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Wednesday, June 5

5th Jun - US Close: IMF Confesses

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT
US: Stocks Slammed On Best Day For Bonds In 4 Months ZH

The euro: An inconvenient truthTradingFloor
Juhani Huopainen: Political parties that still believe that the euro is a success story, that Greece will pay its debts and that the burden will have to be shared, are not credible or rational. Honesty instead would be a good foundation for co-operation and a new era.

Yes, Europe really is in the throes of austerityWonkblog / WP

April retail trade -0.5% in euro area, -0.7% in EU27Eurostat

Q1 GDP (2nd est.) -0.2%, EU27 -0.1% Eurostat
Y-o-Y -1.1% and -0.7% respectively

Research Euroland: Fact Book FinlandDanske Bank (pdf)

Finland: Odd GDP figuresNordea
GDP fell in Q1, Finland is now officially in recession. Exports, consumption and investment up, imports down. The trade balance shows a cumulative deficit in January to February

More of the same expected from the ECB despite eurozone economic malaiseOpen Europe

Will He or Won’t He? The Negative Rates Debate and the ECBWSJ
Analysts say the time for such a radical step hasn’t arrived yet–and possibly never will.

Game of negative ratesalphaville / FT
Morgan Stanley on negative rates: Bank and insurer earnings, and thereby solvency, could come under additional pressure. Banks would need to re-price credit further.

On crossing the ECB interest-rate streamsalphaville / FT
The ECB could get really controversial and leave both its deposit and reserve account rate at zero, while setting its refinancing rate at a negative rate instead.

ECB To Launch EU-Wide Audit Of Bank's Balance SheetsZH
France and Italy are fighting against ambitious plans by the ECB to basically 'externally audit' 140 banks across the EU representing 80% of Europe's banking assets. The implementation of the project (by the head of financial stability at the central bank) appears to have two main drivers. First, to understand which banks' balance sheets are inhibiting lending (and why); and second, to ensure there is clarification on taxpayer-funded bailouts versus shareholders and depositors taking losses first.

Latvia’s Euro Zone Entry to Move ECB Closer to Big ChangesWSJ
Latvia's brightening prospects for euro entry as soon as next year would push the ECB closer to big changes in the way it decides monetary policy.

Latvia Is Approved by the European Union for Euro AdoptionPIIE
On June 5, the European Commission and the ECB issued their convergence reports on Latvia, declaring that it is ready to adopt the euro starting on January 1, 2014.

Convergence Report 2013, economic and legal convergence of LatviaECB

BizDaily: Who would want to join the European UnionBBC (mp3)
Croatia's Central Bank chief tells us why he'll be celebrating when Croatia signs up to join the European Union and issues a warning to the rest of the continent.

Ignored Many Flawsalphaville / FT

IMF Admits It Is An Idiot And A LiarZH

Falling Inflation ExpectationsTim Duy’s Fed Watch

More Signals of Slumping ManufacturingWSJ
Trouble in the manufacturing sector has been mounting for months, and several signals this week indicated the pain could continue into the summer.

Fed’s Beige Book Shows ‘Modest to Moderate’ Growth in U.S.BB
Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity "increased at a modest to moderate pace" – Calculated Risk
Fed’s Beige Book: District-by-District Summary – WSJ

ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Report: Slightly Faster Growth in May – dshort
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates slightly faster expansion in May – Calculated Risk
ISM Non-Manufacturing Rises More Than Expected – Bespoke

Non-Manufacturing ISM Comes In Line, Factory Orders Miss: Inventory To Sales Highest Since October 2009 – ZH

Abenomics Won’t Be ’Magic Bullet’ for Japan, Says Johnson of MITBB

Gloom over Abe speech hits Asia EMsbeyondbrics / FT

The Yen’s Abenomics Ride Seems OverWSJ
Japan’s stock market, which had staged the largest six-month rally in its history, started to collapse two weeks ago, with the Nikkei index losing nearly 20% of its value from the peak since then. And now it looks like that slide in the yen, which has been so key to the success of Mr. Abe’s policies, may also now be over.

This is what a broken arrow might look likealphaville / FT

Carry on Nordea
The recent considerable rise in rates looks to have taken place too fast, as concerns that the Fed would be close to scaling down stimulus measures have been driving markets. The rest of the week will be characterized by several important events and economic data, providing several candidates for a trigger lower in rates.

Has BIS Found the Solution to Too Big to Fail?WSJ
It’s a refrain you will hear from politicians, regulators, even bankers. Nearly five years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there is still no answer to the problem of banks that are Too-Big-To-Fail.

BKT -0,1% Q-Q, -2,1% Y-o-Y prosenttia vuoden takaisestaTilastokeskus

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