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Saturday, June 15

15th Jun - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

G8-summit, Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting, Japan’s Abe holds two speeches, and has bilateral meetings with Germany’s Merkel, Europe has bond auctions, Greece downgraded to emerging market status, IMF publishes its latest review on Spain, Europe gets the flash Markit purchasing manager indices.

Additionally, I expect rumors from the German constitutional court’s hearings on the ECB’s OMT-program, Portugal stated it would be interested in applying for the OMT, markets are nervous.

Own feeling? Markets up before the Fed, down after the Fed.
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Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Markets – Between The Hedges

Weekly Scoreboard – Between The Hedges
US market portrait – Portfolio Probe
Europe: Stocks Drop Fourth Week-In-A-Row; Worst In 12 Months – ZH
US: Stocks Slide, VIX Ends At Highest Weekly Close In 2013 – ZH

The Economist’s Weeklies:

The Weekenderbeyondbrics / FT

The Weekenderalphaville / FT

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

Week in Review: Waiting to Be King of GoldmanDealBook / NYT
In the glow of television, many messages. | The stimulus comment that agitated traders. | To billionaire’s failed deal, add rebuke from S.E.C. | Trader covets Goldman office where a friend is sitting tight. | In a shift, interest rates are rising.

Schedule for WeekCalculated Risk
The key event this week will be the FOMC statement and press conference on Wednesday.  No changes in policy are expected, but Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected to reiterate that rates will stay low for a long long time. There are three key housing reports that will be released this week, housing starts on Tuesday, homebuilder confidence survey on Monday, and existing home sales on Thursday. For manufacturing, the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed June surveys will be released this week.  For prices, CPI will be released on Tuesday.

A week to reckon withMacroScope / Reuters
G8 leaders’ summit, Fed, Abe, European bond auctions, Greece, IMF reviews Spain.

Economic CalendarHandelsbanken (pdf)

Podcast: MoneyBeat WeekWSJ
What Fed Should Do at Next Week’s Meeting

S&P 500 Earnings Week AheadReuters

Wall Street Week AheadReuters
Stock investors eager to hear from the Federal Reserve about its plans for continuing economic stimulus may get some soothing words from the U.S. central bank next week.

(video) Europe Week AheadReuters
Markets wait for big Ben to chime in

(video) Asia Week Ahead: – Reuters

(video) US Week AheadReuters
Investors to dissect every Fed word

Weekly PreviewBNY Mellon
Noted Fed watcher, Jon Hilsenrath is not alone in feeling that Ben Bernanke may look to reassure over the Fed’s measured approach to policy tightening.

Weekly Focus Danske Bank (pdf)
US: The Fed meeting gives Ben Bernanke an opportunity to guide market expectations. Markit PMI will provide new data on the extent of the soft patch. Euro area: main release next week is flash PMIs for June. We expect improvements in both service and manufacturing PMIs. China: There have recently been conflicting signals from PMIs, so the flash estimate for HSBC manufacturing PMI for June is key to watch.

Week Ahead: 15-21 June 2013Nordea (pdf)
US: The FOMC meeting is coming up next week and recent article by Jon Hilsenrath suggests markets may have gone ahead of themselves in recent rates sell-off. Euro area: PMIs from Germany, France and the Euro zone is on the agenda, with ZEW as an appetizer.

Global Macro Views Danske Bank (pdf)
US: economy is working its way through a soft patch due to substantial fiscal tightening. Euro area: finally showing signs of improvement in hard data. China: continues to disappoint and we have revised our growth forecast down

Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed Change Course?A Dash of Insight

FX Positioning and Technical OutlookMarc to Market
Downside Risk for the Dollar?

Yield Forecast Update: Volatility is backDanske Bank (pdf)
Discussions about the Fed scaling down asset purchases later in the year have fuelled a sell-off in the core bond markets and led to a rise in volatility over the past month. European markets have not been shielded from the increase in rates, despite a weak economic outlook and despite the ECB keeping its options open for further easing.

Weekly Credit UpdateDanske Bank (pdf)
Market-maker ability and willingness to absorb the current sell-off in cash credit is limited and consequently secondary market liquidity is falling and spreads are moving wider at a decent pace. Particularly the high yield market has corrected and the Crossover index has widened some 50 bp in just two weeks, currently trading around 450 bp. Cash HY and subordinated bank paper have also experienced meaningful price corrections as of late.

EMEA WeeklyDanske Bank (pdf)
Over the past three or four weeks we have seen a very sharp sell-off in Emerging Markets
– equities, fixed income and FX. Even though there are country-specific events such as the recent political unrest in Turkey, there is no doubt that the primary trigger for the EM sell-off has been concerns about the outlook for monetary policy – in particular in the US and Japan and to a lesser extent the euro zone.

Emerging Markets CalendarHandelsbanken (pdf)
China's HSBC PMI for the manufacturing sector likely remained subdued in June in the midst of tight liquidity in the banking system. Inflationary pressures remain high in Brazil, but moderating food prices are providing some relief.

Emerging: Week Aheadbeyondbrics / FT
IEA gas report, Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro receives audience with Pope Francis in Rome, and the Iranian presidential election second round. Plus the main economic events: HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI, Russian GDP, and Central Bank of Turkey holds it’s monetary policy committee meeting.

EU Agenda: Trade and tax issues  euobserver
EU-US trade relations will take centre stage at a meeting of eight of the world's wealthiest nations in Northern Ireland on Monday.

EU Week Ahead: June 17 – 21WSJ
Top EU officials will travel to Northern Ireland for a G8 meeting and EU finance ministers will try to sign off on a long-awaited framework for shuttering failing banks.

Economic Calendar – Forexpros
Economic Calendar –
Monthly Economic Calendar –
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar –


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