Roundups &
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville / FT
EUROPE
The euro: An inconvenient truth – TradingFloor
Juhani Huopainen: Political
parties that still believe that the euro is a success story, that Greece will pay its debts and that the burden will
have to be shared, are not credible or rational. Honesty instead would be a
good foundation for co-operation and a new era.
Yes, Europe
really is in the throes of austerity – Wonkblog
/ WP
April retail trade -0.5% in euro area, -0.7% in
EU27 – Eurostat
Q1 GDP (2nd est.) -0.2%, EU27 -0.1% – Eurostat
Y-o-Y -1.1% and -0.7%
respectively
GDP fell in Q1, Finland is now officially in recession. Exports,
consumption and investment up, imports down. The trade balance shows a
cumulative deficit in January to February
ECB
More of the same expected from the ECB despite
eurozone economic malaise – Open
Europe
Will He or Won’t He? The Negative Rates Debate
and the ECB – WSJ
Analysts say the time
for such a radical step hasn’t arrived yet–and possibly never will.
Game of negative rates – alphaville
/ FT
Morgan Stanley on
negative rates: Bank and insurer earnings, and thereby solvency, could come
under additional pressure. Banks would need to re-price credit further.
On crossing the ECB interest-rate streams – alphaville
/ FT
The ECB could get
really controversial and leave both its deposit and reserve account rate at
zero, while setting its refinancing rate at a negative rate instead.
ECB To Launch EU-Wide Audit Of Bank's Balance Sheets – ZH
France and Italy are fighting against ambitious plans by the ECB to basically
'externally audit' 140 banks across the EU representing 80% of Europe's banking assets. The implementation of the
project (by the head of financial stability at the central bank) appears to
have two main drivers. First, to understand which banks' balance sheets are
inhibiting lending (and why); and second, to ensure there is clarification on
taxpayer-funded bailouts versus shareholders and depositors taking losses first.
NEW
MEMBERS
Latvia's brightening prospects for euro entry as soon as next year would push
the ECB closer to big changes in the way it decides monetary policy.
On June 5, the
European Commission and the ECB issued their convergence reports on Latvia, declaring that it is ready to adopt the euro
starting on January 1, 2014.
BizDaily: Who would want to join the European
Union – BBC
(mp3)
Croatia's Central Bank chief tells us why he'll be celebrating when Croatia signs up to join the European Union and issues
a warning to the rest of the continent.
IMF
FIASCO
Ignored Many Flaws – alphaville
/ FT
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/06/05/1525422/ignorance-most-foolish/
IMF Admits It Is An Idiot And A Liar – ZH
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-05/imf-admits-it-idiot-and-liar
UNITED STATES
Falling Inflation Expectations – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
More Signals of Slumping Manufacturing – WSJ
Trouble in the
manufacturing sector has been mounting for months, and several signals this
week indicated the pain could continue into the summer.
Fed's Beige Book:
Economic activity "increased at a modest to moderate pace" – Calculated
Risk
Fed’s Beige Book:
District-by-District Summary – WSJ
ISM Non-Manufacturing
Business Report: Slightly Faster Growth in May – dshort
ISM Non-Manufacturing
Index indicates slightly faster expansion in May – Calculated
Risk
ISM Non-Manufacturing
Rises More Than Expected – Bespoke
Non-Manufacturing ISM
Comes In Line, Factory Orders Miss: Inventory To Sales Highest Since October
2009 – ZH
ASIA
The Yen’s Abenomics Ride Seems Over – WSJ
Japan’s stock market, which had staged the largest six-month rally in its
history, started to collapse two weeks ago, with the Nikkei index losing nearly
20% of its value from the peak since then. And now it looks like that slide in
the yen, which has been so key to the success of Mr. Abe’s policies, may also
now be over.
This is what a broken arrow might look like – alphaville
/ FT
OTHER
Carry on – Nordea
The recent
considerable rise in rates looks to have taken place too fast, as concerns that
the Fed would be close to scaling down stimulus measures have been driving
markets. The rest of the week will be characterized by several important events
and economic data, providing several candidates for a trigger lower in rates.
Has BIS Found the Solution to Too Big to Fail? – WSJ
It’s a refrain you
will hear from politicians, regulators, even bankers. Nearly five years after
the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there is still no answer to the problem of
banks that are Too-Big-To-Fail.
FINNISH
BKT -0,1%
Q-Q, -2,1% Y-o-Y prosenttia vuoden takaisesta – Tilastokeskus
Työttömyysturvan
vai työsuhteen ongelma? – Hannu
Visti