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Tuesday, February 3

3rd Feb - EURUSD reversal, Greece demands GDP-linkers

Previously on MoreLiver’s:
W/E: Weekly Support

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Ireland urged to play ‘hardball’ to get a deal on legacy bank debtIrish Times
Citigroup economist Willem Buiter suggests Government should withhold support for euro area bank resolution authority

Germany’s 10-Year Bond Yield Falls Below Japan’s for First TimeBB

Déjà vu: have Juncker’s tax reforms already been debated?FT

Norway’s Krone Puppeteer Achieves Inflation as Others FailBB

Only one thing that can save Russia’s economyWaPo
Russia doesn't have an economy so much as an oil exporting business that subsidizes everything else. But it can't subsidize much when oil prices are only $55-a-barrel.

BOE’s Kohn Backs Carney in Airing Eurozone ConcernsWSJ
S&P Downgrades Numerous European Banks, Warns Deutsche Bank May Be NextZH

John J Hardy: Not all pegs are created equal – TradingFloor
Trying to Wrap Your Head around the SNB and Denmark? – Marc to Market
Swiss Acclimatize to New World After Losing Franc Shelter – BB
Switzerland Rejoins Currency Wars – View / BB
The Danish peg: central bank sold DKK 106.5bn in January – TradingFloor

Greece finance minister unveils plan to end debt stand-off – FT
Greece No Longer Demands Debt Write Off, Proposes Debt Exchange Instead – ZH
Greece Said to Drop Writedown Request Amid EU Opposition – BB
Athens’ escape from troika: Syriza right to deal directly with states – FT
Q&A: Can Athens re-write the bailout rules? – FT

Greek stand-off puts Draghi on the political stage – FT
Gideon Rachman: Dangerous cracks at Europe’s centre – FT
Greece outlines debt 'menu' in bid to win over skeptical euro zone – Reuters
David Marsh: The Varoufakis approach: charm, charisma and venom – MarketWatch
Varoufakis Is Brilliant. So Why Does He Make Everyone So Nervous? – BB

Germany will have to yield in dangerous game of chicken with GreeceThe Telegraph
Krugman: Syriza is making sense - who’s unreasonable now? – NYT
Duncal Weldon: Clausewitz & Jomini, Greece & the ECB – medium
Greece’s Good Idea: Indexing Its Debt Repayments to Economic Growth – PIIE
Making sense of the latest Greek drama – Humble Student

Street Cautious on Talk of Greek Debt Plan – WSJ
Greece FinMin: No U-Turn, Write-Off Can Occur In Several Methods – ZH
Joseph E. Stiglitz: A Greek Morality Tale – Project Syndicate
Germany Throws Up All Over Varoufakis Proposal, Calls Plan "Half-Baked" – ZH
Weidmann should be promoting (some of) Varoufakis’ ideas – Lars Christensen

Can Greece become competitive overnight? – Bruegel
Syriza may be doing the Eurozone a big favour – Sony Kapoor
Who Owns Greek Debt And When Is It Due?ZH
Greece alone cannot convince Europe to pursue a different courseEuropp / LSE
Merkel Expects Greek Funding Talks to Drag On for Months – BB

Tsipras pulls strings as Varoufakis performs policy somersaults – FT
A major step towards a Greek compromise – Bruegel
Stephen Pope: Greece's debt plan deserves a dressing down – TradingFloor
Greek debt swap plan gets cool euro zone reception – Reuters
Greek Default Options – Econospeak

First Germany, Now ECB Rejects "Latest Greek Bailout Plan" – ZH
For Greece, GDP-linked Debt May Be More Curiousity Than Cure – WSJ

ECB considering leaving troika, Germany's Handelsblatt saysekathimerini 
Independence of monetary policy and the banking unionBIS
Speech by Mr Erkki Liikanen, Governor of the Bank of Finland, at the Lamfalussy Lecture Conference, organised by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), Budapest, 2 February 2015.

Lew: Global Economy Can’t Depend Just on the U.S. for Growth WSJ

Monitor: US labour market keeps improvingDanske Bank

[slides] The Great Recession and aftermathPaul Krugman

Fed’s Bullard Calls For Breaking Up Nation’s Biggest Banks WSJ
Bullard warned Tuesday regulatory changes haven’t solved the too-big-to-fail problem in banking, adding that he’d support a break-up of the biggest banks in the U.S.

Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure DivesTim Duy
Below trend inflation as the economy nears full-employment is a very uncomfortable position for the Federal Reserve. It will be interesting to see how Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen navigates these waters at the upcoming Congressional testimony.

