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Monday, June 17

17th Jun - EU Open: FedFedFed....

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: Euro Becomes the Port in a Storm – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Strong Nikkei Close Should Help Local Stocks – WSJ

3 Numbers to Watch: EU int'l. trade, US NY Fed index and NAHB HMITradingFloor
The market will be eager to learn if the recent gains in Eurozone exports rolled on in today’s trade report for April. Later, US data provides fresh perspective on manufacturing’s recent weakness and the housing market’s resilience.

Market Preview: Eurozone trade balance in focusTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open mostly lower Monday. With a light economic calendar today, investors will eye the EU trade balance data for April. Also, the US NAHB housing market index will be keenly tracked for hints on the housing sector.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Interesting week, with FOMC meeting Wednesday and Flash PMI in China and the euro area on Thursday. Today’s US Empire index will be the first regional business survey released for June.
It has been falling three months in a row to -1.43, reflecting weaker industrial activity. Today and tomorrow, a G8 Summit.

Pelko palaa pätkittäin * Fed jättää vaihtoehdot avoimiksi kesän yli * Pelot levottomuuksien lisääntymisestä Lähi-idässä nostivat öljyn hintaa


The Plight Of Europe's Banking Sector, Its €650 Billion State Guarantee, And The "Urgent Need" To RecapitalizeZH

Scandi markets ahead: Norges Bank monetary policy meeting in focus Danske Bank (pdf)

Russian Cyprus round-tripping: Corruption-linked money laundering
Russian involvement in Cyprus was widely recognised during the acute phase of the most recent EZ crisis. This column argues that some of this is driven by corruption-linked money laundering. Using official Russian statistics, the authors estimate a standard model of FDI location to identify usual patterns related to nations with lax anti-money laundering measures such as Cyprus and the BVI. Funds from such nations were biased towards locating investments in the most corrupt Russian regions compared to a group of genuine foreign investors.

Housing, Inflation and Fed, Oh My!WSJ
For most investors, the two-day Fed policy meeting is this week's main event. Policymakers have said future decisions will be data-driven, and this week brings new readings on factory activity, housing and inflation.

FOMC Projections Preview: Disinflation WatchCalculated Risk
I expect no change to policy at this meeting, but a slight downgrade to the economic projections - and some concern about inflation (but probably not enough to increase the size of QE3 purchases).

FX Comment: taper…or holiday?Nordea
Bernanke almost has no choice here but to act dove on June 19th FOMC meeting – or else, none of us can peacefully go on summer holiday… You know the worry is on high level when you hear IMF prompting to keep up the QE in large for now while continuing preparation to exit “smoothly”.

Will Fed Bring a Breather From Yen’s Roller-Coaster Ride?WSJ
f the FOMC meet adds momentum to talk of a quantitative easing exit or fails to clarify its position, that will likely push the dollar even further down against the yen, putting traders on another lap of their roller-coaster ride.

Chart that seems to violate key principles of money creationSober Look
A clear divergence in trends of the total loans and leases on US banks' balance sheets and the broad money supply measure (M2). Loan balance growth is slowing, while the money supply keeps growing at a steady rate of around 7%.

6 Weeks Of Hawkishness And 4 Dovish Expectations For This Week's FOMCZH
Goldman Sachs: While we do not expect the committee to deviate much from the existing message and keep all options open, we anticipate that Fed officials will, on the margin, try to calm markets at the June 18-19 FOMC meeting.

Prisoner's Dilemma: Will Investors And The Fed Collaborate?ZH
Citi's credit team: 'widening' in credit spreads but is just as useful in considering the weakness in equity markets since the capital structure arbitrage-led relationship between equity and credit as liabilities on the balance sheet of a 'firm' means that any disconnect cannot last long.

QE down underalphaville / FT
Another day, another Aussie GDP downgrade. BofA Merrill Lynch isn’t forecasting a money printing bonanza from the Reserve Bank of Australia. He’s just saying it is a possibility if the Australian slips into recession in the second half of 2015.

Mid-year Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2013Calculated Risk
At the end of last year, I posted Ten Economic Questions for 2013. I followed up with a brief post on each question. The goal was to provide an overview of what I expected in 2013 (I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think will happen - and understand why I was wrong). By request, here is a mid-year review (a little before mid-year).

Liianko suurin odotuksin loppukuun puoluekokoukseen?Henri Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro