamedian merkitys yritysten vaikutuskanavana heikentynytYLE
Yhdysvalloissa yhtä toimittajaa kohden on jo 4,6 viestintäalan ammattilaista. Suomessakin organisaatioviestijöiden määrä on kasvanut, eikä media enää näyttele heille läheskään samanlaista roolia kuin ennen. Kyse on mediamurroksesta, sanoo Viestinnän ammattilaisten toimitusjohtaja Elina Melgin.

Suosiiko media vasemmistoa tai oikeistoa?HS
HS:n Mediakone seuraa puolueiden näkyvyyttä

"Me jäämme liittovaltiojunasta tässä kohtaa"HS
Perussuomalaisten nuorisojärjestö kokoontuu Mikkeliin polttamaan EU:n lipun ja jakamaan markkoja

PS-Nuoret vaativat eroa eurosta ja EU:staVerkkouutiset
Perussuomalaiset Nuoret kertoo julkaisevansa ensi sunnuntaina "eurooppapoliittisen" ohjelmansa.

Soini: Vaalilinjauksiamme oli pakko lykätä törkypostin ja uhkausten takiaYLE
Perussuomalaisten puheenjohtaja Timo Soini on niin huolissaan turvallisuustilanteesta, että puolue joutui lykkäämään strategisen ohjelmansa julkistusta. Hän kertoo saaneensa tappo-uhkauksia, mutta ei halua retostella niillä.

Timo Soini toivoo vaalirauhaa – uhkailun pitää loppuaPS

Onko komissiosta EU-sääntelyn karsijaksi?Sampo Terho