Statement by Governor: Monetary Policy Decision – RBA
An Australian Front in the Currency War – WSJ
Australia Follows Rate Cut Trend – WSJ
Australia's RBA cuts rates to record low 2.25 pct – Reuters
Hardy: AUD set to weaken further – TradingFloor
Asia sags on growth worries, Aussie slides as RBA eases – Reuters
Australia shares rally to 7-year high after rate cut – Reuters

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: New York Fed Tries to Address Plumbing Problems in Fed Funds Market * Fed Survey Finds Some Banks Easing Mortgage Credit * ECB’s Nowotny: Inflation Could Remain Below Zero For Some Months to Come * Australia Cuts Interest Rates to Record Low * Inflation at Five-Year Lows in Developed Economies

Daily MacroWSJ
A surprise rate cut by Australia’s central bank and a sharp fall in both the eurozone’s producer price index and a consumer price gauge produced by the OECD have offered a telling reminder that falling commodity prices are wreaking havoc with measures of inflation world-wide and creating dilemmas for policy makers.

Unprecedented Danish interventions * Scandi yields recorded large falls * Scandies diverge

RBA Joins Parade and Market Likes Greek ProposalsMarc to Market
The 25 bp rate cut was not a major surprise but it did catch many a bit off-guard as recent data and the pace of the Australian dollar's decline had prompted many to push out the expectation to next month… for the first time since the election, there is greater confidence in our assessment that the basis of a compromise exists and that talk about a Grexit is premature. 

Daily ShotTradingFloor
Interest rates are changed fast these days. There is a downward trend in Europe. Long-term bond yield in Greek in the meanwhile remain elevated and equities there were up amid a debt swap suggestion.

Futures Rebound Continues As "Greece Concession" Story Picked Up By European Desks, Oil Rises

FX Update: AUD down under after RBA cutTradingFloor
The Australian dollar was whacked to new lows for the cycle as the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates and dovish guidance were clearly not in the price. Elsewhere, the mischievous JPY pushed stronger across the board overnight, taking GBPJPY below a key level .

Japanese 10-Year Yield Rises about German 10-Year YieldMarc to Market

Is the Dollar's Rise Really Perilous?Marc to Market

Vain tilastoero voi vauhdittaa Suomen talouskasvua | Jenkkiteollisuuden luottamus ampui yli | USA:sta saadaan joulukuun tehdastilaukset

Roger Wessman: Suomalainen euro vahvistunut Marketnoze
Euroalueen talousnäkymiä on parantanut euron viimeisen vuoden merkittävä heikkeneminen. Suomen näkökulmasta tilanne on toinen. Painotettuna eri maiden osuudella Suomen viennistä euro on itse asiassa vahvistunut viimeisen vuoden aikana. Syynä on tietysti ennen kaikkea ruplan romahtaminen, mutta myös naapurimaidemme kruunujen arvon kehitys.

Pääkirjoitus: Tuleeko Kreikasta Euroopan Kuuba?IL

ECR:n entinen puheenjohtaja: Euro ei voi toimiaPS
Perussuomalaiset isännöi parhaillaan europarlamenttiryhmänsä ECR:n kokousta Helsingin Kalastajatorpalla.

Tilanne ja näkymät 1/2015: Kasvu käynnistyy investoinneilla – Teknologiateollisuus
Kannattavuus romahtanut – TT: sääntelyn purkamista ja verokannustimia – Verkkouutiset
Sääntö-Suomi saa huutia - "kannattavuus suorastaan romahtanut" – TE
TT katsoo Viroon: yritysten voittoa pitäisi verottaa vain kerran – Verkkouutiset
Teknologiateollisuus: Iso kuva yhä vaikea – KL

Maailman mielivaltaisin vekotin – Eija-Riitta Korhola / IL
Pääkirjoitus: Arvostavatko mepit työtään? – IL
Pääkirjoitus: Päähallituspuolue syystäkin hädissään – IS
Pääkirjoitus: Punamulta kera perussuomalaisten todennäköisintä – Karjalainen

Perussuomalaisten ikkunaan graffiti: ”Tätä voi pitää vaalirauhan julistuksena” – PS
Perussuomalaisten graffiti töhrittiin heti – "Menee ihan absurdiksi tämä touhu" – YLE
Kulttuuriministeri joutui korjaamaan PS-nuorten avustuksia – PS

Suomi vastaa vaikeuksiin sulkeutumalla – HS
Onko Suomi sulkeutumassa, Antti Blåfield? – Professorin ajatuksia
Maahanmuuttaja ei ole vain talouden numero – Suomenmaa