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Friday, June 21

21st Jun - Weekender: Best of the Week

The best articles from the ending week. Last week’s ‘best’ here.

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Previously on MoreLiver’s:

The reluctant hegemonThe Economist
Germany must start taking the lead if Europe’s battered economies are to recover, but is unwilling, due to the weight of history, the perception that the “laziness of southern Europeans” is the cause of the eurozone crisis, and the strategic approach of guiding “from the rear”.

Mervyn King on the solutions to the eurozone crisisOpen Europe
The FT has just posted an interesting and lengthy interview with outgoing Bank of England Governor Mervyn King (pictured), conducted by the FT’s Martin Wolf.

Macro digest: European PMIs better, but still badTradingFloor
Juhani Huopainen: While the Markit PMI for Europe improved even more than was expected, the numbers are still in contractionary territory. The disappointing German manufacturing sector suggests weakness is to continue.

Germany’s Schaeuble Says ‘Important Step’ Taken on Banking UnionBB
Comments on the future direct recapitalization of banks by the ESM, the Single Supervisory Mechanism for European banks, the German legislative process for the transfer of banking supervision powers and the domestic political situation in Greece. He spoke after the Thursday’s meetings.

The EU summit on 27/28 June and what it means for the banking unionNordea
Three issues will dominate the agenda: 1) How to support lending to small and medium enterprises, 2) What to do against youth unemployment, 3) Progress on banking union. In this note, we focus on the banking union because whether it succeeds or fails will make a difference for financial markets over time.

Analysis: Creeping mistrust stops euro zone banks lending to peers across blocReuters
Euro zone banks are refusing to lend to peers in other countries in the common currency bloc, signaling a worrying fall in confidence that appears to have worsened since the Cyprus bailout earlier this year, data analyzed by Reuters showed.

Fiscal implications of the ECB’s bond-buying
Paul De Grauwe, Yuemei Ji: The monetary-fiscal policy connection is under scrutiny by the German Constitutional Court in the context of the ECB’s OMT bond-buying programme. This column argues that most analyses are deeply flawed by the misapplication of private-company default principles to the central bank. ECB bond-buying transforms public bonds into monetary base, and sovereign-default risk into inflation risk. The real question is: What is the non-inflationary limit to money-base expansion? This depends upon the economic situation and is much higher in the current liquidity-trap setting.

Germany regards European integration, of which the euro is the apotheosis, as a crucial national interest. The judges in Karlsruhe are wary about reaching any judgment that would conflict with this overriding foreign-policy objective.

Bad Loans Continue to Rise in Spain and ItalyMarc to Market

When Correlation Is CausationZH
Relationship between the surging unemployment rate of the OMT-bound Spain and its delinquent loan growth is hard to argue with.

IMF points to major risks in Portugal's path to recoverySober Look
The fund said it can't say with high probability that Portugal's debt is sustainable over the long term, and noted the country's finances are vulnerable to potential distress such as a deteriorating growth outlook and higher borrowing rates.

Spain: 2013 Article IV Consultation- Concluding Statement of the MissionIMF

Letter from the Cypriot President to the Troika slamming Cypriot bailoutOpen Europe
Cyprus demands revision of 'unjust' EU bailouteuobserver

Special: Fed WatchMoreLiver’s Daily
All the articles on the last week’s FOMC

IMF Article IV Consultation, concluding statement IMF
IMF Sees Fed QE Through 2013, Warns of Exit Plan ChallengesBB
U.S. Stocks Fall on IMF Outlook, Warning on Stimulus ExitBB
The IMF lowered its 2014 growth outlook and suggested that the Fed should continue its $85 billion a month bond buying until at least the end of 2013 and repeal government spending cuts.

Abenomics: Not so superThe Economist

Fixing Japan’s deflation requires labour-market
Ayako Saiki: Abenomics is all the rage. Japan’s GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.5% in the first quarter, the stock market went up by almost 30% since December, and despite some uncertainties, sentiments, consumption, and exports are all picking up. However inflation is at -0.9% and survey-based inflation expectation has remained flat. Is inflation going to happen at all? This column argues the answer crucially hinges upon the implementation of structural reforms, especially in the labour market.

Fitch says China credit bubble unprecedented in modern world historyThe Telegraph
China's shadow banking system is out of control and under mounting stress as borrowers struggle to roll over short-term debts, Fitch Ratings has warned.

When liquidity meets control in China, with credit crunch probabilityalphaville / FT

The end of the end of the end of the commodities supercycle is nigh, in Asiaalphaville / FT

China Snugs, Signals Banks Should Get Used to ItMarc to Market
China's central bank continues its own snugging operation, keeping the money market rates at lofty levels.

China's Red Flags – ZH
China's central bank's inaction can have dire consequences – Sober Look
China Interbank Market Freezes As Overnight Repo Explodes To 25% - ZH
China Money Rates Jump to Records as PBOC Lets Cash Crunch Build – BB
China Stocks Fall to 6-Month Low on Credit Crunch, Manufacturing – BB
Repo and Shibor Skyrocket, Could Trigger Bigger Unraveling – naked capitalism
Is it policy? China edition – alphaville / FT
Chinese Bank Bailed Out Through PBOC "Targeted Liquidity Operation"– ZH

An unwind in the great Chinese over-invoicing carry-trade?alphaville / FT
The popular explanation for the rise in Chinese repo rates is being linked to the government’s desire to rein in the shadow banking sector. That is to say the tightness is intentional. But what if it isn’t. What if it has more to do with the unwind of yet another carry trade?

