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Friday, February 27

27th Feb - Europe positive ahead of ECB-week

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Germany’s sickly economyEurope’s World
“Be more like us” say German policymakers to their EU partners. But Philippe Legrain warns that appearances can be deceptive as Germany suffers from stagnant wages, broken banks, inadequate investment, poor productivity growth, a dismal demographic outlook and anaemic output growth

The Eurozone CounterfactualMacro Market Musings
Imagine the ECB had not raised its interest rate target in 2008 and 2011, but had lowered it.

Tony Barber: Shafts of sunlight amid Europe’s economic gloomFT
German wage agreements ought to help prevent deflation

Far-left movement challenges mainstream in MadridWSJ
How Podemos, Tied to Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, Is Gaining Clout in Spain

Government planned to reinstate punt if euro collapsedIrish Times
Contingency plans by economic council in 2011 included increased security at banks

Swedish GDP 2014 - What a shockerDanske Bank
At 2.7% y/y, Swedish GDP came in way above our estimate (1.6% y/y), consensus and the Riksbank forecast (both 1.5% y/y). Full-year GDP for 2014 thus computes to 2.1% y/y, also above forecasts

Icelandic lesson for stabilising the Greek banksFistful of Euros
A split into a good domestic bank and a bad foreign one. Some weeks later, capital controls put in place, forcing investors to stay put and shoulder the risk.

If Greeks Did This, the Terrible Crisis Would Be OverWolf Richter
If the Greek people don’t fall for this scheme? Well, um, that begs the question: why should taxpayers in other countries  then be stupid enough to fall for it?
Gov’t raises concern over payment to IMF in March – ekathimerini
Greece Warns It May Default On IMF Loan Next Week – ZH
IMF’s Christine Lagarde shows tough love to Greece over bailout – FT
Varoufakis: Creative vagueness, VAT and taking a pee in GermanyProtothema
Bundestag backs Greek bailout extension – FT
Bundestag Approves Bailout – ZH

ECB Preview: Waiting for the QE purchases to startDanske Bank
We do not expect a major market impact. There are still unanswered questions: When will the ECB start buying bonds? Will the ECB buy bonds already yielding negative? How open ended is the QE programme really? Will National Central Banks be limited to buying only their own bonds?

ECB preview: Details, detailsNordea
The ECB’s meeting next week cannot possibly match all the excitement involved in January, but will still be worth following. You should not expect too many further QE details to be revealed, but a few will be in store. Also the market response should be rather muted this time, but the market moves following the actual start of the purchases will be more interesting.

Why Isn’t the Fed More Worried About Inflation Expectations?WSJ

What Will Make Fed’s Yellen ‘Reasonably Confident’ in Inflation Rebound?WSJ

Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Still Seeking BlastoffWSJ

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Role of New York Fed Stirs Divisions in Central Bank * Fed’s Williams Sees Door Open for Interest-Rate Increases Starting in June * Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Still Seeking Blastoff * BOE’s Shafik Sees Rate Rise as Likely Next Move * China’s Yuan Slumps on Growth Worries

Daily MacroWSJ
A surprising improvement in the economic outlook for Europe—highlighted by GDP revisions out earlier today and German parliamentary approval of the agreement to revise the EU’s bailout program with Greece—mean that the prevailing concern over global demand could shift to China

Danske DailyDanske Bank

German CPI to fall further * Expect downward revisions to US Q4 GDP * Further pressure on EUR/USD * Danish central bank again chooses a zero-sale auction

Daily FX Comment Marc to Market
Dollar Can't Extend Yesterday's Gains, Month-end Consolidation

Daily ShotTF
The euro has sunken dramatically lower but economic and credit conditions in the Eurozone are showing signs of improvement. With money supply growth higher and consumer confidence returning, the only problem here continues to be Greece.

Futures Fractionally Red Ahead Of Pre-Weekend "Nasdaq 5000" Push

FX UpdateTF
The USD reversed back to the strong side yesterday, a critical move in many USD pairs, where the dollar bulls can now take some heart. Today’s closing levels will be an interesting setup for next week’s action and heavy US economic calendar.

From the FloorTF
Deflation rears its ugly head once more with the latest CPI numbers out of Japan clearly showing that the government's efforts to boost the economy haven't met much success. European benchmark bonds, meanwhile, are doing great ahead of the ECB's QE. In the FX sphere, the dollar is in demand and in equities, Airbus is flying high on its latest earnings report. Crude oil is still in the doldrums and the increasing contango is getting too burdensome for many ETF investors.

Daily NewsletterTF

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
The internet stays open. Net neutrality rule is a victory for everyone

Suomi ei ole enää surkein | Hinnat laskevat - nyt ostoksille! | Päivän tärkein datajulkistus on Saksan inflaatio

Euron pelastustalkootHenri Myllyniemi

Pääkirjoitus: Kreikka pysyy lyhyessä liekanarussaHS

Ilmarinen: Suomalaisen työelämän on muututtavaVerkkouutiset

Tyly väite suomalaisministeristä kulissien takaa: ”Herätti muissa raivoa”IS
Vihreiden Osmo Soininvaara arvioi uutuuskirjassaan kylmänviileästi hallituksen ja muiden puolueiden epäonnistumiset. Erityisen karua palautetta saavat demarit.

Osakeasuntojen hinnat laskivat tammikuussaTilastokeskus
Ekonomisti: Asuntohintojen lasku voi jatkua ainakin alkuvuodenVerkkouutiset
Hyytynyt tilanne asuntomarkkinoilla jatkui edelleen tammikuussa, kun asuntojen hinnat laskivat sekä pääkaupunkiseudulla että muualla maassa.