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Tuesday, June 4

4th Jun - EU Open

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: U.S. Stocks Rebound As Bulls Relish Weak Data – WSJ

Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Markets Expected to Open Stronger – WSJ

3 Numbers to Watch: UK Construction PMI, US Trade, USDJPYTradingFloor
Today’s update on the UK Markit/CIPS Construction PMI will be closely watched for signs of revival in this sector. The US trade balance is also scheduled for release and USDJPY remains the week's main clue for (re)assessing doubts about “Abenomics”.

Market Preview: EU producer prices and US trade balance eyedTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open higher Tuesday. With a light economic calendar today, investors would keep an eye on the EU PPI which is likely to show a slower pace of annual rise in April while the US might post a wider trade deficit in April.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
We will continue to scrutinise Fed speeches for signs of an imminent scale down of Fed’s asset purchases...If UK PMI for the construction sector also comes out stronger than expected, it will
add further ammunition to the argument that additional easing will not be needed in the UK.

USA:sta lisää pettymyksiä * Syöksyn hidastuminen pitää EKP:n asemissa * EURUSD korkeimilleen yli kolmeen viikkoon

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Osakemarkkinoille eilen suotuisia lukuja ostopäällikköindekseistä, USA:n hidastuminen tukee FED:n elvytystä ja euroalueen paraneminen pienentää globaalin talouden riskejä. USA:n rahapoliittisen elvytyksen kannalta perjantain työllisyyslukemat entistäkin mielenkiintoisempia. Osakefutuurit ylös, indikoiden nousuavausta OMX HEX:iin.

IMF halves German 2013 growth forecastThe Telegraph
Germany's 2013 growth prospects have been cut in half by the International Monetary Fund, as it warned that the outlook for Europe's strongest economy could worsen if a eurozone recovery fails to materialise.

Slovenia Shows Why the EU Shouldn’t Discard AusterityView / BB
If there is no real pressure to finally clean up the banking sector and push through the sale of state assets, the flow dynamics may keep worsening public debt, government deficits and bad bank loans. Now that the EU has loosened fiscal targets, it’s hard to see where the pressure will come from.

Reviving a European democracyReuters
Before they helped to create a world of rising prosperity, Europeans developed two powerful streams of political thought that ultimately allowed for the peaceful governance of their societies.

Chart Of The Day: The Turkish UprisingZH
Stratfor: The largest protests, in Istanbul and Izmir, brought out predominantly young protesters in the tens of thousands. These protests will be highly significant if they grow to the hundreds of thousands, include a wider demographic and geographically extend to areas with traditionally strong support for the ruling party.

Defiant Erdogan denounces riots in Turkish cities – Reuters
PM Erdogan sees himself leading 'Turkish Spring' – Reuters
Turkish protesters accuse media of ignoring unrest – Reuters
Slideshow: Turkish protests escalate – Reuters

More Tapering TalkTim Duy’s Fed Watch
Fed is looking to pull back on asset purchases.  They expect the data to give them room to do so.

Let 'er rip, Mr BernankeFree exchange / The Economist
Better American fundamentals should make monetary policy more effective and give the Fed more room to ease, but the Fed instead seems to want to use them as an excuse to tighten (or to passively accept tightening). That's not good.

Fiscal Headwinds: Is the Other Shoe About to Drop?S.F. FED
Federal fiscal policy during the recession was abnormally expansionary by historical standards. However, over the past 2½ years it has become unusually contractionary as a result of several deficit reduction measures passed by Congress. During the next three years, we estimate that federal budgetary policy could restrain economic growth by as much as 1 percentage point annually beyond the normal fiscal drag that occurs during recoveries.

RBA Holds Key Rate at Record-Low 2.75% After Aussie WeakensBB
Australia’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate at a record low, saying it has room to cut further and judged that the nation’s exchange rate remains high even after the biggest monthly tumble since 2011.

The most depressing jobs chart in a long timeWonkblog / WP
Since 2007, the ILO notes, there's been a big trade-off between more employment and higher job quality in most developed countries.

Behavioral Portfolio Management: An Alternative to Modern Portfolio TheoryCFA Institute

Sasi kertoi pelostaan: Tämä voi viedä Suomelta Kreikka-vakuudetIL
Eduskunnan valtiovarainvaliokunnan puheenjohtaja Kimmo Sasi (kok) pitää mahdollisena, että euromaat joutuvat antamaan anteeksi Kreikan lainoja.

Suomen Pankin ex-johtaja: Euro uppoaa kuin uppotukkiKL
Europeli poikki mahdollisimman pian. Rahoituskonsultti, Suomen Pankin johtajistoon kuulunut Heikki Koskenkylä ehdottaa Suomen eroa euroalueesta.