China's Volcker shockFree exchange / The Economist
But when the banks then come begging for the funding they need to support their hidden balance sheets, they are once again at Mr Zhou's mercy. And so far, he has shown little.

The old Chinese model has run out of roadThe A-List / FT
Stephen King: Before the onset of the global financial crisis, China could be relied upon to export its way out of trouble. Year after year, its exports grew at an annual rate well in excess of 20 per cent. As its current account surplus rose, its economy expanded with a swagger that became the envy of the world. Now, however, China’s export growth has faded, its current account surplus has almost disappeared and Beijing has had to search for alternative sources of rapid economic expansion.

Credit Tightens in China as Central Bank Takes a Hard LineNYT
China’s financial system is in the throes of a cash squeeze as the government tries to restructure the economy and punish speculators, with interbank lending rates spiking on Thursday and bank-to-bank borrowing nearly stalled.

China rates spike again as banks scramble for fundsReuters
Chinese cash rates spiked as high as 25 percent for a second day on Friday as banks scrambled to secure cash, but fears of a broader banking crisis eased on speculation the central bank had quietly added funds to the market.

Multipliers in a monetary union and at the ZLBmainly macro

Global FX Strategy – A new paradigm?Nordea (pdf)
EURUSD has of late also been supported by higher peripheral bond yields, which attracts investors to EUR assets, hence supporting long EURUSD, – but is this correlation sustainable? History strongly suggests NO. This begs the question what will drive a change and how big will the impact be… The new paradigm could well be relative growth.

Inflated expectations deflatingNordea
Inflation is quickly becoming a topic again – not because of concerns the huge stimulus measures pursued by central banks would be creating inflation, but because the falling inflation rates are raising questions of whether central banks are doing enough. Bonds should thrive in an environment of falling inflation.

Bloomberg Reporters’ Practices Become Crucial Issue for CompanyNYT
Most journalists dream of uncovering government corruption, landing a big interview or winning a Pulitzer Prize. But those are not the goals that Thomas F. Secunda, who co-founded Bloomberg L.P. in 1982 with Michael R. Bloomberg, has in mind: “The only journalism that matters is the kind that moves markets,” Mr. Secunda told the senior staff of Bloomberg News

Suomi lisää löylyä, vaikka taju uhkaa lähteäJan Hurri / TalSa
Kun talouden kaikki keskeiset osat supistuvat, kokonaistuotanto ei voi muuta kuin supistua. Siksi kansalliset säästötalkoot ovat päätön yritys, joka ei voi onnistua ilman taantuman pahenemista. Tätä Suomen hallitus kuitenkin yrittää. Hallitus lyö lisää löylyä, vaikka löylykisa uhkaa viedä tajun.

Björn Wahlroos: EU:n liittovaltio on pahin uhka Suomelle Aamulehti
Wahlroos: Tärkeimmästä asiasta vaiettiin KultarannassaHS
Nordean hallituksen puheenjohtaja Björn Wahlroosin mielestä presidentin järjestämässä keskustelussa pitäisi keskittyä Euroopan talouteen ja sen rahapolitiikkaan, mutta niihin ei avauskeskustelussa kajottu.

Unioni ei kaadu kertarysäykselläHS Pääkirjoitus
Ensimmäisessä vaihtoehdossa EU voittaa vaikeutensa ja siitä tulee liittovaltio, Euroopan Yhdysvallat. Tämä vie toki vuosikymmeniä. Toinen vaihtoehto on, että unionia ryhdytään rauhassa purkamaan. Sekin kestää kymmeniä vuosia.

Miksi euro vahvistuu dollariin nähden – selitys yhdellä kuvalla tyhmyri

Puheen Iltapäivä: Mielipiteitä Suomen nykytilaan ja tulevaisuuteenYLE
Kirjailija ja kolumnisti Kalle Isokallio kertoi Puheen iltapäivässä totuuksia Suomen tilasta. Toimittaja Miia Krause

Heikki Koskenkylän analyysi EU:n ja IMF:n väittelystä - kumpi on oikeassa?PS
Onko Kreikalla velkasaneeraus edessä? Suomen Pankin osastopäällikkönä toiminut valtiotieteiden tohtori Heikki Koskenkylä arvioi EU:n ja IMF:n kriisinhoitomenetelmiä ja kertoo kantansa Suomen asemasta mahdollisessa velkasaneeraustilanteessa.

Haluammeko kieltäytyä lisälaskuista?Peter Nyberg

Analyysi: Laittaako Saksan perustuslakituomioistuin suitset EKP:lle?Perussuomalaiset

Pitkän linjan talousvaikuttajat rummuttavat eurokritiikkiäTalSa
Eurokriisi on kestänyt kohta neljä vuotta. Kriisi on saanut Suomessakin useat eläköityneet virkamiehet kritisoimaan eurokriisin ratkaisutoimia ja koko rahaliittoa.

Pääkirjoitus: Kultarannan pöydästä löytyi jokaiselle jotakinIL
Eliitin aiempi eurohype on muuttunut vähättelyksi ja synkistelyksi.

Ulkolinja: Stora Enson tuplakirjanpito?YLE Areena
Vuonna 2000 Stora Enso teki historiansa huonoimmat kaupat ostamalla yhdysvaltalaisen Consolidated Papers -yrityksen. Syntyi miljarditappiot, jotka Stora Enso pimitti kirjanpitoonsa, paljastaa yrityksen entinen työntekijä