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Monday, February 23

23rd Feb - Still Greece, Yellen's testimony ahead

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Clive Crook: Who Made Germany Europe's Boss?View BB
Heaven knows, Europe needs stronger leadership -- but Germany, at the moment, looks poorly qualified. Its policy makers are unenlightened on the macroeconomics of debt and deflation, and its officials seem unable to exercise influence with restraint or respect for all EU citizens.

The Pope's Revealing Gift to Merkel and the Future of Europe - Marc to Market

Europe’s proposed capital markets unionvox
The proposed EU capital markets union aims to revitalise Europe’s economy by creating efficient funding channels between providers of loanable funds and firms best placed to use them. This column argues that a successful union would deliver investment, innovation, and growth, but it depends on overcoming difficult regulatory challenges. A successful union would also change the nature of systemic risk in Europe.

Leaving the EU? [Video] – LSE
Has the European Union reached the end of the road in the UK? The country has taken on a competence review aimed at deciding exactly what needs to be European and what is best left at - or taken - home. Whatever the outcome of the election in May 2015, the subject of EU renegotiation is unlikely to go away.

Sweden: The Mistake Yellen Wants to Avoid BB
Swedish policy makers were forced to take unprecedented measures this month to shore up inflation

Norway faces up to prospect of North Sea slowdownFT
After a plunge in oil prices, policy makers and analysts in Oslo are now cautioning that this gilded era is coming to an end.

Why Will Deutsche Bank Fail the Fed’s Stress Tests?WSJ
Qualitative aspects including how they measure and predict potential losses and risks. But at least it’s expected to meet quantitative requirements, including equity capital, liquidity ratio or leverage ratio.

 How The ECB's Previous Actions Are Assuring The Failure Of Its Current ActionsZH 

Ten days that shook the euro; how Greece came to the brink – Reuters
The EU’s deal on Greece shows that Europe remains wedded to the politics of austerity – LSE
Eurozone awaits Greek reform list – Reuters
Defeat of Varoufakis will embolden the Eurocrats to con Cameron – Daniel Hannan
Greek deal leaves Germans unhappy, tough sell for Syriza – TF

Greece readies reform promises – Reuters
Was it worth it? Concessions to Greece relative to draft of Feb-16 – Norbert Häring
Strategists: Tough Negotiations and Brinkmanship Will Be Back – WSJ
Troika Not Happy with Initial Draft of Greek Reforms – Yves Smith
Greece readies list of reforms for Eurozone – Open Europe

Grexit: Was Germany ready to pull the trigger? – Open Europe
Tsipras Tamed as Economists Declare Greece Loses Austerity Fight – BB
What Greece’s Deal Means, and Where the Obstacles LieBB Brief
Who Hurts Most If Greece Defaults – not GermanyBB Brief
Greek funny money: no thanksFT

Deutsche Bank’s Timeline Of 6 Year Greek Tragedy – ZH
Deutsche Bank: Four more tests – BI
A Greek ‘Deal’ Does Not Solve the Eurozone’s Woes – WSJ
Greece Has to Get Eurogroup Approval for Reforms; Meeting Set for Tuesday – Yves Smith
Yellen Heading to the SenateTim Duy
Yellen Faces Congress Amid Direst Threat to Fed Since Dodd-FrankBB
Currency Wars: When zero is too muchTF
John J Hardy: It's relatively simple – we can't all get a weaker currency * Negative interest rates are a sign of policy insanity * Deflation will deepen should China decide to devalue * Currency war looks set to continue....until reality kicks in

FX: the EUR$-puzzleNordea
The EUR got stuck despite better data, and Greece is only part of the story. Fed hike threat in disinflation is USD-positive - will Yellen hint change this week?

Gavyn Davies: The Fed’s global responsibilitiesFT
Total dollar credit to the EM non financial sector has risen from $6 trillion to $9 trillion in the past five years. About 80 percent of this consists of dollar lending sourced from outside the US itself, and it is not confined to traditionally “dollarised” economies.

