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EUROPE
“Be more
like us” say German policymakers to their EU partners. But Philippe Legrain warns
that appearances can be deceptive as Germany suffers from stagnant wages, broken
banks, inadequate investment, poor productivity growth, a dismal demographic
outlook and anaemic output growth
The Eurozone Counterfactual – Macro
Market Musings
Imagine the ECB had not raised its interest rate target in 2008 and 2011,
but had lowered it.
German wage
agreements ought to help prevent deflation
How
Podemos, Tied to Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, Is Gaining Clout in Spain
Government
planned to reinstate punt if euro collapsed – Irish
Times
Contingency
plans by economic council in 2011 included increased security at banks
At 2.7%
y/y, Swedish GDP came in way above our estimate (1.6% y/y), consensus and the Riksbank forecast
(both 1.5% y/y). Full-year GDP for 2014 thus computes to 2.1% y/y, also above
forecasts
GREECE
Icelandic
lesson for stabilising the Greek banks – Fistful
of Euros
A split
into a good domestic bank and a bad foreign one. Some weeks later, capital
controls put in place, forcing investors to stay put and shoulder the risk.
If
Greeks Did This, the Terrible Crisis Would Be Over – Wolf
Richter
If the
Greek people don’t fall for this scheme? Well, um, that begs the question: why
should taxpayers in other countries then
be stupid enough to fall for it?
Gov’t
raises concern over payment to IMF in March – ekathimerini
Greece Warns It May Default On IMF Loan
Next Week – ZH
Bundestag
backs Greek bailout extension – FT
Bundestag
Approves Bailout – ZH
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB
Preview: Waiting for the QE purchases to start – Danske
Bank
We do not
expect a major market impact. There are still unanswered questions: When will
the ECB start buying bonds? Will the ECB buy bonds already yielding negative? How
open ended is the QE programme really? Will National Central Banks be limited
to buying only their own bonds?
ECB
preview: Details, details – Nordea
The ECB’s
meeting next week cannot possibly match all the excitement involved in January,
but will still be worth following. You should not expect too many further QE
details to be revealed, but a few will be in store. Also the market response
should be rather muted this time, but the market moves following the actual
start of the purchases will be more interesting.
UNITED STATES
Why
Isn’t the Fed More Worried About Inflation Expectations? – WSJ
What
Will Make Fed’s Yellen ‘Reasonably Confident’ in Inflation Rebound? – WSJ
ASIA
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Role of New York Fed Stirs Divisions in Central Bank * Fed’s Williams
Sees Door Open for Interest-Rate Increases Starting in June * Bank of Japan’s
Kuroda Still Seeking Blastoff * BOE’s Shafik Sees Rate Rise as Likely Next Move
* China’s Yuan Slumps on Growth Worries
Daily
Macro – WSJ
A
surprising improvement in the economic outlook for Europe—highlighted by GDP revisions out earlier today and
German parliamentary approval of the agreement to revise the EU’s bailout
program with Greece—mean that the prevailing concern
over global demand could shift to China
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
German CPI to fall further * Expect downward
revisions to US Q4 GDP * Further pressure on EUR/USD * Danish central bank
again chooses a zero-sale auction
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
to Market
Dollar
Can't Extend Yesterday's Gains, Month-end Consolidation
Daily
Shot – TF
The euro
has sunken dramatically lower but economic and credit conditions in the
Eurozone are showing signs of improvement. With money supply growth higher and
consumer confidence returning, the only problem here continues to be Greece.
US Open – ZH
Futures
Fractionally Red Ahead Of Pre-Weekend "Nasdaq 5000" Push
FX
Update – TF
The USD
reversed back to the strong side yesterday, a critical move in many USD pairs,
where the dollar bulls can now take some heart. Today’s closing levels will be
an interesting setup for next week’s action and heavy US economic calendar.
From the
Floor – TF
Deflation
rears its ugly head once more with the latest CPI numbers out of Japan clearly showing that the
government's efforts to boost the economy haven't met much success. European
benchmark bonds, meanwhile, are doing great ahead of the ECB's QE. In the FX
sphere, the dollar is in demand and in equities, Airbus is flying high on its
latest earnings report. Crude oil is still in the doldrums and the increasing
contango is getting too burdensome for many ETF investors.
Daily
Newsletter – TF
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
The
internet stays open. Net neutrality rule is a victory for everyone
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Suomi ei ole enää surkein | Hinnat laskevat - nyt
ostoksille! | Päivän tärkein datajulkistus on Saksan inflaatio
Euron pelastustalkoot – Henri
Myllyniemi
Pääkirjoitus: Kreikka pysyy lyhyessä liekanarussa – HS
Ilmarinen: Suomalaisen työelämän on muututtava – Verkkouutiset
Tyly väite suomalaisministeristä kulissien takaa:
”Herätti muissa raivoa” – IS
Vihreiden Osmo Soininvaara arvioi uutuuskirjassaan
kylmänviileästi hallituksen ja muiden puolueiden epäonnistumiset. Erityisen
karua palautetta saavat demarit.
Osakeasuntojen hinnat laskivat tammikuussa – Tilastokeskus
Ekonomisti: Asuntohintojen lasku voi jatkua ainakin
alkuvuoden – Verkkouutiset
Hyytynyt tilanne asuntomarkkinoilla jatkui edelleen
tammikuussa, kun asuntojen hinnat laskivat sekä pääkaupunkiseudulla että
muualla maassa.