Bridging the growth gapAFME
Investor views on European and US capital markets and how they drive investment and economic growth

Yield Forecast UpdateDanske Bank
Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) has delivered a series of four rate cuts to fend off the appreciation pressure on the DKK. This has fuelled a significant decline in Danish rates. Meanwhile, core bond yields have pushed higher. As we have projected, the move higher has been biggest in the US, while German Bund yields are still close to lows.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Questions for the World’s Leading Central Bankers * Deutsche Bank, Santander Likely to Fail Fed Stress Test * St. Louis Fed’s Bullard Favors Banishing ‘Patient’ Stance * Philippine Central Bank Sees No Need to Reverse Policy Tightening

Daily MacroWSJ
Greece-EU Deal Gives Markets a Boost World-Wide: In a nutshell, the can’s been kicked down the road yet again – and that’s allowing investors to take the issue off their radar for the time being – but the eurozone’s fundamental problems are far from resolved.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Ifo today, Yellen in Congress tomorrow Yields higher on agreement with Greece USD waiting for Yellen’s blessing

The Dollar Pops To Start WeekMarc to Market

Daily ShotTF
A major shift in domestic wages and inflation indicators is needed – as well as a more stable international economic picture – in order for this dovish US Federal Reserve to move on rates.

Initial "Greek Euphoria" Ends As Market Digests Road Ahead For Europe

FX UpdateTF
With Greece headlines mercifully now out of the way for at least a while, we can get back to focusing on Fed policy signals this week, as Janet Yellen will make her thoughts on the US economy and the Fed’s monetary policy known before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.

From the floorTF
There is plenty of room for a surprise either way when the US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen testifies to the Senate on monetary policy on Tuesday and Wednesday – but mostly to the hawkish side.

Daily NewsletterTF
It finally looks like the Greece story could be moving towards the rearview mirror at least from a forex perspective and it's Yellen's testimony on Wednesday and China's return to the markets that should set the tone for the week.

Martin Sandbu’s Free Lunch: Four misperceptions about GreeceFT
There is no agreement yet, and Grexit need not happen without one

Yellen puhuu kongressissa | Kreikka on selkä seinää vasten | Tänään saadaan Saksan talouselämän luottamusindeksi

Luovan tuhon tie ulos talouskriisistäMika Maliranta / Tieto & Trendit

Teollisuus pelkää uutta EU-laskua - Soini: Aivan kamalaaMTV
Suomen teollisuus pelkää jälleen uutta jättilaskua EU:sta. Isot EU-jäsenmaat ovat tiukentamassa päästökauppaa ja aikaistamassa muutoksia jo vuoteen 2017.

Ben Zyskowiczilta raju säästölista – "mikään luku ei ole ravisteltu hihasta"Verkkouutiset
Suurimmat säästöt tulevat Kela-tukien indeksien jäädyttämisestä sekä työajan pidennyksestä vartilla.

Zyskowicz varoittaa plasebosäästöistä - hienoja tavoitteita vailla konkretiaaVerkkouutiset
Kansanedustaja Ben Zyskowiczin (kok.) mukaan hyviltä kuulostavia säästökohteita heitellään ilmassa kevein perustein.

Miksi Saksaa kunnioitetaan?Raha ja Talous

Pääkirjoitus: Kreikka ei voinut voittaa: rahaton maa ei ole vapaaHS
Perjantaina Brysselissä järjestettyä euromaiden valtiovarainministereiden kokousta seurattiin kuin pokeriottelua. Kumpi voittaa, Kreikka vai muut euromaat? Kuka nokittaa seuraavaksi, vai katsotaanko kortit?

Pääkirjoitus: Valtio myy lypsävää, ostaa tilalle mahoaHS
Viime aikoina Suomen taloutta on verrattu Kreikan talouteen. On esimerkiksi katsottu, että bruttokansantuotteen kasvua koskevissa oletuksissa Suomi kuuluu Kreikan kanssa euromaiden häntäpäähän ja että molemmissa maissa on tarvetta talouden tasapainotuksiin.

PS-nuorten Eurooppapoliittinen ohjelmaPS Nuoret
Itsenäinen Suomi kansakuntien Euroopassa – oma valuutta, oma päätösvalta